Saudi Arabia will likely go broke before the US oil industry buckles

[The Brain]

Ah yes, The Vast Right-Wing Genocide.

[Valmy]

There is nine million foreign workers in that country.  If the government fell there would be an enormous humanitarian crisis.  If an ISIS like government took control it could result in a vast genocide.

Damn they have more slaves than the 1860 American South.

Anyway a political collapse is not needed for Wahhabism to stop polluting the minds of Muslims around the world, an economic one should suffice just fine.

It is intriguing we need to keep the Saudis around to combat the thing they created but it is a weird world we live in.

[KRonn]

Hmm, as much as the Saudis are antithetical  to western and democratic thinking I'd still find it more of a problem if SA collapses. For one that would remove a powerful military and financial opponent to Iran, and as it is we see what Iran does all over the Mid East now. Plus it would remove an ally that helps fund other nations such as Egypt and Jordan who are US/western allies and who oppose the local extremist groups. Then the vacuum in SA and resulting civil war as radicals would likely take over would be a huge negative. Although it would stop the Wahabis from spreading their extremist influence to Mosques worldwide, we might find that those who take over are worse in similar or other ways which seems to be the norm for failed ME nations. I tend to think the Saudis are capapble of becoming more liberal, slowly over time, rather than those who would take over if SA falls.

[Valmy]

I tend to think the Saudis are capapble of becoming more liberal, slowly over time, rather than those who would take over if SA falls.

Not while they have all that oil wealth. And further if they do not have the oil wealth whether or not they are liberal is far less important.

[frunk]

I tend to think the Saudis are capapble of becoming more liberal, slowly over time, rather than those who would take over if SA falls.

I haven't seen any indication of that so far.

[KRonn]

Those who would take over in a civil war from a Saudi collapse would probably be far worse and much more long standing in their extremism. More like ISIS or Iran on steroids, I would think.

[Valmy]

Those who would take over in a civil war from a Saudi collapse would probably be far worse and much more long standing in their extremism. More like ISIS or Iran on steroids, I would think.

How could a country half the population of Iran, and devastated by civil war, be 'Iran on steroids'?

[KRonn]

Those who would take over in a civil war from a Saudi collapse would probably be far worse and much more long standing in their extremism. More like ISIS or Iran on steroids, I would think.

How could a country half the population of Iran, and devastated by civil war, be 'Iran on steroids'?

If taken over by ISIS types or an equivalent their ideology could be just as nasty as ISIS. They'd still have lots of oil revenue and they don't have to be as big as Iran to be a tough and radical problem.

[KRonn]

My thinking is that just because one nasty regime as in the Saudis are gone doesn't mean that the next one to take over is going to be better. I think that's a pretty safe supposition. We may not have relations with them at all, but with the Saudis the West and Saudis have worked towards similar goals a number of times.

[Valmy]

If taken over by ISIS types or an equivalent their ideology could be just as nasty as ISIS. They'd still have lots of oil revenue and they don't have to be as big as Iran to be a tough and radical problem.

KRonn the entire premise of this thread and this discussion is that they go broke. It is right there in the title.

My thinking is that just because one nasty regime as in the Saudis are gone doesn't mean that the next one to take over is going to be better. I think that's a pretty safe supposition. We may not have relations with them at all, but with the Saudis the West and Saudis have worked towards similar goals a number of times.

Nobody is assuming that. I am not sure what your point is. Saudi goes broke and cannot spend money destroying Islam throughout the world...but that is bad since the local Saudis might go radical? Eh I think it is better if 1 billion people have a better chance even if 30 million might become more radical than Saudi is today.

[Razgovory]

There is nine million foreign workers in that country.  If the government fell there would be an enormous humanitarian crisis.  If an ISIS like government took control it could result in a vast genocide.

Damn they have more slaves than the 1860 American South.

Anyway a political collapse is not needed for Wahhabism to stop polluting the minds of Muslims around the world, an economic one should suffice just fine.

It is intriguing we need to keep the Saudis around to combat the thing they created but it is a weird world we live in.

Well, it includes technical experts from other countries.  Still, it's rather telling that a country with 30 million people and 12% unemployment needs nine million foreign workers. It's a deeply dysfunctional country.

[The Minsky Moment]

  In reality, Washington is a bigger threat to shale drilling than Saudia Arabia.

We can block them with Oregon and use Idaho to flank.

[lustindarkness]

Nuke it from orbit.

[PJL]

I'd rather Iran ruled the ME than Saudi Arabia. At least they fund their terrorists more openly, and seem to have more control over them. Whereas Saudi Arabia is more insidious with theirs.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

There is nine million foreign workers in that country.  If the government fell there would be an enormous humanitarian crisis.  If an ISIS like government took control it could result in a vast genocide.

That's almost 1/3 of the total population of Saudi Arabia, though.  Plus, a large number are clustered in a small area.  They could probably take and hold significant amounts of territory if they wanted to.