Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

So Theresa May has outlined the next steps:
1) 12th March: Meaningful vote on her deal (again...nothing changed since November or the vote in January)
2) 13th March: If that fails, vote on leaving the EU without a deal
3) 13th March: If that also fails, vote on instructing the government to seek an Article 50 extension from the EU

The last bit is the new part. The first time she has conceded that they might need more time. I guess the EU will grant her an extension even if there is no clear next steps (different red lines, GE, 2nd referendum) just to show goodwill and not be blamed for a no-deal Brexit. However, the European Parliament elections are scheduled end of May...

[crazy canuck]

The rest of the world is counting on the EU to be the adults in the room to provide an extension and wait out the child finishing their time out (ie Parliament rescinding its notice that it wishes to leave the EU).

[Valmy]

So Theresa May has outlined the next steps:
1) 12th March: Meaningful vote on her deal (again...nothing changed since November or the vote in January)
2) 13th March: If that fails, vote on leaving the EU without a deal
3) 13th March: If that also fails, vote on instructing the government to seek an Article 50 extension from the EU

The last bit is the new part. The first time she has conceded that they might need more time. I guess the EU will grant her an extension even if there is no clear next steps (different red lines, GE, 2nd referendum) just to show goodwill and not be blamed for a no-deal Brexit. However, the European Parliament elections are scheduled end of May...

That seems like a reasonably plan. It would be nice if at least somebody would vote on a No-Deal Brexit.

[Iormlund]

That seems like a reasonably plan.

That last point is not. It makes zero sense to delay exit unless there's a new referendum or other, concrete act of Parliament.

[The Minsky Moment]

It only makes no sense if you are looking at it logically, but that logic fled the jurisdiction a long time ago.

It makes sense as May laying the political groundwork for an extension.  She knows her plan will likely fail again.  She is guessing Commons will vote against a hard exit. Then she can say she has no choice other than to seek to extend and get political cover for it.  The EU will likely go along in the forlorn hope that something resembling a leader will arise out of Britain in the next year. Perhaps King Arthur?

[Iormlund]

It only makes no sense if you are looking at it logically

Mea culpa. 

... Perhaps King Arthur?

We can only hope.

[HisMajestyBOB]

It makes sense as May laying the political groundwork for an extension.  She knows her plan will likely fail again.  She is guessing Commons will vote against a hard exit. Then she can say she has no choice other than to seek to extend and get political cover for it. 

[PJL]

My guess is that May although promising only an A50 extension to June, won't actually ask for a specific deadline before the vote (if only to keep the pretense of saying we will leave on 29th March and not also to presume that such a vote will succeed). However, if the extension vote passes, the EU & May will 'argue' about how long it should be, but May will end up accepting their offer that was mentioned a few days ago of staying in the EU until the end of 2020 while a new post leave agreement is worked on. UK MEPs will be suspended or something like that (so effectively frozen as they are in its makeup) until we leave.

The bonus for May is that the deal means she is safe for another year (until there is another leadership challenge in December). I doubt very much the ERG will rock the boat voting against her in a VONC. The DUP will probably end up accepting this as well.

[crazy canuck]

It only makes no sense if you are looking at it logically, but that logic fled the jurisdiction a long time ago.

It makes sense as May laying the political groundwork for an extension.  She knows her plan will likely fail again.  She is guessing Commons will vote against a hard exit. Then she can say she has no choice other than to seek to extend and get political cover for it.  The EU will likely go along in the forlorn hope that something resembling a leader will arise out of Britain in the next year. Perhaps King Arthur?

Now you are making the mistake of thinking about this logically and projecting that thought process on May.

My guess, based on her public pronouncements, is she has calculated that threatening a delay will make it more likely that her proposition will be approved by Parliament.

From the EU perspective, they have nothing to lose in waiting for a more sane leader to emerge - it does not necessarily need to be the once and future king.

[mongers]

Parliamentary strangeness now just limited to current situation, how about this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._P._O'Connor

O'Connor was elected Member of Parliament for Galway Borough in the 1880 general election, as a representative of the Home Rule League (which was under the leadership of William Shaw, though virtually led by Charles Stewart Parnell, who would win the party's leadership a short time later). At the next general election in 1885, he was returned both for Galway and for the Liverpool Scotland constituencies, which had a large Irish population. He chose to sit for Liverpool, and represented that constituency in the House of Commons from 1885 until his death in 1929. This was the only constituency outside the island of Ireland ever to return an Irish Nationalist Party MP. O'Connor continued to be re-elected in Liverpool under this label unopposed in the 1918, 1922, 1923, 1924 and 1929 general elections.

[Zanza]

I think there is one major flaw in May's proposal of three votes above. I fully expect the HoC to reject all three: against her deal, against no deal and against extension. It would not be the first time that they just reject all available realistic possibilities and pretend there is a fictional better option. 

[Admiral Yi]

Parliamentary strangeness now just limited to current situation, how about this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._P._O'Connor

O'Connor was elected Member of Parliament for Galway Borough in the 1880 general election, as a representative of the Home Rule League (which was under the leadership of William Shaw, though virtually led by Charles Stewart Parnell, who would win the party's leadership a short time later). At the next general election in 1885, he was returned both for Galway and for the Liverpool Scotland constituencies, which had a large Irish population. He chose to sit for Liverpool, and represented that constituency in the House of Commons from 1885 until his death in 1929. This was the only constituency outside the island of Ireland ever to return an Irish Nationalist Party MP. O'Connor continued to be re-elected in Liverpool under this label unopposed in the 1918, 1922, 1923, 1924 and 1929 general elections.

This is a bit of a digression, but when did the Irish get the vote?

[Valmy]

After Catholic Emancipation...which was...during the mid 19th century at some point.

Edit: It was this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Catholic_Relief_Act_1829

[mongers]

Parliamentary strangeness now just limited to current situation, how about this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._P._O'Connor

O'Connor was elected Member of Parliament for Galway Borough in the 1880 general election, as a representative of the Home Rule League (which was under the leadership of William Shaw, though virtually led by Charles Stewart Parnell, who would win the party's leadership a short time later). At the next general election in 1885, he was returned both for Galway and for the Liverpool Scotland constituencies, which had a large Irish population. He chose to sit for Liverpool, and represented that constituency in the House of Commons from 1885 until his death in 1929. This was the only constituency outside the island of Ireland ever to return an Irish Nationalist Party MP. O'Connor continued to be re-elected in Liverpool under this label unopposed in the 1918, 1922, 1923, 1924 and 1929 general elections.

This is a bit of a digression, but when did the Irish get the vote?

You guess is a good as mine.

IIRC Irish citizens resident in the UK, have always had the right to vote in UK elections since the common travel area* came into force.


* or whatever it was originally called.

[Admiral Yi]

Well that certainly puts a different spin on the Easter Uprising.  I had always just assumed the Micks were apartheided.