Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Thought this thread was really interesting on polling of UK parliamentarians' views v the public:
https://twitter.com/SteveAkehurst/status/1592875550447915008?s=20&t=gg3A7B_omQ9H1IlU3VRPiA

In general they're all actually relatively aligned. But on some specific issues - for example onshore wind - there are big differences. But this is largely based on a misperception of what MPs think (especially Tories) their constituents think and what voters actually think. I suspect this is probably because the vocal ones who clog up surgeries and harrangue MPs in the streets etc create a false impression. It's not actually broad opposition, just intense opposition.

Also interesting the messages that do best with MPs/elites are ones that highlight the other benefits of energy transition - benefits to consumers, jobs/levelling up, energy security. The messages that resonate most with the public are the big broad ones - future generations, saving the natural world and focusing on the impacts/extreme weather.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Some of the issues in the UK with the parliamentary parties becoming more difficult to govern tracks with my personal theory that you can understand a lot about British politics if you take American politics on like a 10-year delay, slightly moderated and watered down.

I don't know. The most important single change in US politics in the last 20 years has been the rise in partisanship in the bed rock solid base of each party irrespective of its ctions. That's just not happened here. Hard to imagine either GOP or democrats polling 20-30% as the Toris have been this year and Labour were under Corbyn.

Guns and abortion aren't issues here either and that makes a big difference.

Brit politicians and nerds love American politics and take far too many lessons from it than are due.

My original comment was mostly tongue-in-cheek, obviously no two countries are alike enough to explain one country's politics via such a simplistic mechanism. There are of course shared cultural influences that appear to be causing like political issues across the West and even beyond in recent decades, but there are still tremendous national differences as well--and important legal and constitutional ones as you point out.

I come at politics with a certain background and worldview--namely as an old fashioned dyed in the wool type of Republican who had been involved in politics in small ways. Not running for office or anything but back before I left the GOP I was involved in local central committee meetings and other organizing activity.

When I say that party discipline has grown worse in the United States I was thinking with that sort of context. In the "old days", you really didn't win primary elections without endorsement from the local committee powers that be in that district, be it for local city council or State legislative office. At the State level, the State level committees held similar influence. Since statewide offices could sometimes attract "characters", including ones with their own significant fundraising abilities, you would sometimes have nominees get in against the wishes of the State party committees but it was still quite rare even as recently as the early 2010s.

Note that these committees have no formal power to stop anyone--they haven't had that power since the reforms that started to go into effect after the 1968 primary which by the early 1980s had gutted the traditional party structures of their hard power control over candidate selection. But the committees are peopled by people who represent, generally, the important people affiliated with that party in a given district or State, this made it highly unlikely anyone was getting through a primary without their backing.

This system has largely fallen by the wayside, with groups outside the party, often representing extremist partisan positions, generally anointing a candidate--and the committees don't even stand up to them now, they largely move how these partisan forces tell them to; the party is essentially defanged. This hasn't lead to less partisanship, it actually has lead to more partisanship, which seems paradoxical but the character and makeup of the new powers that be is of hyper-partisan factionalists while the old committee grandees were "big party" guys who generally thought the way forward was to circle as many voters as possible which was usually done via some level of moderation.

[PJL]

Note that these committees have no formal power to stop anyone--they haven't had that power since the reforms that started to go into effect after the 1968 primary which by the early 1980s had gutted the traditional party structures of their hard power control over candidate selection. But the committees are peopled by people who represent, generally, the important people affiliated with that party in a given district or State, this made it highly unlikely anyone was getting through a primary without their backing.

This system has largely fallen by the wayside, with groups outside the party, often representing extremist partisan positions, generally anointing a candidate--and the committees don't even stand up to them now, they largely move how these partisan forces tell them to; the party is essentially defanged. This hasn't lead to less partisanship, it actually has lead to more partisanship, which seems paradoxical but the character and makeup of the new powers that be is of hyper-partisan factionalists while the old committee grandees were "big party" guys who generally thought the way forward was to circle as many voters as possible which was usually done via some level of moderation.

So basically a classic case of entryism in a party making it more extreme and overthrowing the old established order.

[Sheilbh]

One for Tamas. Just read a story about a proposed bridge over Morecambe Bay which would link West Cumbria with North Lancashire.

No idea if it's a good idea or not.

But I saw a novel concern from one Barrow resident who thought it would "kill" the town because people could leave more easily and move to Morecambe or Lancaster or Manchester

I suppose it was inevitable we'd end up with levelling up and protecting house prices by instituting internal passports eventually

[Josquius]

One for Tamas. Just read a story about a proposed bridge over Morecambe Bay which would link West Cumbria with North Lancashire.

No idea if it's a good idea or not.

But I saw a novel concern from one Barrow resident who thought it would "kill" the town because people could leave more easily and move to Morecambe or Lancaster or Manchester

I suppose it was inevitable we'd end up with levelling up and protecting house prices by instituting internal passports eventually

Sounds like that person is very confused.
Easier access to bigger richer towns can definitely kill off a lot of business but that it would make people move enmasse.... Weird.

Also odd is this very idea. My knee jerk first impression is that it sounds like an idiotic waste of money. With all the infrastructure needs in the country why spend limited resources so people in a pretty sparsely inhabited area save a few minutes on their drive?

But a quick google and it seems its
being critically missold. It's always being called a bridge but it's actually a barrage with a car bridge just being a secondary benefit. The hydro electric potential does sound like a potentially good use of money.

It's a and on the state of people in this country that they feel the need to skew things so.

[Sheilbh]

It would be a lot more than a few minutes in fairness. Barrow is weirdly far from everywhere at the minute - it's about two hours drive to Manchester at the minute or an hour to Morecambe. It'd cut that in half at least.

And it's not like Barrow is currently thriving - but maybe we can compromise: build the tidal barrage without the carbridge. Residents of Barrow remain trapped in Barrow as, apparently, they like it but we get some good tidal power

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is worth bearing in mind that "local resident" is very much a synonym for "idiot" 

The Barrow tale is very common in the North-West though. It is fine if you are on the M6 and West Coast mainline, which Preston is, but the journey times get abysmal as you move away from that spine.

In terms of levelling up, the mid-Lancashire area has a GVA per capita that has started moving ahead of the national average in recent years https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc572/index.html

I put that down to decent transport infrastructure and proximity to Manchester.

Barrow must be pretty shit if there are fears that the residents might flee to Morecambe 

[Sheilbh]

Interesting seeing summaries of Hunt's statement.

Obviously it's very Osborne-ite in its approach and even stealing his political tricks from the Cameron era.

There's something slightly odd that in 2024 after all the chaos and political change that the choice at the next election will basically be continuity Cameronism plus Brexit v Brownism plus Brexit. It's basically back to 2010 even down to, if Labour win, Ed Miliband back in the same cabinet role he had in 2010

Edit: In terms of tricks its obvious you've got the fiscal rules which are looser and more sensible than Sunak's but as with all "fiscal rules" since Brown really started using them, mainly aimed at creating a dividing/attack line with the opposition.

But also some of the other things like getting former Labour health secretary Patricia Hewitt to do a review of integrated care, or appointing Sir Patrick Vallance (government Chief Scientific Adviser and formerly of GSK) to do a review of changes to EU regulations in digital, life sciences and green industries with the purpose of trying to stimulate those industries and innovations in them (which actually sounds like an interesting, sensible way of looking at inherited EU law as opposed to Rees-Mogg's nonsense).

Edit: Also this is striking from the OBR report:

simon wren-lewis
@sjwrenlewis
OBR "Inflation drops sharply over the course of next year and is dragged below zero in the middle of the decade" Had to check the numbers to ensure that wasn't a misprint. Market expectations for much higher interest rates, on which this forecast is based, really look silly.

Slightly mad that we're going to have tax rises and spending cuts plus loads of interest rate rises when the goverment's economic forecaster (which I generally disagree with and think should be abolished) is projecting that we'll be back to super-low inflation/deflationary conditions in a few years

[Josquius]

It is worth bearing in mind that "local resident" is very much a synonym for "idiot" 

The Barrow tale is very common in the North-West though. It is fine if you are on the M6 and West Coast mainline, which Preston is, but the journey times get abysmal as you move away from that spine.

In terms of levelling up, the mid-Lancashire area has a GVA per capita that has started moving ahead of the national average in recent years https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc572/index.html

I put that down to decent transport infrastructure and proximity to Manchester.

Explain: Wigan

[Gups]

Slightly mad that we're going to have tax rises and spending cuts plus loads of interest rate rises when the goverment's economic forecaster (which I generally disagree with and think should be abolished) is projecting that we'll be back to super-low inflation/deflationary conditions in a few years

I can see a lot of tax rises but have not seen any commentaries mentioning spending cuts - only increases in budgets or safeguarding although defence spending is being kept at 2%. No infrastructure cuts either - Sizewell, HS2 to Manchester and Northern Powerhouse Rail going ahead. What cuts are you referting to?

A pretty left-wing budget in my view given the tax increases for higher earners and on CGT and dividend allowances.

[Sheilbh]

I can see a lot of tax rises but have not seen any commentaries mentioning spending cuts - only increases in budgets or safeguarding although defence spending is being kept at 2%. No infrastructure cuts either - Sizewell, HS2 to Manchester and Northern Powerhouse Rail going ahead. What cuts are you referting to?

A pretty left-wing budget in my view given the tax increases for higher earners and on CGT and dividend allowances.

I saw that it was 50/50 tax rises and spending cuts - but you're right, I think that's over the five year fiscal rule period. It is 50/50 in that period, but all of the spending cuts are projected/planned for after the election/2024. So they're probably not going to happen.

As well as the Vallance post-Brexit regulation review, the new approach on "levelling up"/investment sounds a lot more sensible than the freeport/investment zone free-for-all.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is worth bearing in mind that "local resident" is very much a synonym for "idiot" 

The Barrow tale is very common in the North-West though. It is fine if you are on the M6 and West Coast mainline, which Preston is, but the journey times get abysmal as you move away from that spine.

In terms of levelling up, the mid-Lancashire area has a GVA per capita that has started moving ahead of the national average in recent years https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc572/index.html

I put that down to decent transport infrastructure and proximity to Manchester.

Explain: Wigan

Too close to Liverpool and Manchester city centres and with no university 

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally breakdown in this poll is another reason I think there's a bit of a 2010 vibe going, because the thing I find striking is the Lib Dem numbers:


While they're more opposed than not they're significantly closer to the Tories/more sympathetic to the Tories now than they were under Johnson and Truss. I've seen this on a few polls particularly around Sunak's personal approval.

It looks like there's not much of a honeymoon and whatever there is, it's over - but it's why I slightly wonder if Cameron plus Brexit as a strategy might work better than expected. I think many Labour voters are anti-Tory, I think there is a chunk of the Lib Dem vote that was basically just anti-Johnson and Truss. It might not be enough for the Tories to win, but I wonder if it'll be enough to save those Blue Wall seats. I certainly think they're willing to be convinced.

Yet another reason you should never trust the Lib Dems or think they're a "progressive" force

[Josquius]

I would still rather have the lib dems than the tories.
I like that the lib dems and tories overlap, fighting for control of the centre right is a much better place for them.

[Gups]

That's some weak sauce for the meat of your conclusion Shelf