Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Well, this bodes well:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-theresa-may-defeated-by-lords-over-staying-in-the-customs-union-2018-4?r=US&IR=T

We might well get a Norway style situation afterall. Hard to stay in the customs union without keeping free movement.

LONDON — Theresa May has suffered a major defeat on her plans to leave the Customs Union after peers voted for an amendment to the Brexit bill that could force the government to retain customs ties with the EU.

The House of Lords voted by a huge majority of 348 to 225 for an amendment to the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill which could force May to leave the door open for continued participation in a Customs Union with the EU — something she has previously explicitly ruled out.

The amendment, which will now pass back to the Commons "enables the United Kingdom to continue participating in a customs union with the EU."

The defeat means the bill will now pass back to the House of Commons where 10 Conservative MPs have already joined with opposition parties in a related attempt to force May to reverse her position on the customs union.

Membership of the customs union is something the prime minister has repeatedly refused to commit to, and which could severely threaten the unity of her own party. So how likely are MPs to back the amendment?

Why does May oppose the customs union?
The European Union's customs union is a trade agreement between member countries who agree not to impose tariffs on each other's goods and to impose common external tariffs on goods from outside the customs union. It means goods can move freely within the customs area without checks.

In February, Labour's Brexit secretary Keir Starmer confirmed the party supported membership of "a" customs union on the basis that it was "the only way realistically" for the UK to retain tariff-free access to the EU, and limit the economic damage inflicted by leaving the single market. Membership of a customs union would also help to resolve the Irish border issue, which remains a looming problem in negotiations.

May suggested that such a deal would "actually betray the vote of the British people," because it would limit the UK's ability to strike its own free trade deals.

Some of her colleagues have different ideas, with cabinet ministers including Philip Hammond and Greg Clarke have reportedly started pressing for customs union membership. Around 10 rebel Tory MPs also appear likely to back a vote in favour of the customs union — and against the prime minister — on the basis they have sponsored a similar amendment to the Trade Bill.

The question is whether the government can persuade enough of those rebels to retreat.

Are MPs likely to vote for customs union membership?
"It's not clear where some of these Tory waiverers stand. Whips will be working overtime to try and figure out the lay of the land," said Professor Anand Menon, director at UK in a Changing Europe, a Brexit think-tank.

He said the issue was further complicated by the fact that some Brexit-supporting Labour MPs could vote with the government against their own party. "Labour might be whipped on it, but that wouldn't stop Labour Brexiters from taking their own position, and some Labour Brexiters don't want us in a customs union," he said.

The government's success in defeating the amendment will ultimately depend on progress in EU negotiations, Menon said.

"If the government is serious about defeating this amendment, it has to persuade some waverers that its own "bespoke" Brexit deal will fly — that we don't need to be in "the" or "a" customs union to get what we want," he said.

That, in turn, could depend on the tone of EU negotiators. If the EU Commission moves to rule out May's vision of a "bespoke" customs arrangement before the vote, it will be hard for her to persuade Tory rebels to vote against the customs union amendment.

The fact the House of Lords voted in favour of the amendment is significant in itself, according to Baroness Smith, shadow leader in the House of Lords. She told an audience at an Institute for Government event on Monday that the Lords had voted for amendments to the Article 50 bill last year because they believed there was a majority in the House of Commons for them, and said peers also believed there was a majority for the customs union amendment, amongst others.

When will a vote be held?
May is unlikely to hold a vote on the amendment before local elections in May due to the risk of Tory infighting, said Professor Menon.

Beyond that, the date is anyone's guess, although it could be before the EU Council in June, where the UK is expected to have made some progress on the Irish border issue. The vote would have to take place well before October, when the UK and EU expect to finish negotiating a deal on the terms of withdrawal.

What would a successful vote mean for Brexit?
The government's thinking on the significance of the amendment remains unclear, but a Cabinet minister told the Independent on Wednesday that they could "live with" the amendment because it wasn't "strictly prescriptive."

That reflects the fact that the language of the amendment is somewhat vague: it would, in full, require "the government to lay before parliament a statement outlining the steps taken to negotiate an arrangement which enables UK to continue participating in a customs union."

Membership of "a" customs union could be interpreted in a large number of ways — and it raises the prospect that the government could simply interpret the amendment as a mandate to negotiate the kind of "customs partnership" that she is currently seeking.

At any rate, Brexit watchers now believe May's position on the customs union could be the next to reverse.

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at the highly respected political consultancy Eurasia Group, told clients in an email last week that customs union membership is now the "basecase" because it is the only means by which to avoid the creation of a new internal border in the Irish sea between the UK and Northern Ireland.

Whether the amendment will be the blow which forces the issue remains to be seen.

[mongers]

Well whoever took the landing card decision it was still a stupid thing to do.

If it wasn't May, it doesn't diminish criticism that Lammy made so powerfully in the commons.

[Tamas]

Well, wasn't the reasoning for destroying was that it's up to the immigrant to prove he/she is in the country legally, and not to the Home Office?

It just shows off the general attitude they have toward dirty foreigners there.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I would be very interested to know who ordered the destruction of the cards. It is totally against normal Civil service practice; they normally hoard all kinds of stuff "just in case".

[Josquius]

I wonder what the solution is.
Push back the date and create some kind of general purpose amnesty for those who can prove they've been in the UK since the 1980s?

[Josquius]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-immigration-studies-suppress-uk-workers-wages-jobs-vince-cable-prime-minister-liberal-a7932001.html

Just Cable saying it for now but interesting if true.

Studies found that immigration doesn't affect wages. The Tories hushed it up as it went against their narrative.

[Tamas]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-immigration-studies-suppress-uk-workers-wages-jobs-vince-cable-prime-minister-liberal-a7932001.html

Just Cable saying it for now but interesting if true.

Studies found that immigration doesn't affect wages. The Tories hushed it up as it went against their narrative.

Are you implying that bloody foreigners aren't ruining everything? What a load of bollocks. Project fear!!!!

[Valmy]

Are you implying that bloody foreigners aren't ruining everything? What a load of bollocks. Project fear!!!!

Hey it is your fault for being willing to work for bloody foreigner wages.

[garbon]

My bloody foreigner wage is alright.

[Tamas]

Are you implying that bloody foreigners aren't ruining everything? What a load of bollocks. Project fear!!!!

Hey it is your fault for being willing to work for bloody foreigner wages.

To be fair, I can totally see that on my wife's field (science/chemistry kind of thing). She is doing okay now, but a LOT of people with various chemistry degrees that had to be a major PITA to get are earning ridiculously low wages while performing highly skilled work, at least in my opinion. And they seem to be almost exclusively immigrants. It is the level of their bosses where the ranks are suddenly awash with natives.

[Josquius]

Don't think immigration can be blamed for that one though.
Most people who study a science want to be a scientist so even looking at domestic applicants there'll be more interested than jobs available.
I've heard it's the same in the US.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-immigration-studies-suppress-uk-workers-wages-jobs-vince-cable-prime-minister-liberal-a7932001.html

Just Cable saying it for now but interesting if true.

Studies found that immigration doesn't affect wages. The Tories hushed it up as it went against their narrative.

Cable claiming May "suppressed" academic studies sounds to me like one of those words used to make an innocuous act sound really ominous.

[Richard Hakluyt]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-immigration-studies-suppress-uk-workers-wages-jobs-vince-cable-prime-minister-liberal-a7932001.html

Just Cable saying it for now but interesting if true.

Studies found that immigration doesn't affect wages. The Tories hushed it up as it went against their narrative.

Cable claiming May "suppressed" academic studies sounds to me like one of those words used to make an innocuous act sound really ominous.

It means that Cable disagrees politically with May; little, if anything, more.

[Richard Hakluyt]

A further story of Home Office stupidity and intransigence :

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/25/arthur-snell-high-commissioner-baby-denied-uk-passport-2011

This clarification may not be needed, but a "High Commissioner" is what we call the British ambassador to a Commonwealth country.

[Tamas]

Amber Rudd has admitted there have been "internal targets" in the Home Office for the number of deportations they had to do.