Iran Nuclear Deal Highlights: The Good, the Bad, the Complicated

[Malthus]

The problem is that we may be looking at a "30 Year's War - Islamic Style" situation developing.

[The Brain]

Sweden is sending fighters.

[Syt]

Sweden is sending fighters. hiring local mercenaries

FYP

[derspiess]

The problem is that we may be looking at a "30 Year's War - Islamic Style" situation developing.

If we can keep it contained, then maybe it won't ultimately be a horrible thing.

[Valmy]

The problem is that we may be looking at a "30 Year's War - Islamic Style" situation developing.

Well we are four years in. Just have to make it to 2041.

[Malthus]

The problem is that we may be looking at a "30 Year's War - Islamic Style" situation developing.

If we can keep it contained, then maybe it won't ultimately be a horrible thing.

It's already pretty horrible. ISIS seems to go out of its way to invent new horrors to inflict.

I never thought I'd see the day wehen Americans of all people would decide that Iran's government was, comparatively, the 'good guys'!

[The Brain]

Americans thought Stalin was A-OK.

[Malthus]

Americans thought Stalin was A-OK.

Uncle Joe? 

[Valmy]

I never thought I'd see the day wehen Americans of all people would decide that Iran's government was, comparatively, the 'good guys'!

Meh didn't that pretty much happen after 9/11? We have been helping their dudes ever since.

[Malthus]

I never thought I'd see the day wehen Americans of all people would decide that Iran's government was, comparatively, the 'good guys'!

Meh didn't that pretty much happen after 9/11? We have been helping their dudes ever since.

Didn't the US just agree to take off economic sanctions it had helped impose on Iran for being naughty about nukes?

[Valmy]

Didn't the US just agree to take off economic sanctions it had helped impose on Iran for being naughty about nukes?

And? You said 'comparatively'.

[Malthus]

Didn't the US just agree to take off economic sanctions it had helped impose on Iran for being naughty about nukes?

And? You said 'comparatively'.

My impression is that the Deal is a move towards more of that; that prior to the Deal, the US mood was closer to the notion that both sides were 'bad' in their own way. The Deal, it strikes me, indicates not "normalization" exactly but more of a sense that the Iranians should be taken off the leash.

[crazy canuck]

The problem is that we may be looking at a "30 Year's War - Islamic Style" situation developing.

Yeah, but that is a better problem than ISIL winning in 5.

[Razgovory]

The zealots are still running Iran - we aren't going to normalize.

But this is just common sense power politics diplomacy.  US policy in the region is too reliant on the Gulf States and exposure to their problematic agendas.  There are problems with the other two traditional poles - Turkey and Egypt.  Relaxing a bit on Iran and finding areas of some common ground is a way of hedging bets and expanding possible options.

We aren't going to normalize because they don't want to or because we won't do it?  The zealots very recently had a run for the money with that little uprising.  I do agree that the US is too reliant on the Gulf states, which are weak, treacherous, and unstable.  ISIS is becoming a severe threat.  It's not difficult to imagine affiliated uprisings breaking out in Saudi Arabia and Jordan.  It's disturbing that groups outside of Syria and Iraq are making attacks in the name of ISIS.  God Help us, if Saudi Arabia fell to an uprising of ISIS inspired militants.

[Malthus]

The problem is that we may be looking at a "30 Year's War - Islamic Style" situation developing.

Yeah, but that is a better problem than ISIL winning in 5.

Maybe, maybe not. 

The 'best case' is that, with increased support from Iran, Shi'ite militias and Sunni opponents put down ISIS like rabid dogs, and then work out some sort of peace among themselves.

The 'worst case' is that Iranian support for Shi'ia militias discredits the existing Sunni opposition to ISIS, leading to an increase in ISIS support from Sunnis generally - that is, gives a boost to Sunni radicalism led by its current champions, ISIS, who are able to position themselves as the only real armed response to Shi'ism. That would suck, as it may well widen the conflict and end up with ISIS being even stronger than it is now.