Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Goodbye Britain.
I'm struggling to think of another example of a country signing its own death warrant in such a way.

Don't know how you missed it, but we elected ours.

Yours is for 4 years.
Ours is for much longer

[Grallon]

Here's hoping that Brexit and the Trump Presidency will be the last hurrahs of the smallminded and scared.

Even now, after all that's happened, you can't acknowledge that these are symptoms are of much larger problem?


G.

[garbon]

Here's hoping that Brexit and the Trump Presidency will be the last hurrahs of the smallminded and scared.

Even now, after all that's happened, you can't acknowledge that these are symptoms are of much larger problem?


G.

Indeed, though I think we'll likely disagree on what the larger problem is.

[Valmy]

Even now, after all that's happened, you can't acknowledge that these are symptoms are of much larger problem?

Rapid technological and economic change.

[Grallon]

Even now, after all that's happened, you can't acknowledge that these are symptoms are of much larger problem?

Rapid technological and economic change.

Dislocation of the nations states; dispossession on a massive scale for the benefit of a tiny minority; stifling of the peoples under the novlang of multiculturalism and pc correctness which has become almost as bad as the Church' censure in its heydays...  One could argue that the flash mobs on twitter or other social media is the modern equivalent of the witch' hunts of old.  So here's to hoping Marine Le Pen wins the French election and provokes the implosion of the Euro zone.



G.

[Valmy]

So here's to hoping Marine Le Pen wins the French election and provokes the implosion of the Euro zone.

Why do Luddites and other reactionaries always think that destruction and chaos will somehow turn back the clock? Sorry bud the ancient times are going to stay ancient no matter what the politicians say.

[Josquius]

... No. Those are (part)  solutions to problems. Not the problems themselves.
Well except le pen. That's a problem..

[Duque de Bragança]

Even now, after all that's happened, you can't acknowledge that these are symptoms are of much larger problem?

Rapid technological and economic change.

Dislocation of the nations states; dispossession on a massive scale for the benefit of a tiny minority; stifling of the peoples under the novlang of multiculturalism and pc correctness which has become almost as bad as the Church' censure in its heydays...  One could argue that the flash mobs on twitter or other social media is the modern equivalent of the witch' hunts of old.  So here's to hoping Marine Le Pen wins the French election and provokes the implosion of the Euro zone.

G.

Mass, unchecked immigration came, crazy PC etc. came before both the Euro and the EU so I don't think this will help much.
People vote mostly for Marine Le Pen due to problems with immigration, criminality and islamism mostly. Older people, very much against the former three are still scared of her due namely to her anti-euro stance.
Some EU reform is of course needed e.g Bolkenstein directive.

[Josquius]

The problem:

http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,5922.0.html

[Zanza]

I predict that the Brexit talks will turn nasty before the end of the year and will fail next year. It will already fail over the financial obligations that the EU thinks Britain has even after Brexit based on their 45 year membership.

The EU will not offer the British a deal that fulfills anywhere close to what the Brexiteers promised and it will be much easier for the Brexiteers to blame the EU for that and tell the British public that the continentals are revengeful and mean-spirited rather than acknowledge that they lied when they made their promises.

This will severely damage the EU-British relationship for at least a generation.

I think just about the only thing both sides might be able to agree upon is some kind of limited permanent residency for all EU/British citizens in the respective territories. However, even that is probably just a 2nd class citizenship as they'll probably limit stuff like residency for foreign marriage partners or family members.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, hard brexit. It takes the EU 10 years to agree even when there is goodwill, I don't expect any deal at all.

[Barrister]

I don't know, the money the EU is seeking post-Brexit is a powerful inducement to reach some kind of arrangement.  I would think on a hard Brexit the UK's contributions to the EU hit zero immediately.  If the UK is willing to play ball on some decreasing payments over time there's some incentives on the EU to work towards an agreement.

[Zanza]

I don't know, the money the EU is seeking post-Brexit is a powerful inducement to reach some kind of arrangement.  I would think on a hard Brexit the UK's contributions to the EU hit zero immediately.  If the UK is willing to play ball on some decreasing payments over time there's some incentives on the EU to work towards an agreement.

The highest number I heard, 60 billion Euro, is about 0.5% of the EU annual GDP. Spread that over a few years and we are talking about less than 0.1% of the EU's GDP...
It's relevant for the commission, but it's small change for the member states. The EU has very lopsided finances compared to real federal states.

[Barrister]

I don't know, the money the EU is seeking post-Brexit is a powerful inducement to reach some kind of arrangement.  I would think on a hard Brexit the UK's contributions to the EU hit zero immediately.  If the UK is willing to play ball on some decreasing payments over time there's some incentives on the EU to work towards an agreement.

The highest number I heard, 60 billion Euro, is about 0.5% of the EU annual GDP. Spread that over a few years and we are talking about less than 0.1% of the EU's GDP...
It's relevant for the commission, but it's small change for the member states. The EU has very lopsided finances compared to real federal states.

Money always talks though.  Putting it in terms of % of GDP is always kind of misleading.  $60 billion Euro is almost a third of the EU's annual budget.

Anyways it was just a thought.  And if the UK is unwilling to negotiate a monetary payment post-Brexit (even if finite in length) then what I see as potential negotiating strength is thrown away.

[Zanza]

The 60 billion are not for one year though, but long-term obligations, e.g. pensions for Eurocrats. So you have to spread it out over decades to set it into relation to the total budget.

As I said, it is a lot of money for the EU Commission, but the shots in the EU are called in the Council, where the heads of government of the member states meet. The German federal government spends like 6-7 times what the EU spends, add in the German states and our state alone spends more than 10 times what the EU spends per year. Merkel will not blink over a few billion here and there.

If that's all the British have as a threat, their bluff will be called.