The Off Topic Topic

[Razgovory]

THERE IS NO "S" IN THAT WORD!

[DGuller]

Really?
I guessed it would be surprisingly high (still small but within the realms of human thinking). Can't figure out how to work it out though considering all the possible combinations.
And I've no clue what  4.25796e-109 even means in real numbers.
Ah maths. How I have totally forgotten thee.

It's just cumulative binomial distribution.  It's one formula in Excel or the right calculator.  Of course, with n=180, these formulas would fail, but scaling down the numbers even by a factor of 10 (need 10 questions right out of 18) would still only give you 0.5% chance of passing.  If you make it 20 questions out of 36, the odds go down to 0.01%.  Hitting the books is a safer bet.  Going above n=36 is just an exercise in testing how far your calculator of choice can go before crapping out. 

[Eddie Teach]

In real world terms your chances would be much better cause the right answer almost always looks better than at least one of the wrong ones.

[DGuller]

In real world terms your chances would be much better cause the right answer almost always looks better than at least one of the wrong ones.

Assuming the test has 36 questions valued 5 points each, being able to eliminate one choice with 100% accuracy will increase your chances of passing from 0.01% to 0.50%, which is a huge improvement, granted, but probably still not sufficient.

[Josquius]

Yeah, real world of course somebody wouldn't be taking a test not having a clue about anything. I am curious though what the absolute bare minimum chances would be - a friend has been telling me of how they passed a multiple choice Chinese exam despite not having a clue about any of the questions, an obvious exageration but it got me thinking.

[Eddie Teach]

Assuming the test has 36 questions valued 5 points each, being able to eliminate one choice with 100% accuracy will increase your chances of passing from 0.01% to 0.50%, which is a huge improvement, granted, but probably still not sufficient.

Ok, but a lot of questions are likely to be 50/50 tossups or even gimmes. Depends on the test, of course, but generally you don't have to know very much to get 63% on a multiple choice test.

[DGuller]

Yeah, real world of course somebody wouldn't be taking a test not having a clue about anything. I am curious though what the absolute bare minimum chances would be - a friend has been telling me of how they passed a multiple choice Chinese exam despite not having a clue about any of the questions, an obvious exageration but it got me thinking.

Yeah, total bullshit.  No multiple choice exam that even pretends to be serious can ever be passed by pure guessing without an incredibly huge stroke of luck. 

Even a 20 question test with a 60% pass mark, and 4 choices, will be passed blind only one time out of a thousand, and the odds very quickly get exponentially worse as you add questions, choices, or increase the pass mark.  It sounds plausible that you can guess 12 answers out of 20, after all you're expected to get 5 on average, so how hard is it to run a little lucky and get 7 more?  Very hard, as it turns out.

[DGuller]

Assuming the test has 36 questions valued 5 points each, being able to eliminate one choice with 100% accuracy will increase your chances of passing from 0.01% to 0.50%, which is a huge improvement, granted, but probably still not sufficient.

Ok, but a lot of questions are likely to be 50/50 tossups or even gimmes. Depends on the test, of course, but generally you don't have to know very much to get 63% on a multiple choice test.

Even if you can reliably eliminate 2 out of 4 choices, on a test with 20 questions and 60% pass mark, you still only have 25% of passing.  If you can actually eliminate with perfect reliability 2 choices out of 4 on a test, then you already know a lot, and it's a testament to your pigheaded laziness that you didn't study a little bit more and actually nailed the material.

[Eddie Teach]

Even if you can reliably eliminate 2 out of 4 choices, on a test with 20 questions and 60% pass mark, you still only have 25% of passing.  If you can actually eliminate with perfect reliability 2 choices out of 4 on a test, then you already know a lot, and it's a testament to your pigheaded laziness that you didn't study a little bit more and actually nailed the material.

Like I said, it depends on the test. Sometimes the question writer eliminates the choices for you even if you know very little.

[Syt]

Pierre Cardin plans to "improve" on the skyline of Venice . . .

[Eddie Teach]

Bizarre looking skyscrapers give cities "character". 

[Lettow77]

 I started to raise strong protests, but Pierre Cardin's background checks out. Local eccentrics with sterling records should be indulged. -even if it just means agreeing until a 90 year old man dies and then scrapping the plans.

[Razgovory]

Kind of reminds me of a blender or something.

[Ideologue]

Link that suit, if you can.

I can link a jacket that is in the color I ordered, but the exact thing doesn't seem to be there anymore:  http://www.josbank.com/menswear/shop/Product_11001_10050_102514  I ordered it with the intention of getting something a little lighter than usual, in a "different" but not crazy color, you know? 

This is what came in the mail (it looks like that exact one, actually): http://www.josbank.com/menswear/shop/Product_11001_10050_102125 

You can see why I was all / about it.  Never had anything in either of these colors, only the standard charcoal and navy type stuff, but the second one is really....well different.  I'm back to hmming and hawing over it right now.  I've got the thing hanging on the folded up treadmill next to me and I'm just looking at it.   As I said, I can apparently pull it off, at least at first glance, but..... 

E:  And you know, when I ordered it, I actually said "That doesn't look to be that olive," or something similar.

Scrolled down a bit--blue tie with lavender shirt?



Btw, I appreciate the fact that googling Raiders led me to find that it's playing in Columbia.  I forgot about that.

[Ideologue]

Anyone happen to remember their maths?
I'm trying to calculate something- a test with a possible total score of 180, 100 needed to pass, all the questions are 4-option multiple choice.
What would be the probability of passing assuming its complete chance and the person is just guessing every one?

Impossible to determine without knowing the number of questions.

Edit: but if each question is 1 point, then 1 out of 4^100 I think.  So low.