Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

I would go with dishonest. They are targetting voters.

The extent to which most of the politicians care far more for themselves or their party than for the country is quite shocking; in the main they are a disgusting rabble.

I guess so but don't they think voters will still toss them when it doesn't work out? All well and good to scapegoat the EU but once Britain leaves, who is left to blame?

[Richard Hakluyt]

They will blame the EU for being intransigent foreigners I expect. It also helps that duffer Corbyn is the alternative.

[Tamas]

I would go with dishonest. They are targetting voters.

The extent to which most of the politicians care far more for themselves or their party than for the country is quite shocking; in the main they are a disgusting rabble.

I guess so but don't they think voters will still toss them when it doesn't work out? All well and good to scapegoat the EU but once Britain leaves, who is left to blame?

Well I guess the more disconnected the UK will be from the EU, the easier it will be to blame all future hardship on them.

[The Brain]

"God punish the EU!"

[garbon]

I would go with dishonest. They are targetting voters.

The extent to which most of the politicians care far more for themselves or their party than for the country is quite shocking; in the main they are a disgusting rabble.

I guess so but don't they think voters will still toss them when it doesn't work out? All well and good to scapegoat the EU but once Britain leaves, who is left to blame?

Well I guess the more disconnected the UK will be from the EU, the easier it will be to blame all future hardship on them.

At some point, a voter might want things to actually change for the better though, no? Post-Brexit Railing against the EU won't ever change that.

[The Larch]

At this point, I can only foresee these scenarios:

1) Crash & Burn. No deal is possible, hard Brexiteers rejoice, everybody else is miserable. Risk of NI leaving the UK to rejoin the Republic, risk of a new Scottish independence referendum.
2) May (or somebody else if she gets couped) cuts ties with the hard Brexiteers and reaches some kind of arrangement with Labour for a reasonable deal with the EU (Norway model, or something similar). Brexiteers might/will split from the Tories (and/or join UKIP), government might fall (unless supported by Labour, maybe creating a national unity government), bloody turbulent political atmosphere in the UK for the foreseeable future.
3) May (or somebody else if she gets couped) falls on her sword, reneges from the whole process and disavows the referendum. Something like "as no reasonable agreement for Brexit could be reached and no-deal would be unfathomably terrible, I'm revoking the triggering of article 50, given that the referendum was merely consultive". As in the previous one, (even higher) risk of Tory split, fall of government, turbulent political atmosphere in the UK, the whole shebang and even more.

Optionally 3) can be provoked by a "Remain" result in a hypothetical 2nd referendum. Admitedly, both 2) & 3) are rather fantasy-like and increasingly so as time goes on.

Thoughts? 

[The Brain]

Can you revoke triggering article 50? I know some people say yes but I don't fully understand the reasoning.

[The Larch]

Can you revoke triggering article 50? I know some people say yes but I don't fully understand the reasoning.

Yup.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Both Northern Ireland and Scotland rely on extensive subsidies from England to balance their budgets; once we are in a post-brexit recession I think they will balk at further economic pain.

[Josquius]

Both Northern Ireland and Scotland rely on extensive subsidies from England to balance their budgets; once we are in a post-brexit recession I think they will balk at further economic pain.

I'm not so sure.
It was close enough in Scotland even when independence meant leaving the EU.
In Ireland...well. They already spent decades pre Good Friday agreement blowing stuff up and destroying their image and economy.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The deficit in Scotland is nearly 8% compared to the UK's 2%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/22/scotland-cuts-its-deficit-but-is-still-outspending-the-uk

There would have to be huge cuts in public expenditure there if independence took place. In addition their economy is far more enmeshed with England's than the UK economy is with that of the EU.

I take the line that they are perfectly entitled to independence if they want it but the economic figures make pretty grim reading.

[Josquius]

The deficit in Scotland is nearly 8% compared to the UK's 2%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/22/scotland-cuts-its-deficit-but-is-still-outspending-the-uk

There would have to be huge cuts in public expenditure there if independence took place. In addition their economy is far more enmeshed with England's than the UK economy is with that of the EU.

I take the line that they are perfectly entitled to independence if they want it but the economic figures make pretty grim reading.

As the brexit referendum shows economic logic tends not to be much of an argument for many.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, fair enough.

[Tamas]

May is speaking at No. 10 now.

The prime minister is speaking now in Downing Street. She says both sides want a deal but there are two areas where the UK and the EU are "a long way apart."

She says the EU is still only offering two options on the future economic relationship.

May says one option is the EEA - which means abiding by all EU rules, "uncontrolled immigration from the EU" and no trade deal with other countries. She says it would "make a mockery" of the EU referendum result.

She says the second option was a basic free trade agreement for Britain and Northern Ireland remaining in the customs union, permanently separated from the rest of the UK.

She says a customs border would not respect that Northern Ireland is "an integral part of the United Kingdom... it something I will never agree to."

May says that both options would be "a bad deal... I have always said no deal is better than a bad deal."

She says she has treated the EU "with nothing but respect" and says that she expects the same.

"We now need to hear from the EU what the real alternative is and we can discuss them."

May says she wants to clarify several issues. She says she wants to be clear that the rights of EU citizens will be protected in the event of no deal.

She says to the people of Northern Ireland that they will do everything to prevent a hard border with the Irish republic.

She also says the EU referendum was the biggest democratic exercise in the country's history and said for over two years she has worked "day and night" and worked to "bring people with me."

[Tamas]

Good comment:

Hehehe...this day was always coming: the UK government 'going live' to blame the EU for the completely predictable consequences of the British Brexit vote. Yawn