The Off Topic Topic

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't understand the argument for Singh there, especially at the top.   

If you take the view (which I do) that Singh more than any single person helped knock the Indian economy out of its zero growth stagnation trap into its high growth path, then that's over 1 billion people whose futures were transformed.

[Neil]

I don't understand the argument for Singh there, especially at the top.   

If you take the view (which I do) that Singh more than any single person helped knock the Indian economy out of its zero growth stagnation trap into its high growth path, then that's over 1 billion people whose futures were transformed.

I think that giving Singh that credit is justified.  I'm just not sure that I'd consider 'India moving towards joining the world economy' than 'Britain transforming the globe through the adoption of financial instruments and the income tax.' 

[mongers]

For the love of God how many more days of this torture must I endure? : Day 6 of cold turkey.

[grumbler]

One theory that I read in the YouTube comments is that the pilots may have shut down the wrong engine.  Now that I learned more about the crash, I think that theory would explain pretty much everything. 

If they shut down the wrong engine, then they would be flying on one engine that must not have been giving a lot of thrust.  They would definitely not have much time to land the plane, and thus they would rush it.  And, if you're the kind of crew that would shut down the wrong engine, you're probably going to be the kind of crew that would not be best at landing the plane when you don't have time for all the checklists.  It would also explain why only one thrust reverser was deployed, and on the bad engine at that.

Haven't watched it, but it appears to be a wellish followed plane YouTube channel and you mentioned watching videos so I thought of you when it showed up.

An interesting point that they make is that the video we see of the bird strike on #2 (starboard) engine might be mirrored and it was actually a strike on #1 (poert) engine.  That would make everything else make a lot more sense.

[Zanza]

At least five dead, multiple life-threatening injuries, many mutilated hands. Thirty-six apartments in Berlin no longer habitable due to an explosion. Police, ambulances and firefighters attacked with explosives. Hundreds arrested for illegal explosives.

Maybe we need to rethink the concept of having fireworks for New Year's Eve...

[DGuller]

One theory that I read in the YouTube comments is that the pilots may have shut down the wrong engine.  Now that I learned more about the crash, I think that theory would explain pretty much everything. 

If they shut down the wrong engine, then they would be flying on one engine that must not have been giving a lot of thrust.  They would definitely not have much time to land the plane, and thus they would rush it.  And, if you're the kind of crew that would shut down the wrong engine, you're probably going to be the kind of crew that would not be best at landing the plane when you don't have time for all the checklists.  It would also explain why only one thrust reverser was deployed, and on the bad engine at that.

Haven't watched it, but it appears to be a wellish followed plane YouTube channel and you mentioned watching videos so I thought of you when it showed up.

An interesting point that they make is that the video we see of the bird strike on #2 (starboard) engine might be mirrored and it was actually a strike on #1 (poert) engine.  That would make everything else make a lot more sense.

I don't think it would.  The theory that the plane was flying on one damaged engine makes everything else make sense.  The theory that the plane was flying on one good engine doesn't, because having one good engine on 737 would not be an event that would force an immediate landing all checklists be damned, not even on full takeoff fuel.

[Maladict]

At least five dead, multiple life-threatening injuries, many mutilated hands. Thirty-six apartments in Berlin no longer habitable due to an explosion. Police, ambulances and firefighters attacked with explosives. Hundreds arrested for illegal explosives.

Maybe we need to rethink the concept of having fireworks for New Year's Eve...

Yeah same here, only three fewer fatalities. Interviews with crying surgeons on New Year's Day is just part of the tradition now.

[Syt]

At least five dead, multiple life-threatening injuries, many mutilated hands. Thirty-six apartments in Berlin no longer habitable due to an explosion. Police, ambulances and firefighters attacked with explosives. Hundreds arrested for illegal explosives.

Maybe we need to rethink the concept of having fireworks for New Year's Eve...

Firecrackers above a certain size (anything that has an age 16+ rating) have been banned in "populated" areas in Austria for a few years now (Wikipedia says 1974 ... can't say I've noticed). This includes the most popular type the "China Böller" of various sizes. They usually have only around 2-2.5g of black powder inside (which is less than when I was a kid), but they're constructed to maximize bang, so they're torn apart quite violently, which is bad if you hold them in your hands (a common injury is someone checking on a Böller that seems to be a dud).

Anyways, it would help if the police would enforce it more. That said, it's much better than 15 or so years ago when parts of Vienna sounded like a war zone from November through January. And of course it's still popular for people to hop across the border to less regulated neighbors to buy cheap fireworks. Though police also picked up a group of "importers" who had stashed 4.2 metric tons of non-certified fireworks in vans to sell for New Years. "Only" two serious injuries in Vienna - a 20 year old had a firecracker go off in his hand; a 14 year old had a rocket go off in his hand in face, he's lost a finger. Plus dozens of minor injuries, including a 9-year-old girl who had firecracker thrown in her face. Plus vandalized cigarette vending machines, trashcans, containers for collecting clothes for charity, mailboxes, etc.

[grumbler]

I don't think it would.  The theory that the plane was flying on one damaged engine makes everything else make sense.  The theory that the plane was flying on one good engine doesn't, because having one good engine on 737 would not be an event that would force an immediate landing all checklists be damned, not even on full takeoff fuel.

But then you would have to explain why the crew shut down the good engine.  If they shut down the damaged one and still had some sort of urgent emergency, that can be explained. 

[HVC]

I ended up watching the video and they also mention the possibility of smoke in the cockpit based on other incidents with engines of the same manufacturer (if not the same make) which would (could) explain the urgency to land.

[DGuller]

I don't think it would.  The theory that the plane was flying on one damaged engine makes everything else make sense.  The theory that the plane was flying on one good engine doesn't, because having one good engine on 737 would not be an event that would force an immediate landing all checklists be damned, not even on full takeoff fuel.

But then you would have to explain why the crew shut down the good engine.  If they shut down the damaged one and still had some sort of urgent emergency, that can be explained. 

Shutting down the wrong engine has happened multiple times before in history, so clearly it's a plausible enough error, especially when the crew is under stress.  Having an engine fail when you're at very low attitude must be more stressful than usual, because you don't have any altitude as a safety margin.

[grumbler]

Shutting down the wrong engine has happened multiple times before in history, so clearly it's a plausible enough error, especially when the crew is under stress.  Having an engine fail when you're at very low attitude must be more stressful than usual, because you don't have any altitude as a safety margin.

I'll need some evidence to support the contention that, multiple times, crew members have ignored the engine controls with the big red flashing light in favor of the ones without.

It's possible that that happened in the days before cockpit electronics, but I don't see it as reasonable in a case like this.

There are many other factors in this case that don't seem to be related to the loss of an engine.  Thick smoke in the cockpit might be one explanation.

[DGuller]

Shutting down the wrong engine has happened multiple times before in history, so clearly it's a plausible enough error, especially when the crew is under stress.  Having an engine fail when you're at very low attitude must be more stressful than usual, because you don't have any altitude as a safety margin.

I'll need some evidence to support the contention that, multiple times, crew members have ignored the engine controls with the big red flashing light in favor of the ones without.

It's possible that that happened in the days before cockpit electronics, but I don't see it as reasonable in a case like this.

There are many other factors in this case that don't seem to be related to the loss of an engine.  Thick smoke in the cockpit might be one explanation.

There are many examples, but I'll give you just the latest, because that one will surely have modern enough cockpit in the plane involved: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TransAsia_Airways_Flight_235.  The plane model involved came into service just 15 years ago.

At the bottom of the Wiki article, there are links to four other crashes due to wrong engine shutdown, although those are older ones and might have involved planes that give you less information.

[grumbler]

There are many examples, but I'll give you just the latest, because that one will surely have modern enough cockpit in the plane involved: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TransAsia_Airways_Flight_235.  The plane model involved came into service just 15 years ago.

At the bottom of the Wiki article, there are links to four other crashes due to wrong engine shutdown, although those are older ones and might have involved planes that give you less information.

I stand corrected.

[Tamas]

I was so happy to book a couple of family visits for Q1 this year. And now reading about the new pandemic brewing in China...

Sigh, there's just no break, is there.