Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

I hope this AI thing isn't just the first instance of what the Tories and Johnson especially were doing: doing a big announcement to feed the press for a month and then not doing a single thing to ever implement it.

[Sheilbh]

I hope this AI thing isn't just the first instance of what the Tories and Johnson especially were doing: doing a big announcement to feed the press for a month and then not doing a single thing to ever implement it.

I mean that's just government

And I mean that only semi-cynically. The big announcements in and of themselves are important because they are organising government to some extent. There will have been lots of work in advance between departments in order for the PM to have something to announce, more will be in the detailed briefing note provided to the press. It will have given all the government their lines for media appearances today. Having something to announce to the press or, more rarely, parliament gives something for the civil service to be working towards on issues. I don't quite see how it ties into the governments six milestones, five missions, three foundations, two guiding principles etc which I think is the bigger issue.

So far I don't see much evidence that this government has any intention to push the type of radical reform needed to back up its intent. I think there's also worrying signs that in a lot of areas there's a bit of institutional capture by the civil service, I think Reeves particularly feels like the Treasury's Chancellor rather than being able to say it's Reeves' Treasury (as it was Brown's Treasury or Osborne's Treasury). I'm not sure they've actually got very clear ideas on basically anything. The positive case is that Starmer has shown he changes when things aren't working and is pretty ruthless in doing that - my concern is I think that might come too late in government.

It won't distract the press because they'll just ask about whatever's the latest frothy political story - for example today I think Starmer was asked four times in four different ways if he still backed Reeves. But that's a separate issue that the press is always focused on the Westminster/political angle - I've mentioned it before but Robert Peston, doing his best Bob Woodward impression, trying to nail Johnson on whether a scotch egg was a "substantial meal" was a particular low point

[Tamas]

I agree that based on what they have been doing and what you have been writing, it seems the only clear government agenda is not to upset the civil service.

[crazy canuck]

On the bright side, by the time government gets around to implementing AI, it might actually be intelligent 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah and I probably overstate that thought I think it's a risk of having lots of senior people who know the institutions. There's a possibility (though I can't think of many examples) that they'll know which levers to pull to do things, I think the more likely outcome is that they're institutionalised and easier to capture.

But it's not just the. Wes Streeting talks a good game on the NHS and some ideas for reform. He's also been pitching as the Blairite/Labour right candidate for next leader. But the NHS is a priority for the government, it's been six months and I've not really seen much. I worry that there's just not much there there all across the government.

I think the contrast with Ed Miliband is really striking. I have issues with him but he seems effective I think because he has a clear idea of what he wants to do, he was a minister under the last Labour government so has an idea of how to get stuff done and, crucially, is not in a spending department.

It's only sort of related but with a lot of stuff I think about news at the end of the year that the TfL stats were there were about 220 million rides on the Elizabeth Line in 2024. The original assumptions and projections on which the entire project was based (key, for example, for the Treasury's cost-benefit analysis) was that it would hit 150 million annual rides by 2030.

Edit: I should say that I don't find it reassuing that the two areas where the government do seem to have their act together are Miliband's department who are I think are setting hostages to fortune all over the place with unattainable targets that will come back to bite them, and Bridget Phillipson in education who is unpicking successful, cross-party education reforms of the last 25 years in a way mainly favoured by the unions and local authorities

[Tamas]

In any case a reason why to oppose bullding the first AI DCs was quickly found: it is to be next to (7 miles away) from a new reservoir that might get built in the future, bats willing:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jan/13/labour-ai-datacentre-growth-zone-water-shortages-abingdon-reservoir

[Sheilbh]

On the bright side, by the time government gets around to implementing AI, it might actually be intelligent 

One of the early examples of what AI could be used for is watching cameras to identify and prioritise pothole repairs.

I used to joke about Suank's government, but it feels that we've already reached the point where the ambition is an AI powered Cones Hotline

[crazy canuck]

One word of warning about even that though, Canada had its worst food born illness outbreak because the algorithm used to identify where inspectors should go was deeply flawed.

As with all these sorts of systems, if used to assist judgments made by humans, they can help, but too often they come to replace human judgment, with potentially disastrous outcomes.

[PJL]

By the time all these AI project get rolling, they'll probably cost twice as much if not more than originally intended and then get cancelled half-way by the next Tory government, just like HS2.

[HVC]

Won't someone please think about the cyber bats

[Sheilbh]

By the time all these AI project get rolling, they'll probably cost twice as much if not more than originally intended and then get cancelled half-way by the next Tory government, just like HS2.

Yes. Although also Sunak put money into an AI centre and supercomput in Edinburgh. The first thing Starmer did in government was cancel those projects. Plus ca change

In any case a reason why to oppose bullding the first AI DCs was quickly found: it is to be next to (7 miles away) from a new reservoir that might get built in the future, bats willing:

I didn't post this at the time but an interesting from a former transport civil servant:

Michael Dnes
@MichaelDnes1
Dec 23, 2024
Since the HS2 bat tunnel is back in the news (turns out it may actually kill the bats), time for one more story.

Which came first – HS2 or the bats? 🚄🦇🧵
HS2 affects a particularly sensitive bat – Bechstein's bat. The infamous £100m bat tunnel was built to save them from being hit by passing trains.

In 2005, we only knew of six colonies in the UK. None of which were near HS2.
But in 2007, the bat conservation trust went out to find more of them.

And they brought something new - the Autobat

The Autobat is a special acoustic lure. You programme it to make a sound that will attract bats of the opposite sex.

Trap the bats; check what type of bat they are; and let them go.
The Autobat is good. So good that it caused an explosion in the number of Bechstein's bats in the country.

We've now found more than 70 colonies. There will be many more.

Great news!
https://cdn.bats.org.uk/uploads/pdf/Bechsteins_bat_survey_final_report.pdf
But not for HS2.

HS2 was announced in 2009. No one had seen a Bechstein's bat within 50 miles of the expected route.
The North Bucks Bat Group (on the likely route) agreed to be one of the bat survey areas in 2010.

And by 2011 they'd found 8 Bechstein's bats.

And now HS2 needed to build a £100m bat tunnel.
Overall, this study was great news for Bechstein's bat. From six colonies, we now think their spread looks more like this map.

We thought there were about 1,500 of them. It's more like 25,000

And we now rate them as 'Least Threatened' in the extinction hierarchy for the UK

But in planning terms, it was a bit of a disaster. Because now everywhere in one of these squares marked in red or blue had to worry about bat conservation

Those HS2 bats probably existed pre-2010. The bigger story is how that bat survey silently reshaped local planning.
You see - the problem with bats is that they fly.

Because they fly, they roost, forage and travel over a large area. Environmental control has to protect all that.

Other species affect a field. One finding of a Bechstein's bat affects a 100km2 'hectad'.
And bat control does not mess around. A lot of 'weird' planning stories revolve around bats

Here is one ecological consultancy's tips to deal with the challenge

Note the bit about how you need to assess bat impacts to get planning permission, and can only do this May to August

Not that this always helps.

There is at least one case where planning permission was refused not because bats lived at the building in question, but because they _might_ want to live there in the future.

You can't even look for bats without a bat licence

So that 2007-2011 study was arguably the quietest landgrab in planning history, suddenly putting bat rules over a large fraction of England. Maybe as much as 11000km2

Perhaps not the intention of the government body (The Joint Nature Conservation Committee) that funded it.
Though perhaps this situation isn't uncongenial to those it affects inside of the civil service. Let's flip over to Natural England, who run the nation's environmental controls.

Natural England isn't about to let up on the bat rules any time soon.
Environmental authorities can rate a species as having 'favourable conservation status' when they're thriving.

Like, say, when their recorded population rises by more than 1000%, you find 10x as many breeding colonies and double their national range.
But in their recent assessment, Natural England said you shouldn't pay attention to that.

Because all of that has come about as a result of recording more Bechstein's bats, rather than showing the colonies were themselves thriving.
https://t.co/iA5B9LhL32

So when we weren't looking for them, we thought these bats were rare and under threat

Now we've looked, we've found lots.

But because that's about data collection, it shouldn't change their status

Because nothing has changed about the bats.
It's the logic of an episode of Yes Minister.

Because the idea that the bureaucratic starting point was itself flawed clearly isn't on the agenda
But it's not really a joke. When you look at the whole story, it leaves a bad taste in the mouth

Because this isn't democratic. No minister signed it off

Instead, some minor quangocrats commissioned some data collection, and the rest was just a domino run
Someone should have needed to ask. Somewhere in that process, the word 'stop' should have been possible.

Or there should be some way for the law to say 'too much'.

It feels like a system on autopilot, and an autopilot going badly wrong.
This is why I'm weirdly cheered by the £100m bat tunnel of death. Because this debate isn't on autopilot any more.

Nature is important. But it's one priority amongst many. And to choose those priorities we have to see, and debate, and reach a consensus that represents all.