French regional elections

[viper37]

What are the odds this would be a repeat of the Presidential election where El Chi won his last victory?  I.e, what are the odds the opposition to the FN will rally behind any candidate able to beat them and we will see their numbers crumble in the second turn?

btw, how much time between 1st and 2nd round, 2 weeks?

[The Minsky Moment]

During the wars of religion, Paris was the ultracatholic stronghold. A couple centuries later, not so much.

I've been reading Emmanuel Todd's L'invention de Europe - he has a whole riff on the idea of the ultracatholic agitation of that period as precursor to the revolutionary moment of the late 18th century.

[Duque de Bragança]

Run-off is next Sunday.
Front républicain is over since it tends to validate FN ideas such as right and left are the same, according to the conservatives and centre. On the other hand, the PS has chosen in some cases to withdraw, out of their own volition, their candidates who arrived third. It's called barrage républicain. Only in two regions, another socialist candidate refused orders from Paris, so he's running without PS endorsement in the Greater East region.

[alfred russel]

During the wars of religion, Paris was the ultracatholic stronghold. A couple centuries later, not so much.

I've been reading Emmanuel Todd's L'invention de Europe - he has a whole riff on the idea of the ultracatholic agitation of that period as precursor to the revolutionary moment of the late 18th century.

Can you share the outlines?

[The Minsky Moment]

His master theory is that family structure is a key determinant in social evolution (and that such structures  -- while enduring in space across long period of time - do not fall nicely within national boundaries).  The Parisian basin is what he categorizes as Nucleaire egailitaire (accents missing) - i.e. nuclear, non-extended families with equal status among brothers of different birth order.  During the reformation, areas with that family structure tended to support counter-reformatory (anti-Augustinian) Catholicism, because, as characterized by Todd, it is liberal and egalitarian on the metaphysical level - free will, anyone can be saved who chooses.  Todd also argues (and cites to work by others arguing) that the Catholic League in paris exhibited anti-aristocratic, and anti-monarchic tendencies, prefiguring the later revolutionary ideology.  Catholic support in the Parisian basin, while strong, was in Todd's view brittle.  He argues that the coming of the scientific revolution, where accompanied by a certain level of literacy, undermined belief in God in those regions with the nucleaire egalitaire family structure - this state of affairs is reached in the Paris in basin during the 18th century.  Ideology shifts from leaguist Catholicism and its liberal-egalitarian ideal of the world to come (metaphysical) to the revolutionary ideology of liberal-egalitarianism in this world (physical).

[alfred russel]

His master theory is that family structure is a key determinant in social evolution (and that such structures  -- while enduring in space across long period of time - do not fall nicely within national boundaries).  The Parisian basin is what he categorizes as Nucleaire egailitaire (accents missing) - i.e. nuclear, non-extended families with equal status among brothers of different birth order.  During the reformation, areas with that family structure tended to support counter-reformatory (anti-Augustinian) Catholicism, because, as characterized by Todd, it is liberal and egalitarian on the metaphysical level - free will, anyone can be saved who chooses.  Todd also argues (and cites to work by others arguing) that the Catholic League in paris exhibited anti-aristocratic, and anti-monarchic tendencies, prefiguring the later revolutionary ideology.  Catholic support in the Parisian basin, while strong, was in Todd's view brittle.  He argues that the coming of the scientific revolution, where accompanied by a certain level of literacy, undermined belief in God in those regions with the nucleaire egalitaire family structure - this state of affairs is reached in the Paris in basin during the 18th century.  Ideology shifts from leaguist Catholicism and its liberal-egalitarian ideal of the world to come (metaphysical) to the revolutionary ideology of liberal-egalitarianism in this world (physical).

That is awesome. I never gave much thought to it, and haven't read anything serious on the topic, but I always just assumed that after so much time and so much migration into Paris, there was just discontinuity between who was living there in the wars of religion and the revolution. Also, relatively speaking, Paris was much more dominated by commerce in 1789, less dominated by church/state/educators, and the church/state intellectual bond had weakened considerably.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm not sure I buy the theory but its fine work in the best of the French academic tradition: rigorous, exhaustively researched, multi-disciplinary, ambitious to the point of biting off more than can be chewed.

[The Minsky Moment]

I always just assumed that after so much time and so much migration into Paris, there was just discontinuity between who was living there in the wars of religion and the revolution.

I think Todd would argue that within a given region, family structure tends to be enduring across time, even in the presence of migration - i.e. the migrants tend to conform to the regional norm over time or their alternative structures remain a minority

[alfred russel]

I always just assumed that after so much time and so much migration into Paris, there was just discontinuity between who was living there in the wars of religion and the revolution.

I think Todd would argue that within a given region, family structure tends to be enduring across time, even in the presence of migration - i.e. the migrants tend to conform to the regional norm over time or their alternative structures remain a minority

Not that I have any basis to argue with Todd as I know jack about Paris during the revolution and wars of religion, and only know of his theory from what you posted.

But what seems most weak to me is that the people of paris supported the catholic cause in the wars of religion because they found the metaphysical framework appealing.

Very simplistically I think in terms of a company town: I'd expect a West Virginia coal mining town to be highly supportive of coal mining, even among the people that aren't directly involved in coal mining. During the 16th century, Paris was a sort of company town: the seat of the state. Catholicism was deeply embedded in everything about the state. In Paris in particular you also had lots of churches requiring upkeep, pilgrims, universities, clergy in administrative roles, etc. Converting to Protestantism was a revolutionary act, and that threatened Paris.

In 1789, not only had Versailles been constructed, but the city had become much more commercial and those church / state bonds significantly eroded. The merchant class was prone to revolution as this class was excluded in a sense from the existing power structure, and in earlier times was prone to be protestant in any event. The greatly expanded urban poor also had this same disaffection.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's a good point, but can it explain the level of feeling and zealotry by the leaguers?  NYC is pretty dependent on Wall Street but the masses of people aren't exactly ready to give their lives for carried interest.

[alfred russel]

That's a good point, but can it explain the level of feeling and zealotry by the leaguers?  NYC is pretty dependent on Wall Street but the masses of people aren't exactly ready to give their lives for carried interest.

It is a matter of degree. Paris was the capital both in the 16th century and 1789. Today New York is a massive city for which wall street provides significant benefits, but very few people are directly impacted by Wall Street.

Wikipedia says Paris was about 3 times larger in 1789 vs. the 16th century. So the city grew a lot, administration moved out to Versailles, and there was growing secularization. For example, a 16th century professor at the Sorbonne very likely was professionally tied to Catholic dogma, but that was less likely in 1789. Such a prestigious position wouldn't just influence his opinion, but also his family's, and quite possibly his servants as well. Maybe Paris went from being the equivalent of a West Virginia coal mining town to modern NYC.

I am of course talking with few facts and out of my ass.

[Duque de Bragança]

Back to the campaign in Île-de-France, Bartolone courts openly the ethnic vote and racialises class warfare in a regional election.
He is the notorious President of the notorious Seine Saint-Denis suburban department of Paris. His management has been  criticised by the Cour des Comptes (French court of Auditors).
http://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/seine-saint-denis-les-perles-de-la-gestion-a-la-bartolone-02-07-2015-1941889_1897.php

How? By depicting Valérie Pécresse, his centre and right opponent, as a defender of the white race, of Versailles and Neuilly (very wealthy suburbs). The Versailles association is comical since it evokes memories of the Suppression of the Paris Commune by the Versaillais troops of Thiers. Next Monday Bartolone up to the Mur des Fédérés? (Communards' Wall)    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communards%27_Wall

Precise Bartolone quote

Elle tient les mêmes propos que le FN, elle utilise une image subliminale pour faire peur. Avec un discours comme celui-là, c'est Versailles, Neuilly et la race blanche qu'elle défend en creux.

http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/politique/elections-regionales-2015/20151209.OBS1082/bartolone-pecresse-defend-versailles-neuilly-et-la-race-blanche.html

Reductio ad FN, variant of the reductio ad hitlerum. En creux, basically means crypto-whatever.

[Ed Anger]

I like the FN, just for the hot young chick.

[Duque de Bragança]

Wrong region Ed, sorry.

[Liep]

Wrong region Ed, sorry.

Why is she not front and national?