Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is worse because the Tories are incompetent bastards; we can subsume brexit within that omnishambles as it would never have happened under a Labour or coalition government.

[Syt]

In important matters - WTF is wrong with people in NW?

[Sheilbh]

It is worse because the Tories are incompetent bastards; we can subsume brexit within that omnishambles as it would never have happened under a Labour or coalition government.

Wouldn't trust a coalition either

The UK is, much as I hate to admit it, the one place that is starting to look a little wage-price spiral-y.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The next government is going to have a terrible inheritance. I hope it is not going to be 4 years and then back to the tories 

[Josquius]

The next government is going to have a terrible inheritance. I hope it is not going to be 4 years and then back to the tories 

This is why they need to push through voting reform as priority number 1. Lock the tories out.

[Sheilbh]

This is why they need to push through voting reform as priority number 1. Lock the tories out.

Like the rest of Europe's permanent centre-left majority or the voting system in Scotland designed to lock the nationalists out

Every peacetime coalition has included the Tories, none of them have involved Labour. And I've no doubt that by 2029 the Lib Dems would be happy to ally with the Tories having traded slashing benefits for the poor, for a NIMBYs charter

[Josquius]

This is why they need to push through voting reform as priority number 1. Lock the tories out.

Like the rest of Europe's permanent centre-left majority or the voting system in Scotland designed to lock the nationalists out

Every peacetime coalition has included the Tories, none of them have involved Labour. And I've no doubt that by 2029 the Lib Dems would be happy to ally with the Tories having traded slashing benefits for the poor, for a NIMBYs charter

It is pretty rare to see parties as far to the right as the tories getting into power in Europe. The current wave of silliness blowing through is an exception rather than the norm.

I don't see how the Scottish system would keep the nationalists out?

And give me the lib dems over the tories anyday. They do need a purging of the older members to clear out the nimbys.

[Sheilbh]

It is pretty rare to see parties as far to the right as the tories getting into power in Europe. The current wave of silliness blowing through is an exception rather than the norm.

I mean to be clear the current wave of silliness includes a government led by a party that traces its history to members of the Salo Republic government. There are plenty of governments all over Europe with leaders as right wing as Cameron, May, Johnson - I'm less sure about Sunak or Truss - and often considerably more right wing on things like whether Muslims have rights or gay marriage.

I'm also not sure it's just going to blow through:


My main theory on this is that it's a result of the constraints of the current Euro system, meaning large swathes of economic and spending policy is effectively removed from democratic politics.

I don't see how the Scottish system would keep the nationalists out?

Theory was the SNP could quite possibly win in a FPTP system (as we see in Westminster where they have the most efficient vote in the country). But with the multi-member, part PR system (a bit like Germany's) there was no way they'd ever get more MSPs than Labour and the Lib Dems put together - or, at a push, all the unionist parties. Scottish Labour were not particularly subtle in this idea in the late 90s in the run up to devolution.

Needless to say voters had other ideas

And give me the lib dems over the tories anyday. They do need a purging of the older members to clear out the nimbys.

Ish. Every single thing that Cameron's government did happened because of Lib Dem and would not have happened with them. The bedroom tax, benefit cap, child cap for benefits, enormous cuts to local authority budgets, hostile environment, whatever it was Lansley did to the NHS - it's all on them too. I can't really think of a single positive from the Lib Dems being in that government (maybe environment/net zero - although they were the big internal opposition to nuclear power).

I'd rather Lib Dems over Tories too, but I don't think that's the choice. My suspicion is that more often than not you'd probably just end up with both, ultimately because I suspect property owners in university towns and property owners in market towns would eventually get over their mutual disdain to shaft everyone else

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The next government is going to have a terrible inheritance. I hope it is not going to be 4 years and then back to the tories 

This is why they need to push through voting reform as priority number 1. Lock the tories out.

You're letting your inner Orban out.

Might as well go all the way then and get rid of the vote alltogether

[Josquius]

I mean to be clear the current wave of silliness includes a government led by a party that traces its history to members of the Salo Republic government. There are plenty of governments all over Europe with leaders as right wing as Cameron, May, Johnson - I'm less sure about Sunak or Truss - and often considerably more right wing on things like whether Muslims have rights or gay marriage.

I'm also not sure it's just going to blow through:


My main theory on this is that it's a result of the constraints of the current Euro system, meaning large swathes of economic and spending policy is effectively removed from democratic politics.

I know you disagree with the data on millenials being different. But I'm a big believer in it.

What we are seeing this past decade fairly globally is the last hurrah of nationalism. A temporary high point as it goes through its death throes.
This combines with a shitty economic situation and fundamental need of societal reform to lead people to turn their back on established parties and look for something different, even when that something different is obviously just amping up the problems to 11.

Ive heard it put forward that a big problem with many far right parties is that once they get in power, providing they can't destroy democracy whilst they're there, they prove what they're all about and how they're even more incapable than the rest.

Ish. Every single thing that Cameron's government did happened because of Lib Dem and would not have happened with them. The bedroom tax, benefit cap, child cap for benefits, enormous cuts to local authority budgets, hostile environment, whatever it was Lansley did to the NHS - it's all on them too. I can't really think of a single positive from the Lib Dems being in that government (maybe environment/net zero - although they were the big internal opposition to nuclear power).

And you think if the tories had a majority they wouldn't have done all these things?
It is notable that after the coalition things got even shittier.

I'd rather Lib Dems over Tories too, but I don't think that's the choice. My suspicion is that more often than not you'd probably just end up with both, ultimately because I suspect property owners in university towns and property owners in market towns would eventually get over their mutual disdain to shaft everyone else

It's curious. You hear a lot of people going on about how PR would kill labour but the lib dems are the party which was literally formed out of a merger of two different groups just a generation ago.
I really do think far more so than labour that the lib dems stand as a fairly unnatural coalition and given their established comfort with being a 3rd party they'd be first to really split.

When imagining a near future democratic UK I think it's quite worthless to imagine the existing parties within it, providing the democracy can withstand initial reactionary attempts to undo it.
In a democratic UK you will have seperate parties for the far left and the regular left and the centrists, as well as on the other side different parties for the liberals and the fascists and the little englanders.

The next government is going to have a terrible inheritance. I hope it is not going to be 4 years and then back to the tories 

This is why they need to push through voting reform as priority number 1. Lock the tories out.

You're letting your inner Orban out.

Might as well go all the way then and get rid of the vote alltogether

The country needs to be more democratic = omg orban might as well get rid of voting?
How on earth do you figure?

[HVC]

How do you lock a party out and be more democratic simultaneously?

[Josquius]

How do you lock a party out and be more democratic simultaneously?

When that party is profiting from a democratic deficit.

[Admiral Yi]

When that party is profiting from a democratic deficit.

How the hell are the Tories benefiting from a democratic deficit? 

[HVC]

Is this another shoot Tommy in the face thing? Does lock out mean something different in the UK?

[Sheilbh]

I know you disagree with the data on millenials being different. But I'm a big believer in it.

The millenials being different thing is only showing up in the Anglosphere polling though. In France, say, Macron's strongest vote is the over 65s, Le Penn did best in the working age 25-65, including millenials. It's more a U shape rather than a straight-line - similar in Italy and I believe that shape of vote is quite common in continental Europe.

I also wonder if Canada, where the Conservatives are going in hard on housing might buck that Anglo trend of age being a big divide (and I wonder how much it is actually about age rather than the young being more likely to have gone to uni?).

In the context of the UK I just struggle to bet against one of the most historically successful, shape-shifting parties in the democratic world, as reassuring as it would be

What we are seeing this past decade fairly globally is the last hurrah of nationalism. A temporary high point as it goes through its death throes.
This combines with a shitty economic situation and fundamental need of societal reform to lead people to turn their back on established parties and look for something different, even when that something different is obviously just amping up the problems to 11.

I'm not convinced.

On a fundamental level I struggle with seeing a world defined by the rise of China and (to a lesser extent) India as one that is showing the death throes of nationalism - and obviously in both of those countries it is tied to economic success.

Whether it's the US response to that challenge, the growing assertiveness of the "rest" v Western powers, Ukraine's war of national liberation or the subordination of globalised markets to national security fears tied to industrial policy - I'm not sure where there is any evidence of the death throes of nationalism. I think we are seeing the death throes of a world order built by America and Europe when they represented something like 2/3s of the global economy and dominated much of the world, because they now represent less than 1/3 of the global economy and nations have liberated themselves. I think that does present a challenge and will stoke resentment and loss of status for the West - and I'm not sure what the world after that will look like (or if we'll survive it). But given the essential importance most post-colonial states place on national sovereignty v (inequally applied) universal principles, I'm not sure it'll be less nationalist.

Ive heard it put forward that a big problem with many far right parties is that once they get in power, providing they can't destroy democracy whilst they're there, they prove what they're all about and how they're even more incapable than the rest.

That's a pretty big caveat

I'm not sure of their record in office - assessed by their own standards - to be honest.

And you think if the tories had a majority they wouldn't have done all these things?

Sure but they literally couldn't in 2010-15 without a coalition and full Lib Dem support. Even if it was just a minority government  those things could have been watered down more.

It is notable that after the coalition things got even shittier.

As we've mentioned before (excluding Truss) I think Cameron and Osborne were the worst government in the last 13 years.

When imagining a near future democratic UK I think it's quite worthless to imagine the existing parties within it, providing the democracy can withstand initial reactionary attempts to undo it.
In a democratic UK you will have seperate parties for the far left and the regular left and the centrists, as well as on the other side different parties for the liberals and the fascists and the little englanders.

I think it all depends on the system you introduce. Parties fragment depending on electoral system - particularly any thresholds to representation. So ranked voting or STV as in Australia or Ireland haven't historically produced much fragmentation of the major parties (in Ireland at least until the crash) but do have a strong tradition of local independents/personalist parties; German politics is less fragmented than Dutch or Israeli politics because they have a higher threshold to get into the Bundestag.

My voting reform preference would be for something more Australian - ranked, compulsory voting. I'm not sure that it would cause massive party splits - and based on literally all of world history, the left would split first, more and into factions that absolutely detested each other (I mean I'm fairly sure both sides of the Labour's factional wars right now hate each other more than they hate the Tories)

The country needs to be more democratic = omg orban might as well get rid of voting?
How on earth do you figure?

I want to change the voting system to ensure one party can never again hold power = little bit Orbany

Also I wouldn't position it as less or more democratic. I think it's more of a question of what democracy is for in a system. Both PR and FPTP are democratic, they have different virtues and different flaws that I think appeal to different sides/purposes of democracy.