Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

Incidentally for Brits - the Speaker's accepted a request from Zelensky to read a statement to the Commons tomorrow at 5 which might be worth watching.

Separately I'm just thinking about desire in Europe to move away from Russian gas - obviously in the long-term the solution is de-carbonisation but that is difficult especially where the gas is for domestic use as Zanza's pointed out about Germany. Is it possible or worth looking at whether we can extract more gas from the North Sea as a short/medium term option? I don't think it'd be enough to affect prices globally but it might be possible to offer some direct replacement through pipelines that already exist at least for the next few years?

Edit: Could the Norwegians? Are there any other bits of Europe with any gas fields that could help as a short/medium-term replacement?

I think much of the North Sea gas fields are in the long tail of their production profile.

[Duque de Bragança]

Incidentally for Brits - the Speaker's accepted a request from Zelensky to read a statement to the Commons tomorrow at 5 which might be worth watching.

Separately I'm just thinking about desire in Europe to move away from Russian gas - obviously in the long-term the solution is de-carbonisation but that is difficult especially where the gas is for domestic use as Zanza's pointed out about Germany. Is it possible or worth looking at whether we can extract more gas from the North Sea as a short/medium term option? I don't think it'd be enough to affect prices globally but it might be possible to offer some direct replacement through pipelines that already exist at least for the next few years?

Edit: Could the Norwegians? Are there any other bits of Europe with any gas fields that could help as a short/medium-term replacement?

I think much of the North Sea gas fields are in the long tail of their production profile.

Norway is in the same situation, and outside of Europe but well connected to Europe, Algerian production is also on decline.

So basically, no.

In more local news, the project of a NE Portuguese link (in the Bragança region  ) to the Spanish natural gas network (3rd inter-connection) is now debated again. Cancelled in 2020, cascading from a cancellation of an trans-Pyrénées gas network project, itself part of pan-European project of natural gas distribution network.

https://www.gem.wiki/Spain-Portugal_Interconnector_Gas_Pipeline

[Sheilbh]

Just watching Zelensky's address and Blackford from the SNP was making his point - George Galloway has really ruined the phrase "President x we salute you" being uttered in a Scottish accent

[Sheilbh]

I know this is one of those things where I will look like I'm more to the right than Atilla the Hun, but isn't there a case for both?


We should be spending, in my view, about £30 billion a year on net zero to improve housing stock, increase renewables, improve international energy grid connections, improve conditions for EVs etc. Some of that we'll be able to do quickly.

But in the short term there is a case for increasing UK oil and gas production which might help with the very high prices given the supply shock which would be a useful thing domestically, but also help other European countries by offering alternative supplies. Separately we probably need emergency targeted support from the Treasury for the poorest and most vulnerable in place ahead of next winter.

I'm not sure its right that these two are in an either/or?

[Josquius]

I guess the issue is it costs X to increase domestic supply no matter whether that lasts 5 years or 50. Open that door and of course those profiting from it will want to make the most possible from their investment and it'll be very hard to close the tap once it's open.

Early vibes from Newcastle councils heat pump experiment are proving to be quite a disaster I hear 

[Sheilbh]

I guess the issue is it costs X to increase domestic supply no matter whether that lasts 5 years or 50. Open that door and of course those profiting from it will want to make the most possible from their investment and it'll be very hard to close the tap once it's open.

I agree - but I also think there's a difference betwen opening it (and not just the UK) by choice in Spring/Summer which will allow time for things to be in place by winter v a serious winter fuel crisis here and in the rest of Europe.

I think, say, granting five year licenses or adding a sunset clause to legislation is different than what we'd have to do if it was emergency legislation/authorisations in response to an immediate crisis.

[Sheilbh]

Ben Wallace continues to impress (I think Truss has been pretty solid too). Statement today on defensive supplies including that the UK has decided to supply "Star Streak high velocity anti-aircraft missiles" and training to use them - presumably out of country but not sure.

Labour Defence Secretary praised that decision and noted that he'll be visiting British troops in Estonia tonight with Keir Starmer - it is good to have a bit of the old consensus back around foreign and defence policy. Although the SNP have pushed for a no fly zone to be put on the table - this is, as with the Remainer-zero covid-nuclear war pipeline - what happens when you define your views based on not agreeing with Boris Johnson. As the Tories in Scotland have pointed out the SNP view of supporting unilateral nuclear disarmament and imposing a no fly zone on Russian forces is quite the combo Nicola Sturgeon framed it as the only thing nuclear weapons are deterring is proper support for Ukraine

But interestingly Wallace was asked whether aircraft are a defensive weapon (the UK is only willing to supply "defensive weapons" which it defines as for use within Ukraine) his response on Poland too:

It depends how you use those aircraft. If you are close air support to Kyiv then it's obviously defensive, if you are seeking to entering another sovereign's territory like the Russian airforce then it is not [...]
If the Polish govt feels the security threat is so acute that it requires itself to do that I would fully understand their decision and stand by them.
[...]
Remember that countries that will face the direct consequence of a successful Russia in Ukraine are the bordering countries, bcause we know in Putin's mind, some of those aren't, in his ideas, genuine countries and some of those countries are the very countries he historically feels should either be punished or indeed should be coerced into his way of thinking.

Feels like a fairly significant statement in support of Poland - but also probably aimed at, again, reassuring Baltic countries especially of continued UK support.

Meanwhile the Home Office and Patel continue to live down to the lowest expectation. And it's extraordinary because they're miles out of touch with public opinion, they're getting monstered by Tory backbench MPs (saw one clip of one furiously - and rightly - saying "it's a disgrace" and telling the Minister/Home Office to "get a grip") and this entirely fair, but brutal, Spectator front cover:


This thread from a Sky reporter is just dire:
https://twitter.com/AliBunkallSKY/status/1501564593679835138

Zero ability to pivot/respond - just pure "computer says no" nonsense. What's even more striking is that both Wallace and Truss have basically disowned the policy when asked about it by saying "I'm not the Home Secretary - you would need to speak with her."

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is shameful 

[Sheilbh]

I hadn't noticed it but I think it's possibly striking in terms of opinion of other cabinet minister that Nadhim Zahawi is writing an opinion piece on his experience as a refugee from Saddam in the same edition as that front page.

[Syt]

[Josquius]

Rigorously defending against the accusation they've had a good idea there.

[Sheilbh]

Terms of reference out for the covid public inquiry. Obviously this is a good thing and it's right these seem wide but I expect this will take many years however "timely" they try to be:

UK COVID-19 Inquiry: draft terms of reference (HTML)
Published 10 March 2022

The inquiry will examine, consider and report on preparations and the response to the pandemic in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, up to and including the inquiry's formal setting-up date. In doing so, it will consider reserved and devolved matters across the United Kingdom, as necessary, but will seek to minimise duplication of investigation, evidence gathering and reporting with any other public inquiry established by the devolved administrations.

The aims of the inquiry are to:
1. Examine the COVID-19 response and the impact of the pandemic in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and produce a factual narrative account. Including:
    In relation to central, devolved and local public health decision-making and its consequences:
        preparedness and resilience;
        how decisions were made, communicated and implemented;
        intergovernmental decision-making;
        the availability and use of data and evidence;
        legislative and regulatory control;
        shielding and the protection of the clinically vulnerable;
        the use of lockdowns and other 'non-pharmaceutical' interventions such as social distancing and the use of face coverings;
        testing and contact tracing, and isolation;
        restrictions on attendance at places of education;
        the closure and reopening of the hospitality, retail, sport and leisure sectors, and cultural institutions;
        housing and homelessness;
        prisons and other places of detention;
        the justice system;
        immigration and asylum;
        travel and borders; and
        the safeguarding of public funds and management of financial risk.

    The response of the health and care sector across the UK, including:
        preparedness, initial capacity and the ability to increase capacity, and resilience;
        the management of the pandemic in hospitals, including infection prevention and control, triage, critical care capacity, the discharge of patients, the use of 'Do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation' (DNACPR) decisions, the approach to palliative care, workforce testing, changes to inspections, and the impact on staff and staffing levels;
        the management of the pandemic in care homes and other care settings, including infection prevention and control, the transfer of residents to or from homes, treatment and care of residents, restrictions on visiting, and changes to inspections;
        the procurement and distribution of key equipment and supplies, including PPE and ventilators;
        the development and delivery of therapeutics and vaccines;
        the consequences of the pandemic on provision for non-COVID related conditions and needs; and
        provision for those experiencing long-COVID

The economic response to the pandemic and its impact, including government interventions by way of:
        support for businesses and jobs, including the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme, loans schemes, business rates relief and grants;
        additional funding for relevant public services; and
        benefits and sick pay, and support for vulnerable people.

2. Identify the lessons to be learned from the above, thereby to inform the UK's preparations for future pandemics.

In meeting these aims, the inquiry will:
    listen to the experiences of bereaved families and others who have suffered hardship or loss as a result of the pandemic. Although the inquiry will not investigate individual cases of harm or death in detail, listening to these accounts will inform its understanding of the impact of the pandemic and the response, and of the lessons to be learned;
    highlight where lessons identified from preparedness and the response to the pandemic may be applicable to other civil emergencies;
    consider the experiences of and impact on health and care sector workers, and other key workers, during the pandemic;
    consider any disparities evident in the impact of the pandemic and the state's response, including those relating to protected characteristics under the Equality Act 2010 and equality categories under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, as applicable;
    have reasonable regard to relevant international comparisons; and
    produce its reports (including interim reports) and any recommendations in a timely manner.

[Sheilbh]

So after a local campaign which led to government deciding to hold a public inquiry into the planning decision for a new terminal at Leeds Bradford Airport, the airport's just withdrawn their application and won't be expanding (while, in fact, any government with ambition should be doing everything they could to turn Leeds-Bradford into a major connurbation).

As Sam Bowman put it - block everything in the South because Levelling Up, block everything in the North because Net Zero

Especially after the Oxford-Cambridge Arc, HS2, various public transport plans in the North getting cancelled it just feels like we've managed to build a system where all the incentives are to keep the country very low productive, not growing very much and with entrenched regional inequalities

On the upside Andy Burnham won the three year long court case/judicial review of his plans for Greater Manchester buses which means local authorities can do a lot more now (thanks to Theresa May's bus reform - possibly the best thing she did as PM ).

[Josquius]

Leeds Bradford Airport needs knocking down and rebuilding elsewhere really.
I've been told by a friend in the airline industry that its infamous for always getting fog due to the fact its on top of a mountain.
This was  also the major factor in the frequently talked about but eternally cancelled rail link not happening.

It should be a simple choice for the government - better airport for Leeds or better links across the pennines so they can use Manchester easier.

[Sheilbh]

Meanwhile in London the Secretary of State for Transport has overruled a local council that gave permission for TfL and a developer to build 350 houses (40% social rents) on a carpark owned by TfL