Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

I'd forgotten about that.
Seems I did this already:



Need some better distinguisher between the tories and ukip, this one is true though unclear.

Interesting if the SNP win in Scotland....would really give them a mandate for a indy ref 2.

[garbon]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tim-farron-general-election-liberal-democrat-leader-snap-change-country-direction-chance-june-8-a7688486.html

Tim Farron: Lib Dem leader says snap election is 'chance to change direction of country'

Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has said Theresa May's call for a general election is "your chance to change the direction of your country."

He said in a statement: "If you want to avoid a disastrous Hard Brexit. If you want to keep Britain in the Single Market. If you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance.

"Only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority."

The Lib Dems have consistently called for a second referendum on the final Brexit deal Ms May achieves after negotiations with the European Union, and want to keep the UK in the European single market.

The Tories' 2015 general election victory saw the party gain several formerly Lib Dem seats in the south-west of England.

Ms May announced a snap general election for 8 June, saying: "We need a general election and we need one now."

She said a strong government was needed before pushing ahead with Brexit talks with the European Union.

[Gups]

Is parliament going to vote for new elections?

Yep. In some cases it will be turkeys voting for Xmas.

[Agelastus]

So, anyone laying bets on the degree of error of the opinion polls after all the "fixing"?

It will be interesting to see how close to "right" they actually are at the moment.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think that the potential errors are huge. There will be a lot of tactical voting, also the brexit thing is a huge single issue that could sway many votes. For once the election campaign should be very interesting.

ps only a bloody fool like Corbyn could lose this for Labour.

[Agelastus]

Re: Corbyn, I don't know - they do have serious structural problems in their vote even apart from his own "dubious" qualities.

Milliband was supposed to be the competent moderate, and look at the last election.

[Zanza]

I guess it is rather unlikely, but if the Tories lose this somehow and would need a coalition partner, things could be really convoluted, especially regarding Brexit. Unless the coalition partner is UKIP...

[Gups]

I guess it is rather unlikely, but if the Tories lose this somehow and would need a coalition partner, things could be really convoluted, especially regarding Brexit. Unless the coalition partner is UKIP...

It's massively unlikely. Some of the bookies aren't even taking bets on a Tory majority. Those that are offer odds of 1/10 on or worse.

Labour are in a terrible mess and a Brexit based campaign will exacerbate their divisions. They will have a dreadful campaign. UKIP are also a divided shambles. Lib Dems will improve on their dreadful 2015 position but will only challenge the Tories in a few places.

I'll be amazed if the Tories don't win a majority of 100+

[The Larch]

Would it be possible for the Lib-Dems to actually surge ahead of Labour?

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Lib Dems will be the serious party unequivocally calling for a rerun of the referendum..............has to be worth a few million votes.

[Gups]

Would it be possible for the Lib-Dems to actually surge ahead of Labour?

Possibly but very improbable. Labour are currently polling 25-30%, Lib Dems 7-12%.

[The Larch]

Would it be possible for the Lib-Dems to actually surge ahead of Labour?

Possibly but very improbable. Labour are currently polling 25-30%, Lib Dems 7-12%.

Mmm, I thought Labour was polling even lower than that.

[Richard Hakluyt]

This wiki page is pretty useful for UK polling :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

I particularly like the graph, which gives the general trend by averaging the most recent 10 polls.

[Tamas]

Corbyn actually supports the idea

Yeah, why wait for the unavoidable short term negative brexit consequences to hit the Tories in the teeth right before the 2020 elections, let's have one when they are the strongest!

I mean, I don't mind a Corbyn-led Labor crashing and burning but come on the guy is ridiculous.

[Agelastus]

I'm working, I'm bored and feeling in a silly mood; I just realised why May's waited to call it now when the date has to be in June.

Can't have May calling a May election, after all...