Iran Nuclear Deal Highlights: The Good, the Bad, the Complicated

[Norgy]

The Saudis couldn't even assemble an airfix kit.

On the other hand they could probably pay the Pakistanis to do it for them 

And the Filipina maids to clean up the mess.

[Valmy]

The Iranians are 100% committed to regional hegemony world peace so I wouldn't expect them to do anything that would endanger that.

[crazy canuck]

AFAIK standard practice in normal countries is that inspectors can (and do) show up unannounced (notice of an hour or two). 24 h notice at facilities that are low risk.

Interesting.  What other countries allow foreign inspectors to inspect their nuclear facilities.  Not being sarcastic.

[crazy canuck]

The 24 day issue isn't really "notice".  From what I can gather from the reports is there is a 14 day notice that inspectors are coming and Iran then has the opportunity to dispute the inspection in an arbitration that can last no more than 10 days.

So then it's a 24 day notice.  Unless we made the Iranians pinky-swear not to abuse the arbitration period

You realize you cut out the part of my post that was responsive to the "pinky swear" rhetoric right?

[The Brain]

AFAIK standard practice in normal countries is that inspectors can (and do) show up unannounced (notice of an hour or two). 24 h notice at facilities that are low risk.

Interesting.  What other countries allow foreign inspectors to inspect their nuclear facilities.  Not being sarcastic.

I think it's standard practice for countries that have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but not all of those are into the Additional Protocol which may complicate the exact picture. For official nuclear weapon powers only civilian facilities are inspected.

Edit: https://www.iaea.org/safeguards/basics-of-iaea-safeguards/safeguards-facts-and-figures

[Valmy]

Our military facilities are inspected by comedians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y1ya-yF35g

[Razgovory]

Our military facilities are inspected by comedians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y1ya-yF35g

That's not fair.  Sometimes Chinese nationals come by to take a look at our military facilities as well.

[DGuller]

Our military facilities are inspected by comedians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y1ya-yF35g

That's not fair.  Sometimes Chinese nationals come by to take a look at our military facilities as well.

[DontSayBanana]

After Obama's press conference earlier, I realized I'm going to miss having a president that can use the word "a'ight" without trying to be ironic.

[Siege]

Too depressing to even comment on this topic.

[Valmy]

Too depressing to even comment on this topic.

What? You don't like peace?

[The Minsky Moment]

He wants ISIS to win?

[Malthus]

I'm of two minds on this.

I think the real issue from the perspective of either the 5+1 or Iran isn't nukes, but allowing Iran to become stronger in the face of the ISIS threat.

On the one hand, without a Shi'ite counterbalance, what we are likely to get right now is an ISIS wasteland covering the heart of Syria-Iraq seeking to expand and a bunch of frightened mostly-Sunni states on the one hand, an isolated Iran on the other, and a few oddballs like Israel and Lebanon.

On the other, boosting the Shi'ite sphere will certainly lead to an intensification of the current war, and may undermine Sunni resistance to ISIS - leading to a wider Sunni-Shi'ite civil war, in which all of the little regional conflicts currently underway link up. This could prove a very bloody proposition, and such conflicts have a terrible tendency to expand and suck in others.

This I see as a "worst case" scenario arising from the current deal - not Iran getting the bomb and nuking people (it was always likely Iran would eventually get the bomb, and always unlikely that they would nuke anyone with it), but an intensification of the current sectarian conflict into something worse, arising from Sunni reaction to Shi'ite assertions of strength, funded by Iran.

If that happens, we will all look back nostalgically on the good old days when some people in the West truly though that Israel-Palestinian business was *the* major ME conflict!

[Razgovory]

I honestly think we should support Iran against ISIS and normalize relations.  The Iranian revolution was over 30 years ago, and revolutionary zeal has faded quite a bit.  Unlike the Arabs, the Iranians have lived under theocracy for quite while, and know it won't solve all of their problems.  I think normalizing relations might help continue to mellow out Iran.

[The Minsky Moment]

The zealots are still running Iran - we aren't going to normalize.

But this is just common sense power politics diplomacy.  US policy in the region is too reliant on the Gulf States and exposure to their problematic agendas.  There are problems with the other two traditional poles - Turkey and Egypt.  Relaxing a bit on Iran and finding areas of some common ground is a way of hedging bets and expanding possible options.