Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, I don't understand the dislike of the supermarket sector here in the UK. They appear to be efficient and make very limited profits in a highly competitive market; ie capitalism as it should be.

[Zanza]

The Tesco chairman expects short-term disruption:
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/tesco-chairman-warns-of-short-term-food-shortages-after-brexit/649458.article

Also lots of articles that a lot of food products will become more expensive, deal or no deal.

[Tamas]

Yes, I don't understand the dislike of the supermarket sector here in the UK. They appear to be efficient and make very limited profits in a highly competitive market; ie capitalism as it should be.

It used to be in fashion in Hungary as well to virtue-signal by publicly preferring the small shops over the supermarkets. I am not saying actually shop in small shops of course, people never went THAT far,  merely just to hold their nose up when discussing supermarkets (less so when going there).

[Tamas]

The Tesco chairman expects short-term disruption:
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/tesco-chairman-warns-of-short-term-food-shortages-after-brexit/649458.article

Also lots of articles that a lot of food products will become more expensive, deal or no deal.

A small price to pay for... whatever we are getting out of this, surely.

[Syt]

The Tesco chairman expects short-term disruption:
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/tesco-chairman-warns-of-short-term-food-shortages-after-brexit/649458.article

Also lots of articles that a lot of food products will become more expensive, deal or no deal.

A small price to pay for... whatever we are getting out of this, surely.

[The Brain]

Why is it always Nazi smurfs?

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Tesco chairman expects short-term disruption:
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/tesco-chairman-warns-of-short-term-food-shortages-after-brexit/649458.article

Also lots of articles that a lot of food products will become more expensive, deal or no deal.

He is a bit more optimistic than I am; I expect hoarding and panic-buying to contribute to the nation's gaiety in the new year.

The increase in prices I'm not so sure about. Clearly food from the EU will be more expensive but food from elsewhere may be cheaper due to a reduction in tariffs. Tate and Lyle was a big supporter of brexit for example, they will get their raw materials (sugar cane) at a cheaper price than what they pay now for sugar beet, with expected savings of £73m pa apparently https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/08/brexit-backers-tate-lyle-set-to-gain-73m-from-end-of-eu-trade-tariffs .
I suspect that basic food will become cheaper and the nicer stuff from the EU more expensive, which is bad for people like me but good for people who are poor.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, I don't understand the dislike of the supermarket sector here in the UK. They appear to be efficient and make very limited profits in a highly competitive market; ie capitalism as it should be.

It used to be in fashion in Hungary as well to virtue-signal by publicly preferring the small shops over the supermarkets. I am not saying actually shop in small shops of course, people never went THAT far,  merely just to hold their nose up when discussing supermarkets (less so when going there).

Yes, I think that is certainly part of it, probably a major part.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, I don't understand the dislike of the supermarket sector here in the UK. They appear to be efficient and make very limited profits in a highly competitive market; ie capitalism as it should be.

Yeah. I mean I think about it and they held up well during covid - there's been no stories I can think of them horrendously mistreating staff like, say, Amazon. They do seem like a functioning capitalist bit of the economy.

He is a bit more optimistic than I am; I expect hoarding and panic-buying to contribute to the nation's gaiety in the new year.

I think the fact they had a massive test run with lots of panic buying and global stress on all of their supply chains is probably why they're feeling a little bit more optimistic/prepared.

[Sheilbh]

I am not a massive libertarian but I feel like we do probably need to roll-back some restrictions especially around public health. For example today the government announced this:
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/total-restriction-of-online-advertising-for-products-high-in-fat-sugar-and-salt-hfss/introducing-a-total-online-advertising-restriction-for-products-high-in-fat-sugar-and-salt-hfss

It includes total bans on advertising on your own website or using adwords for, say jam or pies that you make. And the big brands can probably take the hit, it'll mainly impact small businesses.

It's a bit like all of the calorie requirements they want to roll out on small businesses. I'm ordering dessert - I know it's not fucking healthy

The one possible upside of someone like Johnson who positions himself as basically a jolly libertarian is now gone

(I would also add that this and monitoring of epidemics/disease control are both within the budget of Public Health England and I feel like those should be separate budgetary pots and I'm kind of fine with the disease control budget being bigger than monitoring online advertisements for marmalade )

[Tamas]

I am not a massive libertarian but I feel like we do probably need to roll-back some restrictions especially around public health. For example today the government announced this:
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/total-restriction-of-online-advertising-for-products-high-in-fat-sugar-and-salt-hfss/introducing-a-total-online-advertising-restriction-for-products-high-in-fat-sugar-and-salt-hfss

It includes total bans on advertising on your own website or using adwords for, say jam or pies that you make. And the big brands can probably take the hit, it'll mainly impact small businesses.

It's a bit like all of the calorie requirements they want to roll out on small businesses. I'm ordering dessert - I know it's not fucking healthy

The one possible upside of someone like Johnson who positions himself as basically a jolly libertarian is now gone

(I would also add that this and monitoring of epidemics/disease control are both within the budget of Public Health England and I feel like those should be separate budgetary pots and I'm kind of fine with the disease control budget being bigger than monitoring online advertisements for marmalade )

As you point out, often if there's any point to such excess restrictions is to restrict competition.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think it's that - I hate to go full Daily Mail but we've had a developing nanny state-ism around food for a long time now. I think it's just constant "something must be done", "this is something", "therefore this must be done". And (to go fully Daily Mail) I just think that at some point a politician needs to tell them to fuck off and let people take responsibility.

If I order a kebab and chips after a night out it is in the fully knowledge and hope that it will be fatty and salty. There is a point at which I believe in personal responsibility and the state butting out,  I think for me it's the dinner table/take-away counter/restaurant table  

This, it turns out, is the issue when I become full Farage standing in a pub shouting about our traditional liberties and freedoms 

[Zanza]

I guess supermarkets will eventually cope, but choice might be reduced due to trade barriers with the continent. Especially fresh produce cannot be realistically sourced elsewhere in the world as that will impact either freshness or price (and ecological food print). Early on, the expected clusterfuck at the border will disrupt supply chains, so some products might be unavailable.

A related issue is farming: The UK is in a bit of a dilemma here.
Exports to the biggest current trade partner, the EU, are only possible when you produce to EU standards. But that necessitates an FTA as otherwise there are high tariffs to protect European farmers.
If you lower your standards and/or have few tariffs, so that consumer prices are low, it means that British agriculture will be wiped out by exposure to the world market and having a much harder time to export.

There are studies that try to quantify the expected effect:

The LSE reckons on a 62% drop in food imports without a deal, and 23% less even if there is one.

The LSE study went on to look at prices. Inbound, EU cheeses such as feta from Greece, are forecast to go up in price 55% under "no deal": prosciutto ham and bratwurst up 32% with "no deal". They'd still rise in price 6% or 7% with a free trade agreement.

One thing you might expect is substitution. British producers switching production, given time and investment, to make more European styles of cheese or meat. Or we change our tastes to British produce, and eat even more cheddar.

[Zanza]

I don't think it's that - I hate to go full Daily Mail but we've had a developing nanny state-ism around food for a long time now. I think it's just constant "something must be done", "this is something", "therefore this must be done". And (to go fully Daily Mail) I just think that at some point a politician needs to tell them to fuck off and let people take responsibility.

If I order a kebab and chips after a night out it is in the fully knowledge and hope that it will be fatty and salty. There is a point at which I believe in personal responsibility and the state butting out,  I think for me it's the dinner table/take-away counter/restaurant table  

This, it turns out, is the issue when I become full Farage standing in a pub shouting about our traditional liberties and freedoms 

As that stuff is not (yet?) around here, I guess you have to blame unelected bureaucrats in Whitehall for this.

[Sheilbh]

As that stuff is not (yet?) around here, I guess you have to blame unelected bureaucrats in Whitehall for this.

I do.

I guess supermarkets will eventually cope, but choice might be reduced due to trade barriers with the continent. Especially fresh produce cannot be realistically sourced elsewhere in the world as that will impact either freshness or price (and ecological food print). Early on, the expected clusterfuck at the border will disrupt supply chains, so some products might be unavailable.

Sure, although I think we're already there on produce - we get apples from New Zealand and a lot of produce from Kenya when I go around the supermarket. I think we're already pretty bad on the environmental impact. I remember getting unreasonably annoyed about a Daily Mail headline being outraged at New Zealand apples in March - because that's not apple season in the UK/Europe so of course it's going to be from somewhere far away.

A related issue is farming: The UK is in a bit of a dilemma here.

I imagine we'll end up subsidising farmers. But I don't know farmers don't have much of a political constituency so I wouldn't be surprised if they just continue to struggle (beause things aren't going great for them yet).

I don't think there's any way we'll lower standards. It's why I think all talk of a US trade deal is fantasy. There is no chance a US trade deal (which will include agriculture) would get passed in the UK, the domestic opposition on food would just be far, far too high.

On the issue of food - there are some particular issues relating to Northern Ireland which need to be ironed out. The DUP and Sinn Fein sent a joint letter (which doesn't happen often) to the Commission on this, from Tony Connelly of RTE:

Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Breaking: The DUP and Sinn Fein leaders have sent a joint letter to the European Commission describing as "unacceptable" the alleged threat to the continuity of existing food supplies to Northern supermarkets once the Northern Ireland Protocol takes effect.
2/ The letter, seen by @rtenews, and signed by @DUPleader and @moneillsf, highlights the problem of the need for checks and controls on food products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain from January 1 and how that might impact on the supply of food to supermarket chains.
3/ The First/Dep First Ministers write: "It is hard to imagine a more fundamental aspect of everyday life than the purchase of daily food supplies...
4/ "Hence we would ask you to recognise how important it is that the current consideration of the detail of how the Protocol will be applied takes our unique context into account."
5/ Under the Protocol, food and animal derived products entering NI from Great Britain will be subject to the EU's food safety regime, meaning that so-called sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks will be required on a range of products destined for supermarket shelves.
6/ EU and UK officials have been grappling with the issue through the Joint Committee, set up under the Withdrawal Agreement to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol.
7/ Industry representatives say that thousands of goods within lorry containers could require EU export health certificates in order to qualify for entry into Northern Ireland.
8/ Writing to the EU's representative on the Joint Committee, European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič, the First and Deputy First Minister said: "Last week, there was a meeting that included representatives from our main supermarkets here.
9/ These representatives have emphasised how critical the current situation is, with a real threat to the continuity of the supply of existing food and other products to our market unless these issues are urgently addressed and solutions found."
10/  They added: "This is an unacceptable situation for us to be in, especially so late in the process."
11/ The two leaders say they welcome the "constructive work" both sides have been engaged in and acknowledge that they are seeking "a pragmatic application of the principles and purpose of the SPS controls".
12/ They refer to the "best endeavours" clause within the Protocol which they say "can and must secure an outcome which guarantees the normal flow of agri-food products to our people."
13/ The ministers say any outcome that would lead to "material price increases and/ or reduced choice for consumers would be an unacceptable consequence which cannot have been the intention of anyone when the Withdrawal Agreement was settled."
14/  The letter states: "We recognise clearly the absolute importance of the SPS controls to the European Commission and the Member States and we would want to make it clear that we are not asking for anything that would create any form of health risk.
15/ "We are hopeful and confident that with goodwill and pragmatism an agreed approach can be settled and applied.
16/ "In any case, we are doing all that is possible to ensure that the necessary processes will be in operation to ensure goods can flow through our ports of entry at the end of the Transition Period."
17/ The UK has been seeking blanket derogations or facilitations covering food products moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. However, Commission and member states have been concerned that EU food safety rules should be respected in order to protect consumer health.
18/ After January 1, any goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain will in theory be able to circulate throughout the single market. Food products or products derived from animal products will not have been produced under EU food standards rules.
19/ There have been reports that some UK supermarket chains may close their outlets in Northern Ireland or reduce the range of products destined for Northern Ireland.
20/ The letter states: "We look forward to an urgent resolution of these issues, as businesses here need clarity as soon as possible on the precise detail of the changes that will affect them.
21/ "So we would look forward to seeing significant decisions resolved and confirmed at the next meeting of the Joint Committee."
22/ Ms Foster and Ms O'Neill state that some of the issues will be made simpler by the conclusion of a free trade agreement, "but urgent action to resolve the issues in the Protocol need not and should not be dependent on that process."

The EU Commission's response today seems a little distant from the practical issue in Northern Ireland:

See new Tweets
Conversation
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
·
7h
Response from European Commission spokes @DanielFerrie
to the joint letter from @DUPleader
and @moneillsf on food consignments to NI supermarkets under the NI Protocol:
2/ "We can confirm receipt of a letter from the First Minister and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland on the issue of agri-food goods brought into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. We will reply to this letter shortly.
3/ "The Withdrawal Agreement's Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland prevents the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland. It protects peace, stability and prosperity, North-South cooperation and the integrity of the EU Single Market.
4/ "In order to do so, certain EU rules will continue to apply in Northern Ireland after the end of the transition period. That means that goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, and the rest of the world, will need to meet EU rules on food safety.
5/ "These rules are there to protect the health and safety of consumers in the single market, including consumers in Northern Ireland. We are aware, of course, of the concerns raised regarding supermarkets and the import of food products into Northern Ireland.
6/ "We take this issue very seriously – in the same way that we are taking very seriously every single issue regarding Northern Ireland.
7/ "We are currently exploring all options available under EU law. Discussions on this will continue with our UK counterparts in the Joint Committee and the relevant Specialised Committee."

Ends