Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Interesting little article on the covid demographic shifts at work.


BBC News - How seaside town newcomers sapped Tory strength
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62999568


Bodes Well.

The article makes the place sound like some kind of deep Tory heartland, but after checking it turns out it's just right next to Brighton...

Which is a weird little island of debauchery in a deep tory heartland.

[Sheilbh]

While I think Truss's crony might try to get up to new hijinks, it was already in the cards (and an already existing bill) that UK was going to replace GDPR with its own legislation with data adequacy maintained.

I'd say news item isn't that UK will replace GDPR, as they were always going to scrub out EU legislation from the UK, but Liz's mate has made a pronouncement that they'll pursue a have your cake and eat it policy where they can diverge more and still get the EU to deem it acceptable.

Yeah this was to an extent always the plan. From everything I've read of the old plan (and we're stil waiting for the new one), there isn't anything that I think threatens adequacy. Frankly it sounds like a lot of re-badging.

Adequacy doesn't mean you have to have GDPR. South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Israel, Canada (for commercial processing) don't have GDPR - the have a different DP regime, but you do need one. There was a bit of a kerfuffle in the data world because European data regulators basically came back and were pretty against giving the UK adequacy. The Commission (not unreasonably) pointed out that the UK had literally cut and paste GDPR into UK law and if the UK wasn't adequate, nowhere in the world is - and that adequacy decisions which are part of GDPR would be rendered meaningless

The real issue with adequacy for the UK is intelligence services and national security processing - just like for the US (or, even more negatively, say, Russia or China) - rather than, say, cookie rules. Of course there is an irony in that because GDPR doesn't apply to member states' intelligence agencies or law enforcement so it's imposing a standard of protection on European citizens' data that does not exist for the same data in Europe - I remember having a Dutch colleague who pointed out that adjusted for size there's vastly more wiretaps and surveillance in the Netherlands than the US or UK (wiretaps basically aren't admissible in court in the UK).

The article makes the place sound like some kind of deep Tory heartland, but after checking it turns out it's just right next to Brighton...

Nimbyism etc is not just a Tory thing

On the wider insanely unpopular policies that don't actually do much - I have no idea how professional politicians are this bad at politics

Aubrey Allegretti
@breeallegretti
Exclusive: Govt has scrapped offer of free train travel for military to attend remembrance services this November.

It was seen as "too great a loss to the taxpayer"

But ministers said not to have signed off on decision and are urgently reviewing it

On the other hand I find the track of Liz Truss' line here pretty hilarious:


Separately one bit of praise I will give to Truss is that she fired Conor Burns and withdrew the whip on Friday, I think, following allegations of serious misconduct at party conference on Tuesday. Which is better than the Johnson approach of not doing anything for 10 weeks and then being forced to do it - or the SNP approach of getting away with it. Burns is gay and has a reputation so this is probably another young men getting preyed on which, as I've said before, is a big part of these Pestminster scandals.

Edit: Also Labour with a 30 point lead () in some polls but in all polls a massive lead - I don't think they're ahead by less than 20% in any of the polls - is good to see but also mad. I think it's actually more than Blair was leading by in the late 90s.

[Tamas]

Exclusive: Govt has scrapped offer of free train travel for military to attend remembrance services this November.

It was seen as "too great a loss to the taxpayer"

But ministers said not to have signed off on decision and are urgently reviewing it

Wow 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Tory Death Wish to piss off absolutely everyone in the UK continues 


They really have succeeded in unifying the country 

[Sheilbh]

Tory Death Wish to piss off absolutely everyone in the UK continues 


They really have succeeded in unifying the country 

It's amazing.

Really feel like if they can coalesce behind an alternative for a coronation (like Howard in 2003) they'll get rid of her soon. I've seen a few reports that the alternative might be Gove as a unity candidate within the Tories who will then lose with dignity as opposed to whatever Truss is doing - then I read the Times piece and saw Truss' team briefing against Gove and not sure he can act as unity candidate:

In an astonishing attack on Gove's character, a friend of Truss added: "Michael is troubled and has never found his place in the sun. There is something deeply troubling about the darkness inside him. It grips him and it takes over.

"It corrupts his soul. The more he plots, the more baggage he collects and the more conflicted he then becomes about who and what he is. His answer to everything is more tax, more salami slicing, more failed economics. The Tory party has rejected him."

Needless to say when there's internal briefing like that things are pretty bad in a party. On the other hand. Mordaunt has apparently reactivated her team. But, in general, it's hard to disagree with this MP:

Another MP added: "The options are death if we stick with Liz or ridicule if we get someone else and right now ridicule seems preferable."

[Richard Hakluyt]

That description of Gove...like something out of Game of Thrones 

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think they would be wise to call an election asap, lose it and go and have a period of reflection. All they can do now is further damage to the country and further damage to themselves as the electorate gets angrier and angrier.

[Sheilbh]

I think they would be wise to call an election asap, lose it and go and have a period of reflection. All they can do now is further damage to the country and further damage to themselves as the electorate gets angrier and angrier.

I agree but I think when a party's in that situation the Micawber instinct takes over and they'll hang on to the last minute in the hope that something will turn up which will save their skins.

It probably won't and even if it does it won't help them - Major in 1996 had very solid growth etc but it didn't matter because people had made up their mind. I think there's something similar here.

Edit: Incidentally at least as important as the almost absurdly good polling for Labour in the red wall and the countryside, is that Scottish Labour looks like it's very much reviving. They're polling at around 30% which is a level they haven't been at in a decade - and certainly not since the big collapse in 2015. Starmer now has about the same approval rating as Sturgeon which is also important (Sarwar doesn't do quite as well).

[Josquius]

I think they would be wise to call an election asap, lose it and go and have a period of reflection. All they can do now is further damage to the country and further damage to themselves as the electorate gets angrier and angrier.

.
Even thinking in terms of what's best for the tories rather than the country that's probably true. Things are in such a state right now starmer would be able to do nothing but damage limitation, things will still get worse

[The Larch]

That description of Gove...like something out of Game of Thrones 

Either Gove or Sauron. 

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally - this isn't an outlier poll, according to the Spectator this is the average of six polls by different polling companies:


These numbers are so bad they're basically breaking prediction models, the New Statesman's has Labour on 465 MPs and the Tories down to about 85

Needless to say I fully support FPTP again

Edit: And for context I think everyone's always thought there's about a 30% floor for both of the big parties. Labour fell to about that in 2010 and the Tories did in 1997, so polling significantly below 30% is very rare  - it happened a bit under Corbyn, May and Major. Obviously it's a very bad sign for the Tories.....

[Valmy]

Yeah well it is a long time until 2025.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah well it is a long time until 2025.

Sure we've got at most two years more. The Tories might and probably will recover a bit.

But those are the sort of number and this is the sort of issue that blows up a government's standing more or less irreparably. It's a bit like with Major after Black Wednesday it was all over even if they had five more years in office and by the end of that time the UK economy was growing at about 4% especially because economic competence is the Tory trump card. It's an area they've never lost their lead to Labour on since 2010 - until now.

Edit: Also most people didn't really know who Truss or Kwarteng were - they had a bit of a pause because of the death of the Queen. This means that mini-budget is the first impression of them not, say, their energy support package. I think once people form an opinion/perception it's very difficult to shift and Truss' approval rating is -47 which is, I think, the lowest ever recorded (and about the levels Jeremy Corbyn was at).

[The Larch]

Just read that John Cleese has joined GB News. 

[Tamas]

Just read that John Cleese has joined GB News. 

Oh FFS