Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

The logic as I understand it is that capacity would not be built without the massive subsidies.  So if the subsides are going to be spent, you think it's only fair that it be spent all around the world?

No - again I think it's a good policy.

But I think it's protectionist to determine that the subsides and capacity will be domestic, rather than allowing the market to determine (even with stringent criteria).

[Admiral Yi]

No - again I think it's a good policy.

But I think it's protectionist to determine that the subsides and capacity will be domestic, rather than allowing the market to determine (even with stringent criteria).

So protectionist in effect but not necessarily in purpose?  I could live with that.

[Sheilbh]

So protectionist in effect but not necessarily in purpose?  I could live with that.

Protectionist in effect - and I'd argue in purpose because I dont' think DC is a particularly naive place. Same with the IRA

[Sheilbh]

Great piece from the Times about Kate Forbes:

Is Scotland ready for a Wee Free leader?
Kate Forbes's religion has attracted suspicion yet Presbyterianism is indelibly tattooed on the Scottish psyche
Kenny Farquharson
Tuesday February 21 2023, 5.00pm, The Times

Some years ago I was in Stornoway writing about the first ferry sailings to break the Sabbath. In a fishermen's club in the docks I saw a great local band called Our Small Capital and the next morning I had a coffee with its frontman, Willie Campbell.

I noticed he had a tattoo running the length of his forearm and I asked what it was. "It's my grandmother's favourite verse of the Bible, in Gaelic," he said.

Presbyterianism is inked into the skin of its adherents. It is also indelibly tattooed on the Scottish psyche. Being raised a Catholic, as I was, offers no immunity. Likewise atheists. Presbyterianism is marbled through what it means to be Scottish.

Canniness. Scepticism. Dourness. A fondness for disputation the way other cultures are fond of dancing. All have their roots in a Presbyterian worldview. Nothing else can better explain the defining Scottish traits, except perhaps drink and the weather.

This, I think, is why the Christianity of Kate Forbes has been more of a talking point in the SNP leadership contest than the Muslim beliefs of Humza Yousaf, her main rival. For many of us this debate is not theological, it is existential. It is about who we are as Scots and what makes us tick.

Politics has always been bound up with religion. One of my heroes is Geoff Shaw, a Kirk minister based in the Gorbals who was tipped in the late 1970s to be Labour leader of a devolved Scottish Assembly. It was not to be. He died aged 51 in 1978 and hopes of home rule were dashed the following year in a rigged referendum.

Shaw's radical Christianity sat easily with his political career. It gave moral purpose to his work alongside the poor in the Gorbals slums. It won him plaudits across the political divide. When he died there was a feeling Scotland had lost a guiding light.

So why is the Christianity of Kate Forbes not attracting the same warmth and admiration? Why is it attracting suspicion? The reason, I think, is down to the difference between the old and new testaments of the Bible.

New testament politicians preach love and forgiveness. Old testament politicians preach sin and punishment. As a person, Kate Forbes may well have a new testament approach to people. My own experience of her would support that. But the faith to which she owes allegiance seems more interested in drawing dividing lines than reaching over them.

There is a parallel here with nationalism. Some nationalism is new testament. It is welcoming and inclusive. It is generous. Some nationalism is old testament. It emphasises difference. It is all about us and them.

Wee Frees hate being called Wee Frees. They see the term as insulting and condescending. And so it is. The popular memes of Free Presbyterianism — the chained-up swings, the Holy Willie piousness — are routinely mocked in a way that would be unthinkable for other faiths. Look a little closer and the mockery has a function. It is defiance of authoritarianism. It cocks a snook at those who would have us live our lives in accordance with their nostrums.

This is why Forbes has encountered turbulence. This is not about religion per se. This is about a very specific experience of religion in a nation with a long memory. Many an older Scot has a tale to tell about how authoritarian religion scarred their lives. Some younger ones too.

Scotland likes to think of itself as liberal, secular, diverse and cosmopolitan. This is more public relations than truth. There is a deeper Scotland — l'Ecosse profonde — that persists. Mostly it stays out of plain sight, but we know it when we see it.

Yousaf is a Muslim. To say the least, the world of Islam has its own image problems, its own examples of authoritarianism, its own gruesome extremes. But Yousaf carries his religion lightly. Forbes does not. Language is important here. Yousaf talks about religion like a politician. Forbes sounds like somebody standing on your doorstep with an armful of religious tracts and Good News about accepting the risen Christ as your Saviour.

Does all this mean Forbes has no hope of becoming first minister? Not necessarily. But I think she and her aides may have misidentified the resistance she is facing. Secular voters are fine with religion as culture. We're a' Jock Tamson's bairns. They are even fine with religion as a moral purpose in politics. It is the fire and brimstone they have a problem with. The weeping and gnashing of teeth. The smiting. Leviticus is a bit of a downer.

Forbes needs to make some things clear. Although a product of fundamentalist Presbyterianism, she is not its prisoner. Although a believer, she is not a proselytiser. Although she is living a religious life, the rest of us can live whatever lives we goddam like, and she will defend our right to do so. Is she capable of giving those answers?

The best song by Our Small Capital is called A Way Around The Gospel. You can find an acoustic version on YouTube. The song describes the conflict between a guy's passion and a girl's religious beliefs. He asks her to come back to him. They can work something out, he says. "We can find a way around the Gospel / There's always ways and means around the Gospel."

But is there?

Edit: Even when I was a kid there weren't Sunday ferries to some islands. It was a big deal when they started sabbath sailings and, as he says, you'd hear stories of the chained up swings. The whole Presbyterian experience is just a very different vibe than the CofE/Christianity has in England.

[Legbiter]

If only there'd been a sign:

David Smith: Berlin embassy spy jailed for leaking secrets to Russia
Security guard who sympathised with Putin carried out espionage for three years
David Brown, Marc Horne
Friday February 17 2023, 12.40pm, The Times

A British embassy security officer has been jailed for more than 13 years after admitting spying for Russia because he supported President Putin's war in Ukraine.

I think failing to spot blindingly obvious traitors is a tradition we should probably try to ditch

 

[garbon]

Great piece from the Times about Kate Forbes:

Is Scotland ready for a Wee Free leader?
Kate Forbes's religion has attracted suspicion yet Presbyterianism is indelibly tattooed on the Scottish psyche
Kenny Farquharson
Tuesday February 21 2023, 5.00pm, The Times

Some years ago I was in Stornoway writing about the first ferry sailings to break the Sabbath. In a fishermen's club in the docks I saw a great local band called Our Small Capital and the next morning I had a coffee with its frontman, Willie Campbell.

I noticed he had a tattoo running the length of his forearm and I asked what it was. "It's my grandmother's favourite verse of the Bible, in Gaelic," he said.

Presbyterianism is inked into the skin of its adherents. It is also indelibly tattooed on the Scottish psyche. Being raised a Catholic, as I was, offers no immunity. Likewise atheists. Presbyterianism is marbled through what it means to be Scottish.

Canniness. Scepticism. Dourness. A fondness for disputation the way other cultures are fond of dancing. All have their roots in a Presbyterian worldview. Nothing else can better explain the defining Scottish traits, except perhaps drink and the weather.

This, I think, is why the Christianity of Kate Forbes has been more of a talking point in the SNP leadership contest than the Muslim beliefs of Humza Yousaf, her main rival. For many of us this debate is not theological, it is existential. It is about who we are as Scots and what makes us tick.

Politics has always been bound up with religion. One of my heroes is Geoff Shaw, a Kirk minister based in the Gorbals who was tipped in the late 1970s to be Labour leader of a devolved Scottish Assembly. It was not to be. He died aged 51 in 1978 and hopes of home rule were dashed the following year in a rigged referendum.

Shaw's radical Christianity sat easily with his political career. It gave moral purpose to his work alongside the poor in the Gorbals slums. It won him plaudits across the political divide. When he died there was a feeling Scotland had lost a guiding light.

So why is the Christianity of Kate Forbes not attracting the same warmth and admiration? Why is it attracting suspicion? The reason, I think, is down to the difference between the old and new testaments of the Bible.

New testament politicians preach love and forgiveness. Old testament politicians preach sin and punishment. As a person, Kate Forbes may well have a new testament approach to people. My own experience of her would support that. But the faith to which she owes allegiance seems more interested in drawing dividing lines than reaching over them.

There is a parallel here with nationalism. Some nationalism is new testament. It is welcoming and inclusive. It is generous. Some nationalism is old testament. It emphasises difference. It is all about us and them.

Wee Frees hate being called Wee Frees. They see the term as insulting and condescending. And so it is. The popular memes of Free Presbyterianism — the chained-up swings, the Holy Willie piousness — are routinely mocked in a way that would be unthinkable for other faiths. Look a little closer and the mockery has a function. It is defiance of authoritarianism. It cocks a snook at those who would have us live our lives in accordance with their nostrums.

This is why Forbes has encountered turbulence. This is not about religion per se. This is about a very specific experience of religion in a nation with a long memory. Many an older Scot has a tale to tell about how authoritarian religion scarred their lives. Some younger ones too.

Scotland likes to think of itself as liberal, secular, diverse and cosmopolitan. This is more public relations than truth. There is a deeper Scotland — l'Ecosse profonde — that persists. Mostly it stays out of plain sight, but we know it when we see it.

Yousaf is a Muslim. To say the least, the world of Islam has its own image problems, its own examples of authoritarianism, its own gruesome extremes. But Yousaf carries his religion lightly. Forbes does not. Language is important here. Yousaf talks about religion like a politician. Forbes sounds like somebody standing on your doorstep with an armful of religious tracts and Good News about accepting the risen Christ as your Saviour.

Does all this mean Forbes has no hope of becoming first minister? Not necessarily. But I think she and her aides may have misidentified the resistance she is facing. Secular voters are fine with religion as culture. We're a' Jock Tamson's bairns. They are even fine with religion as a moral purpose in politics. It is the fire and brimstone they have a problem with. The weeping and gnashing of teeth. The smiting. Leviticus is a bit of a downer.

Forbes needs to make some things clear. Although a product of fundamentalist Presbyterianism, she is not its prisoner. Although a believer, she is not a proselytiser. Although she is living a religious life, the rest of us can live whatever lives we goddam like, and she will defend our right to do so. Is she capable of giving those answers?

The best song by Our Small Capital is called A Way Around The Gospel. You can find an acoustic version on YouTube. The song describes the conflict between a guy's passion and a girl's religious beliefs. He asks her to come back to him. They can work something out, he says. "We can find a way around the Gospel / There's always ways and means around the Gospel."

But is there?

Edit: Even when I was a kid there weren't Sunday ferries to some islands. It was a big deal when they started sabbath sailings and, as he says, you'd hear stories of the chained up swings. The whole Presbyterian experience is just a very different vibe than the CofE/Christianity has in England.

Feels a bit like churchish nonsense. Especially lines in the modern era of I think your marriage is sinful, I wouldn't have voted for it but will now protect your freedom.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I suspect the Labour view that she's going to crash and burn is true and happening. I think the Farron example is the same point.

I don't have an issue with someone saying - as she has - that they don't support gay marriage personally, but they accept the democratic will of parliament and they would not seek to overturn it. Which is also her point on abortion - similarly I think the media framing of her "no sex before marriage" comment is really unfair as she basically she personally believes that it's better for people to get married before they have kids.

It doesn't seem problematic to me for a politician to have views or beliefs on moral issues or sin that are at odds with the majority view or current law, provided they don't try to impose it on the rest of us. I don't think we need both to change the law and require politicians with religious beliefs to explain their conversion experience to support abortion or gay marriage. I care about what they're going to do with power not their souls.

From a unionist perspective I think it's probably good - Forbes has a reputation as a very competent minister and I think the Tories were right in their fears that actuallly she'd be very effective in building the case for independence. But her personal beliefs seem to have blown up her campaign before it started. That's likely to result in Yousaf winning - he's not personally popular, he's not got a reputation as a great minister and he's been responsible for really ineptly handled legislation by the Scottish government. I'm not sure he is the person who can take the case for independence forward.

Separately though I think it would be a really striking moment for these isles if there was a Muslim First Minister of Scotland of East African Indian heritage who took his oath of office in English and Urdu (and the Labour leader who might replace him is also Muslim), a Muslim Pakistani heritage mayor of London (the biggest direct electoral mandate in the country), a Hindu East African Indian heritage PM - all of whom practice their faith and are open about their faith. And the Taoiseach's dad was Indian as well - certainly be striking at the time of the next British-Irish Council meeting.

It is particularly striking to have that representation of other faiths in high office at the same time as conservative Christian views - but ones that were mainstream just 10-15 years ago - may be disqualifying. It's really interesting.

[Sheilbh]

Separately on housing - I thought this was really interesting from the Centre for Cities - particularly the charts and Twitter thread. In particular it makes it clear that the issue is planning and not just right to buy (also interesting on the whole Thatcher debate that there was a wider European move against state building starting in the 80s - why I think we need to think of it more as a neo-liberal shift in the West rather than just a Thatcher/Reagan thing):

The housebuilding crisis: The UK's 4 million missing homes
Compared to other European countries, Britain has a backlog of millions of homes that are missing from the housing market. Building these homes is key to solving the nation's housing crisis.
Report published on 22 February 2023 by Samuel Watling and Anthony Breach

Britain has a severe housing crisis, especially in the most prosperous places in the Greater South East. Across England, the average house costs more than ten times the average salary, vacancy rates are below 1 per cent, and space per person for private renters has dropped substantially in recent decades.

This report explores the root cause of the UK's housing problem, how policy in this area has developed over the last 75 years, and what action policymakers need to take to deliver enough homes in the UK.

The report finds that:
There is a backlog of millions of missing homes in the UK

Compared to the average European country, Britain today has a backlog of 4.3 million homes that are missing from the national housing market as they were never built.

This housing deficit would take at least half a century to fill even if the Government's current target to build 300,000 homes a year is reached. Tackling the problem sooner would require 442,000 homes per year over the next 25 years or 654,000 per year over the next decade in England alone.

Britain's housing supply issues began in 1947, not 1980

Using newly available data on housing that was collected after the Second World War by the United Nations, it is now possible to explore whether Britain's housing supply issues began after 1980 with Right to Buy and a subsequent decline of council housebuilding, or whether it began shortly after the Town and Country Planning Act 1947 was introduced.

This report uses this new data and other sources to compare British housebuilding and outcomes to that in Ireland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, (West) Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland from 1955 to 2015. It finds that Britain's housing shortage began at the beginning of the post-war period, not at its conclusion.

Housebuilding rates in England and Wales have dropped by more than a third after the introduction of the Town and Country Planning Act 1947, from 2 per cent growth per year between 1856 and 1939 to 1.2 per cent between 1947 and 2019.

This has been a key factor behind the UK's long-standing housing crisis, which has led to inflated property prices and soaring rents in recent decades.

Planning reform is the key to ending the housing shortage

Solving a problem as big as the British housing crisis requires a big reform. Addressing the problems with the discretionary planning system, fundamentally untouched since 1947, is that big reform.

Specifically, this entails:
    Replacing the discretionary planning system with a new rules-based, flexible zoning system. Increasing the certainty of the planning process and the supply of land for development is essential for any major increase in housebuilding, whether by the private or public sectors. The principle of shifting away from uncertain, case-by-case decision-making to a system where development is lawful so long as it follows the rules should guide all new planning reform proposals.
    Increasing private sector housebuilding. More council and social housing can be a part of the solution, but given the scale of the backlog, significantly increasing the amount of private housebuilding will be crucial.

    "This research shows that UK planning policy has held back the economy for nearly three quarters of a century, stifling growth and exacerbating a housing crisis that has blighted the country for decades.

    "Big problems require big solutions and if the Government is to clear its backlog of unbuilt homes, it must first deliver planning reform. Failure to do this will only continue to limit England's housebuilding potential and prevent millions from getting on the property ladder."

    – Andrew Carter, Chief Executive, Centre for Cities.

Via Ant Breach on this - so even during the early post-war (when the population was declining) we had one of the lowest building rates adjusted for population and weren't building enough houses:


Even adjusted for population there was a relative decline in housing in Britain from 5% above the European average in the early 50s to 2% below by 1980.

After 1980 housebuilding falls across Europe - but particularly public sector building. It also made the UK fall down in the table, despite already being low:


So the UK had a ratio of homes to population and it's basically flat-lining (Ireland is the other exception in Europe). The UK had declined from 1955-80 went from being 5% above European average to 2% below and we're declining even more now:


These two are also interesting. One that isn't a surprise (and the thing I keep banging on about) - the UK hasn't invested very much in housing. I'm not clear if this also includes investing in existing properties which, again, wouldn't be a surprise. The other thing that won't surprise anyone living here - especially if you've rented - is that with all of that we end up with very small homes I imagine because you're trying to maximise value out of very constrained supply:

[Josquius]

Interesting. I see a lot around about how the Netherlands has a housing crisis...despite also seeing a lot around about how they have the right approach to building housing.
Seems both are right. Things do suck but they are getting better.

Interesting Sweden scores so well. I've seen much of Stockholm having a massive housing crisis. Switzerland too- not an easy place to find somewhere to live. The landlords have all the power.

[Valmy]

If only there'd been a sign:

David Smith: Berlin embassy spy jailed for leaking secrets to Russia
Security guard who sympathised with Putin carried out espionage for three years
David Brown, Marc Horne
Friday February 17 2023, 12.40pm, The Times

A British embassy security officer has been jailed for more than 13 years after admitting spying for Russia because he supported President Putin's war in Ukraine.

I think failing to spot blindingly obvious traitors is a tradition we should probably try to ditch

 

Back in the day I found this Fry & Laurie sketch just baffling, I was like "what exactly are they even making fun of here?" It is starting to make more sense over time 

[Valmy]

I do have to say it is pretty bad when 40 year old jokes about the incompetence of your national security continue to age so well.

[Sheilbh]

MI6 recruitment 1930-40.

Recruiter: Ah, Byers! Your uncle went to school with my father.
Byers: Hello. I'm a Stalinist.
Recruiter: Well, everything seems fine here.



At least we now know that working class obvious traitors now have the opportunite to work in the British state. So progress of a sort.

[Sheilbh]

I know it's something I keep banging on about, but the shift in public opinion on migration in the last 10 years is incredible and really interesting - and I don't think politicians are behind the public on this. I hope it keeps going - and a reminder that this is after the UK had its highest ever net migration last year (at around 500k):

UK now among most accepting countries for foreign workers, survey finds
Exclusive: Study's authors note 'extraordinary shift' since 2009 on question of British jobs for British workers
Robert Booth Social affairs correspondent
Thu 23 Feb 2023 00.01 GMT
Last modified on Thu 23 Feb 2023 00.03 GMT

The UK has become one of the world's most accepting places for foreign workers, according to a survey in 24 nations revealing a sharp increase in British acceptance of economic migration.

People in the UK emerged as less likely to think that when jobs are scarce employers should give priority to people of their own country than those in Norway, Canada, France, Spain, the US, Australia and Japan. Only Germany and Sweden were more open on that question.

In what the study's authors described as "an extraordinary shift", only 29% of people in the UK in 2022 said priority over jobs should go to local people, compared with 65% when the same question was asked in 2009.

The findings come as employers call for more migration to help fill more than 1m vacancies, and after the prime minister appointed the anti-immigration firebrand Lee Anderson as deputy chair of the Conservative party. He has called people arriving in small boats on the south coast "criminals" and called for them to be "sent back the same day". Police have been deployed to hotels where asylum seekers are being housed amid violent protests by anti-immigration activists.

"It was unthinkable a decade ago that the UK would top any international league table for positive views of immigration," said Prof Bobby Duffy, the director of the Policy Institute at King's College London, who shared the findings from the latest round of the survey exclusively with the Guardian and the BBC. "But that's where we are now, with the UK the least likely, from a wide range of countries, to say we should place strict limits on immigration or prohibit it entirely."

The UK ranked fourth out of 24 nations for the belief that immigrants have a very or quite good impact on the development of the country – ahead of Norway, Spain, the US and Sweden.

One factor in the shift in opinions on the question of "British jobs for British workers" may be that in 2009 the UK was in a deep recession, with more than double today's unemployment, whereas today the economy suffers from a worker shortage, with 1.1m vacancies in the UK, 300,000 more than before the pandemic.

Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, last year urged employers to look to the British workforce in the first instance and "get local people", although the government has widened visa programmes for seasonal workers and care staff.

Duffy said the findings showed that "it's time to listen more carefully to public attitudes". He said: "Politicians often misread public opinion on immigration. In the 2000s, Labour government rhetoric and policy on this issue was more relaxed than public preferences, and arguably they paid the price – but the current government is falling into the reverse trap."

People in the UK are now the least likely of the 24 countries that participate in the World Values Survey study to think immigration increases unemployment, and second from top in thinking that immigrants fill important job vacancies.

They are very likely to say immigration boosts cultural diversity, and very unlikely to think immigration comes with crime and safety risks. However, more people in the UK think immigration leads to "social conflict" than in several other countries, including Canada, Japan and China.

The World Values Survey asks the same questions in countries that account for almost half the world's population. The surveys in each country are not carried out simultaneously, so the latest UK findings are compared with data from other countries gathered since 2017.

"We have seen a shift that is quite remarkable in the UK," said Madeleine Sumption, the director of the migration observatory at Oxford University, adding that the findings were in line with decreasing public concern about immigration since the 2016 EU referendum.

"There is speculation it is about the fact that the end of freedom of movement has created a feeling the UK now has more control," she said.

She added that there had also been positive media coverage about what migrant workers bring to the economy, especially given worker shortages in industries such as agriculture.

"I think it potentially creates space for a less polarised debate about immigration," she said. "To the extent there is a consensus that immigration can be positive for the country and the question was how to manage it well, you can imagine that would be more a technocratic debate."

A Home Office spokesperson said: "Our points-based immigration system recognises the valuable contribution that people from around the world can make to our economy, public services and wider society. It attracts the best and brightest talent from across the globe by putting skill and talent first – not where someone comes from."

I think the control point is probably part of it and agree on the positive coverarge (possibly, ironically, as a response to the Brexit vote) - although I'd also particularly call out the pandemic in positive coverage.

[garbon]

That title is a mess given it is about attitudes not the reality as shaped by policy.

[celedhring]

Isn't unemployment in the UK at near-historic lows? That's very likely the highest contributor. The whole "their took our jobs!" unpleasantness usually comes to the fore during hard times.