Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

I don't get what this charts shows. Can you explain it? 

Is "not in education" good (as in "already finished education, now working") or bad (as in "has no education")?

Germany is a complete opposite ends of each chart, so I wonder what that means.

[Jacob]

I don't get what this charts shows. Can you explain it? 

Is "not in education" good (as in "already finished education, now working") or bad (as in "has no education")?

Germany is a complete opposite ends of each chart, so I wonder what that means.

Here's my understanding:

Hollow bar vs full bar shows "native born parents" vs "immigrant parents".

First graph shows low level of education for different countries, second graph shows high level of education.

So Germany has the highest level of low-educated folks with people from immigrant parents, and sort of average for folks with native-born parents. Germany is sort of bottom of the list for people with high education levels, but people with native-born parents have higher levels of education at almost twice the rate of those with foreign-born parents.

You can interpret that in a number of ways, of course. It does seem to suggest that whatever is counted as "high level of education" is more rare in Germany in general, and that children of immigrants are having a harder time accessing those levels of education.

For the UK they have a much higher rate of "high level of education" and (unsurprisingly I expect) less "low level of education". In the UK, children of foreign born parents are getting high levels of education at a greater rate than those who are local born; and there are fewer of them with low levels of education compared to those with native born parents.

To what degree that is good, bad, alarming, interesting, or indicative of specific things probably depends on other contextual data and priorities.

[Jacob]

... and "not in education", I would think, means both "never got any education" and "finished their fancy education". So neither good or bad, but simply not measuring the education levels of people who are currently in school.

So if a country has a high rate of 25-34 year olds in education it would result in shorter bars in the second graph of "highly educated people" where they'll show up later.

[Sheilbh]

Here's my understanding:

Hollow bar vs full bar shows "native born parents" vs "immigrant parents".

First graph shows low level of education for different countries, second graph shows high level of education.

Yeah I think that's right and what I think is relevant is the gap between the two. High level of education basically means at least the first level of tertiary education ("People falling into ISCED groups 5-8 are those with tertiary education degrees. They have at least completed the first stage of tertiary education.", while low educated means "People falling into ISCED groups 0-2 are described as having no or low education. They have no more than a lower-secondary level of education."

So I think the gap is what's relevant because the UK for example has an economy and education structure that favours university/tertiary education - with an official target of at least 50% of students going to university; while Germany doesn't because there are other technical routes, which I assume are whatever ISCED levels 3-4 are.

To what degree that is good, bad, alarming, interesting, or indicative of specific things probably depends on other contextual data and priorities.

Yeah - I think it is positive (arguably it would be better to have those numbers more aligned). But in the UK particularly the success in education reforms over the last 20 years that have been particularly successful in London (for reasons no-one fully understands) which is a disproportionately immigrant city and some other big cities. It is now also starting to have knock on effects on other stats as people graduate and enter work.

On the other hand the success of London (and a few other big cities) for unknown reasons has particularly helped the most socio-economically disadvantaged children in those areas. As I say it's not clear which factors in the policy mix have caused those results which means, annoyingly, it's difficult to roll out across the country. In turn that reinforces the importance of class and place in the UK as a key divide.

[Zanza]

Ok, that helps me understand it. So being high in the left chart and being low in the right chart both mean poor overall education, so it makes sense now.

But then I am rather surprised by the result because so far I did not have the expectation that Germany has the worst educated 25-34 populace among the OECD, but maybe it is that way. 

Found this on the different levels on some EU website:

ISCED 0: Early childhood education ('less than primary' for educational attainment)
ISCED 1: Primary education
ISCED 2: Lower secondary education
ISCED 3: Upper secondary education
ISCED 4: Post-secondary non-tertiary education
ISCED 5: Short-cycle tertiary education
ISCED 6: Bachelor's or equivalent level
ISCED 7: Master's or equivalent level
ISCED 8: Doctoral or equivalent level

[Jacob]

Quick google says Germany has a rate of 32% of young adults (25-34) held a post-secondary degree in 2018, vs an OECD average of 44%. The google hit says this is "mostly as a result of its strong vocational education system".

I'd be interested to know if there are people working in, say, Germany and the UK in technical/vocational field with roughly the same level of training/education but who are considered highly educated in the UK (because they have a degree) while not highly educated in Germany (because their vocational training is not considered as such).

What sort of fields do you get vocational training in in Germany? I'm especially curious about the more technical/ complex ones.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think so, generally. I think it's more that because of the nature of our economy we don't have those jobs (and there's a chicken and egg point about this).

The sectors in the UK where you do have strong vocational training, with apprenticeships, tend to be high-end manufacturing (particularly in defence). But that's a smaller part of our economy than it is in Germany. I think it's roughly like for like stats but my understanding is that about 70% of German workers are in the services sector with about 25% in industry, compared with about 85% in the UK with about 10% in industry.

However even within the context of services we are definitely moving to an "everybody needs a degree" approach. Teachers and nurses now require degrees where it used to be possible to qualify vocationally, there are moves to require all police officers to get a degree too. I worry that we are creating a market that has careers for people who go to university, and jobs for the rest - while in Germnany you can have a career through vocational training.

Although it's where I have an issue with the (often bipartisan) education policy of "we should simply be Germany", by which they mean we need more and stronger vocational training. I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea, but I think education systems are probably a product of the economic and cultural conditions in a country. So I think it's quite complicated when it's normally positioned as we just need to fund more technical education and have "parity of esteem" when part of the problem is, economically, there isn't parity of pay/opportunities in the way there is in Germany because the sectors are there.

[Josquius]

Never should have gotten rid of the poly's.

And we may lack so many top manufacturing jobs as Germany but eg the trades are something where we could do with a lot more respect and more training.

I continue to be shocked nobody has written about the situation there and the approaching time bomb.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. They just became universities - including some very good ones by now. And it's worth saying that universities (including former polys) are still by some distance the most effective regeneration strategy in the UK. It's one of the reasons I quite like the government's new approach to those "enterprise zones" of making local universities the key local institution, it seems very sensible to me and a good basis for industrial policy if Labour win.

Of course in mourning the decline of polys, there's been over a hundred years of British politician making exactly this point and comparing with Germany, particularly around the quality (or lack of it) of technical education in this country. And about as many attempts over those years to try and fix it (of which polys were one), which have generally failed in one way or another. As I say my suspicion that it doesn't work if you don't have the economic system to support it - and the UK doesn't and hasn't for a very long time. My opinion is that's very difficult to fix so, as ever, we'd be better of playing to our strengths. Not sure the current system is really doing that.

[Sheilbh]

So the final vote on the Privileges Committee report on Johnson, 354 endorsed it (including 118 Tories and six cabinet ministers), 7 voted against it (including one Labour whip who was just forcing a vote). So parliament voted that Johnson repeatedly and knowingly misled them, that he acted in contempt of parliament by breaching confidentiality and trying to intimidate the Committee - which is all fairly unprecedented.

The government encouraged Tories to just abstain or not turn up in the hope of avoiding a vote and just let the the report get voted by acclamation. Which is a cowardly approach and, given that a vote was forced, probably doomed to failure. I imagine Labour and the Lib Dems will be getting leaflets ready for the Tory MPs who just failed to turn up anyway.

But this is the pattern since Johnson was forced out. Lots of bluster, he gets his supporters out on the media - then he gives in, there's lots of briefing to the media that "dozens of Tory MPs" are going to back him anyway and a bespoke assortment of Tory oddballs are the only people who turn up. It's just constantly Grand Old Duke of York.

Edit: Also the Met is apparently looking into new parties reported to them as a result of the Committee report and the video of the Tory London mayoral campaign's Christmas party (they should be prosecuted solely for calling it a "jingle and mingle" ).

[Zanza]

What sort of fields do you get vocational training in in Germany? I'm especially curious about the more technical/ complex ones.

Virtually every job category has both vocational and academic jobs here. I mean you can only become a doctor or psychologist when you studied at a university, but most other healthcare jobs, e.g. assistance in a practices, nurses, midwives, physiotherapists, etc. exist as vocational education as well, although there is a trend to move them towards more academic education too. Same pattern in all other fields. Can't think of any field that strictly is academic only.

[Sheilbh]

Virtually every job category has both vocational and academic jobs here. I mean you can only become a doctor or psychologist when you studied at a university, but most other healthcare jobs, e.g. assistance in a practices, nurses, midwives, physiotherapists, etc. exist as vocational education as well, although there is a trend to move them towards more academic education too. Same pattern in all other fields. Can't think of any field that strictly is academic only.

Here, now, nurses need to go to university.

I got into an argument with some friends about it because I think it seems excessive - their main point was basically that it's about status in society and nursing should be seen as a profession. I think that's nonsense, even moreso after I spent a week in hospital after a holiday injury a couple of years ago. I got chatting to some of the student nurses and literally none of their course is academic - it's all gained through vocational training in hospitals, and yet...

[Zanza]

I think it's roughly like for like stats but my understanding is that about 70% of German workers are in the services sector with about 25% in industry, compared with about 85% in the UK with about 10% in industry.

How is that counted though? I work in IT for a large industrial company. My job isn't different to what I would do at an insurance company, a retailer, a public institution or a tech company.  Am I considered an industrial or service worker?

Although it's where I have an issue with the (often bipartisan) education policy of "we should simply be Germany", by which they mean we need more and stronger vocational training.

Our system also has a lot of problems, so it is hardly a blueprint for anybody else.

[Sheilbh]

How is that counted though? I work in IT for a large industrial company. My job isn't different to what I would do at an insurance company, a retailer, a public institution or a tech company.  Am I considered an industrial or service worker?

Sorry I'm not sure - as I say I think it's roughly the same criteria for data, from the ILO originally, but I'm not totally sure. And I'm not sure how they work it out.

My instinct would be that IT is services (same with finance, legal, admin, marketing, advertising).

Our system also has a lot of problems, so it is hardly a blueprint for anybody else.

I don't doubt it because I imagine every system has problems and I don't think there is a "right" answer. But there have been reports on the quality (or lack of it) of British technical education and the need to follow the German model since the 1880s with lots of initiatives and policies in between. Needless to say, we've not quite managed

[Tamas]

UK inflation unchanged from last month at 8.7%, although core inflation actually rose last month (7.1% vs 6.8% previously).

Stagflation confirmed? Seems like inflation is on its way down everywhere else. I wonder what condition makes the UK stand out from other countries.  I know there's Brexit but we have established that Brexit hasn't affected anything at all.