Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Yes and my own criticism but not only not competent but also doesn't really have a politics/set of beliefs. He's just very squishy soft left. So incompetent and rudderless.

I would add there's a piece in the New Statesman by the fantastic Ailbhe Rea which has some briefing against Starmer - but I've never seen this complaint about any previous PM that I can remember. Other PMs get criticised for being too in the weeds meaning decisions never get taken because they end up getting way too involved in policy detail and micro-managing - this was a common criticism of Sunak and Brown, for example. Someone said to her that Starmer has the opposite instinct "Keir doesn't want to know [...] it's how he led organisations in the past." I'd note he wasn't a popular Director of Public Prosecutions) and there may be some of that about it. But I can't think of another senior politician where that's been the complaint - and it maybe explains things like him disowning the "island of strangers" speech. He said he was busy at a NATO summit and he hadn't read it properly but he didn't agree with it. Honestly sounds like a bit of a nightmare boss - not particularly engaged and then likely to blame his team (who can't defend themselves).

I think the rudderless matters in our system where you have like a few hundred "political" people in the entire system (there isn't even a formal Prime Minister's Office and most minister have under 10 political people with them), in an organisation with tens of thousands of impartial, politically neutral career civil servants. If you don't have a clear vision of what you're trying to do the civil service don't know what sort of options to present up the ladder. So with Thatcher and Major want privatisation and reducing the size of the state, New Labour and Cameroons want public-private partnerships, Johnson wants something "levelling up-y", Sunak wants something tech focued - the civil service knows what sort of direction to explore and come up with policies for. With Starmer I don't think they have a clear idea what options they should be giving the PM - and I suspect that also because of that lack of a steer that decisions that should be made way down the chain have to get escalated because no-one really knows what Starmer wants.

It's why I think even Streeting might be better because he has a clear view of what he'd want to do - whether he could get the party to wear it is another matter. I'd add that as well as the Streisand effect they've also just had an excuse to have Streeting all over the TV today and he is a far better communicator than Starmer - just a bit more human. Asked if he'd rule out demanding Starmer to resign "Yes. And, you know, nor did I shoot JFK. I had nothing to do with Shergar and I don't think the moon landings were faked - certainly not by me."

[Valmy]

So we all thought no British government could be as incompetent as the Tories and Labour was like: hold my Newcastle?

[Sheilbh]

Britain will only join the EU on the same track as the United States will do the right thing, that is only after exhausting all the alternatives.  That's a long way off on the present timeline.

The restless shades of Harold MacMillan, Harold Wilson and Ted Heath have entered the chat.

I think that's probably right. However I think the EU would be wise to reject us because I think everyone else in Europe there is broad support across all parties and strands of public opinion for Europe as an idea and the European project. I think even with our most pro-European PMs the only one who was a true believer in European integration was Ted Heath. I don't think that consensus has ever existed in Britain and I think it's unlikely that it ever will - we tried to get, eventually got in and may well try to get in again for want of a better alternative and I think (once again De Gaulle was probably right) Europe would be well off avoiding it because I think the cycle would just repeat.

But I also think it will require a political movement and pro-Europeans don't seem to be organising from what I can see. I can't understand why they haven't taken over the Lib Dems for example.

Also my most rogue opinion/supposition is that if we are to try and re-enter it will happen under a government from the right. I suspect the polarities will flip again and, as in the 60s and 70s, Europe will be seen as a way to introduce more competition and discipline into the British economy. I also think the way that the rest of Europe is going that the right may end up quite attracted to an increasingly "civilisational" Europe defending "European" culture (again as in the 60s and 70s).

From today's standpoint, the UK won't seek re-entry because there is no compelling reason to do so; things will have to get quite a bit worse before that would happen.  The Trump shock could have been a catalyst; but his penchant for the Royals and his entourage's contempt for the EU and its non-Hungarian members pushed the needle the other way.

I'm not sure that would have been enough of a catalyst. A huge factor in Brexit being settled - even as public opnion moves against it - is that people hated the arguments and division around it and the Brexit years under May and Johnson. I think that experience more than the vote itself was the national trauma and I think it would take a lot for people to think it would be worth going through that again.

[Tamas]

Yes and my own criticism but not only not competent but also doesn't really have a politics/set of beliefs. He's just very squishy soft left. So incompetent and rudderless.

Agreed. This is a terrible combo in today's political climate.

[Tamas]

Britain will only join the EU on the same track as the United States will do the right thing, that is only after exhausting all the alternatives.  That's a long way off on the present timeline.

The restless shades of Harold MacMillan, Harold Wilson and Ted Heath have entered the chat.

I think that's probably right. However I think the EU would be wise to reject us because I think everyone else in Europe there is broad support across all parties and strands of public opinion for Europe as an idea and the European project. I think even with our most pro-European PMs the only one who was a true believer in European integration was Ted Heath. I don't think that consensus has ever existed in Britain and I think it's unlikely that it ever will - we tried to get, eventually got in and may well try to get in again for want of a better alternative and I think (once again De Gaulle was probably right) Europe would be well off avoiding it because I think the cycle would just repeat.

But I also think it will require a political movement and pro-Europeans don't seem to be organising from what I can see. I can't understand why they haven't taken over the Lib Dems for example.

Also my most rogue opinion/supposition is that if we are to try and re-enter it will happen under a government from the right. I suspect the polarities will flip again and, as in the 60s and 70s, Europe will be seen as a way to introduce more competition and discipline into the British economy. I also think the way that the rest of Europe is going that the right may end up quite attracted to an increasingly "civilisational" Europe defending "European" culture (again as in the 60s and 70s).

From today's standpoint, the UK won't seek re-entry because there is no compelling reason to do so; things will have to get quite a bit worse before that would happen.  The Trump shock could have been a catalyst; but his penchant for the Royals and his entourage's contempt for the EU and its non-Hungarian members pushed the needle the other way.

I'm not sure that would have been enough of a catalyst. A huge factor in Brexit being settled - even as public opnion moves against it - is that people hated the arguments and division around it and the Brexit years under May and Johnson. I think that experience more than the vote itself was the national trauma and I think it would take a lot for people to think it would be worth going through that again.

Also agree, at this stage, maybe the best outcome for the UK is to have a quasi-membership, so as close relationship as possible but without voting rights, so the United States of Europe can eventually form which will make us stronger as well.

[Tonitrus]

I don't know a damn thing about Wes Streeter, but my outside/Yank quick-take of immediate downsides is that his face seems very punchable.

[Sheilbh]

I think problem there is European opposition to cherry-picking and as I say the slightly "Middle Kingdom" view of the world from the Berlaymont. The world is split into the Union, candidates and applicants to enter the Union and Third Countries.

I suspect that they may end up with a slightly more flexible approach in the future - possibly prompted by challenges with Ukrainian membership or an increasingly hard-edged world forcing a recognition that some Third Countries (like Russia and China) are hostile, while others (like the UK or Canada) are basically pretty well-aligned, friend-shoring etc. which, I agree, may present the best route for the UK too.

[Sheilbh]

I don't know a damn thing about Wes Streeter, but my outside/Yank quick-take of immediate downsides is that his face seems very punchable.

Although I think that's true of literally Farage, Ed Davey, Zack Polanski and Keir Starmer -so literally every party leader except for Badenoch

[Tonitrus]

I don't know a damn thing about Wes Streeter, but my outside/Yank quick-take of immediate downsides is that his face seems very punchable.

Although I think that's true of literally Farage, Ed Davey, Zack Polanski and Keir Starmer -so literally every party leader except for Badenoch

Definitely agree on Farage...I'd think in the UK just his surname would be punchable as well. (maybe "Nigel" cancels it out)

[garbon]

I don't know a damn thing about Wes Streeter, but my outside/Yank quick-take of immediate downsides is that his face seems very punchable.

Although I think that's true of literally Farage, Ed Davey, Zack Polanski and Keir Starmer -so literally every party leader except for Badenoch

 

[Tamas]

Nobody has as punchable face as Farage, not even Steering. I hate the guy with a passion.