The Off Topic Topic

[Zanza]

When I did Interrail in the early 2000s, we took a night train from Lisbon to San Sebastian. I think that was the only train to Spain out of Lisbon we could take back then.

[The Larch]

I took a train from Vigo to Porto some years ago and that was fine. But I remember that we tried to go from Huelva to Faro in the early 2000s and there was no train, just a bus. 

You visited my hometown and didn't tell me? 

[Josquius]

On the train travel time thing. This one let's you go smaller scale and adjust the time period - 5 hours seems a bit beyond convenient for me.

https://app.traveltime.com/search/0-lat=54.99119&0-lng=-1.53420&0-title=Wallsend%2C%20North%20Tyneside%2C%20Tyne%20and%20Wear%2C%20North%20East%20England%2C%20England%2C%20NE28%208QS%2C%20United%20Kingdom&0-tt=60

[Duque de Bragança]

When I did Interrail in the early 2000s, we took a night train from Lisbon to San Sebastian. I think that was the only train to Spain out of Lisbon we could take back then.

Sud-Expresso/South Express. In the old days, direct to Paris, now stops at the border so you can get the TGV.
The night train Lisbon-Madrid (Lusitania) was also another possibility, until they merged partially.

[Zanza]

I took a train from Vigo to Porto some years ago and that was fine. But I remember that we tried to go from Huelva to Faro in the early 2000s and there was no train, just a bus. 

You visited my hometown and didn't tell me? 

On the way from Santiago to Porto. We only returned our rental car and took the train. Didn't have time to stay. 

[Legbiter]

A major magma intrusion is causing a lot of fairly strong earthquakes (4-5 Richter scale) close to last years' eruption site. If it unfolds in the same way as last time we'll get a fresh eruption in the fall.

[mongers]

A major magma intrusion is causing a lot of fairly strong earthquakes (4-5 Richter scale) close to last years' eruption site. If it unfolds in the same way as last time we'll get a fresh eruption in the fall.

 

Flights/transport

[Legbiter]

Flights/transport

Ashfall will only be enough to disrupt flights in-country if it erupts undersea or literally close enough to Keflavik international airport for the actual lava itself to flow over the runways. Eyjafjallajökull was a freak occurrence, everything had to line up just right to cause the global disruption it did. Most likely if it erupts it'll be a smallish fissure eruption that lasts for a few months at most. The biggest hassle might be protecting critical infrastructure.

[crazy canuck]

When I did Interrail in the early 2000s, we took a night train from Lisbon to San Sebastian. I think that was the only train to Spain out of Lisbon we could take back then.

In 89 I went from the Algarve to Madrid by train.

When I did Interrail in the early 2000s, we took a night train from Lisbon to San Sebastian. I think that was the only train to Spain out of Lisbon we could take back then.

In 89 I mistimed things a bit and had to get from Sagres Portugal to Helsinki in time to meet some friends there for Midsummer - I made it, but just - it took me three days by train.

[Legbiter]

Things seem to be escalating fast here. Our geology folks are fairly certain there is a high chance of eruption in the next few hours or days.

[PDH]

More importantly, what do the Youtube comments say?

[Razgovory]

More importantly, what do the Youtube comments say?

It's a hoax!

[Josquius]

Things seem to be escalating fast here. Our geology folks are fairly certain there is a high chance of eruption in the next few hours or days.

Hope it can hold off a while. Coming in the already messy holiday season.... And less importantly for the global economy with me stranded abroad.

[Legbiter]

It's begun.

Good, now the earthquakes will finally stop. And it's fairly remote.

[Jacob]

Looks like there's going to be an election relatively soon in Denmark.

Danish politics have been characterized by "block politics" for decades - a competition between the left leaning red block of parties and the right wing blue block... but this may be changing.

Right now, the Social Democrats (traditional labour but somewhat "immigrant sceptic" now, 24.7% today vs 25.9% in the 2019 election) are in government, supported by the parties in red block. Governments can be coaltions - where there are ministers from multiple parties, or one-party where the block partners do not have ministers.

The likely election looks like it'll being triggered by the Radical Left party (socially liberal, fiscally centrist 5.8% today vs 8.5% at the election). Historically they've been a centrist party, making governments both right and left of centre but in the last years they've been at home in Red Block (mostly, I think, because they couldn't get on board with the strong anti-foreigner elements of the Blue Block). Anyways, currently there's a controversy over some covid-decisions (putting down all the minks in Danish mink-farms to prevent transmission, apparently done in an inappropriate way), which the Radical Left say illustrate that it's time for a new government that's not one-party.

The Danish People's Party (2.1%* today vs 8.9% at the election) - the ones who spearheaded the populist anti-foreigner stream in Danish politics is in massive trouble, with members of parliament (and municipal governments as well) leaving in larger numbers over what seems to primarily be personality and leadership issues.

(*you need at least 2.1% to get seats in parliament, so the party is genuinely at risk of losing all representation on a national level)

There are multiple new developments. Inger Støjberg was a minister in a previous government headed by the Left Party (leading party of Blue Block, "traditionally Liberal", rural-based right wing party). She was on the harsher end of "harsh on immigrants" in that party, and was found to have misused her power in ordering the separation of underage married asylum seekers. Her own party voted on suspending her parliamentary immunity, and she ended up getting 60 days in jail for the breah. She's done now, left her party, and started a new party - the Denmark Democrats (10.8% today) - which seems to be eating the Danish People Party's lunch (but be much less EU skeptical). This is also a threat to the Social Democrats trying to balance appealing to their rural (and more xenophobic) supporters with their urban supporters.

All in all, 17 parties will be running in the election with 11 of them set to get seats according to current polls.

Another ex-Left member who started his own party is the former leader and Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen. He's started the Moderates (3.1% today) with the explicit goal of rejecting block politics, and being willing to support a government to the left or to the right depending on negotiations (every bit of Danish legislation is negotiated and involves significant back and forth). Apparently, if an election came out to match current polls the Moderates would be in a Kingmaker position as Red Block would get 47.9% vs Blue Block's 47.8%.

The Parties, from largest to smallest percentage of likely votes are:

Social Democrats - traditional labour, leaders of Red Block.

Left Party - rural based rigth wing party, leaders of Blue Block. Traditionally the party of big farmers.

Conservatives - traditional right-wing party of the nobility and the well off, used to be leaders of Blue Block some decades ago. Probably what you'd call "small c- conservative" in the Anglo world.

Socialist People's Party - staunch socialists, was "revolutionary" back in the 60s

Denmark Democrats - new party by Inger Støjberg, doing well by aiming for rural demographic who dislike foreigners and the capital region and like "common sense."

The Unity List - collection of the various of former Communist and Socialist splinter parties to the left of the Socialist People's Party who got together some decades ago to get enough votes to pass the 2.1% barrier. Against market capitalism and generally EU skeptical.

Radical Left - socially liberal, fiscally centrist. Traditionally the party of small independent farmers, pro-education, and anti-militarist that split off from "the Left". Small independent farmers aren't a political force anymore, so mostly a party of urban intellectuals.

New Right - More or less recent split-off from the Conservatives party, going a little more radical. In favour of strict anti-immigration policies and against putting effort into integration, wants to leave the EU and against international conventions in general, wants to lower taxes.

Liberal Alliance - newer party, clasically liberal. Say they're for low taxes, freedom, lower bureaucracy, economic growth.

The Moderates - new party by former Prime Minister. Say they're looking for politics across the middle rather than catering to the far left and far right.

Danish People's Party - the original nationalist populist party. There's no cruelty to immigrants and non-ethnic-Danes they won't find sensible and logical. Anti-EU, pro-pensioner, anti-Muslim, in favour of waving the Danish flag even more so than most Danes, anti "urban elites". Peaked as Denmark's third largest party some years ago, but presently in the middle of a melt-down. As mentioned are currently polling at exactly the minimum vote percentage required to get sets.

Those are parties standing to gain 2.1% or more of votes, getting them seats in parliament. There are another six parties who look like they won't make it.

The Alternative - recentish splinter from the Radical Left. Left Liberal with a focus on the climate, economic, and social sustainability.

Christian Democrats - a more or less traditional Christian Democrat party, formed in 1970 as the Christian People's Party to argue against abortion and pornography. Has been in parliament, and even in government, but seems to be in steady decline.

Free Greens - Green/ Environmentalist party in favour of market-capitalist solutions to the climate crisis.

Vegan Party - Green/ Environmentalist party that thinks market-capitalism is terrible.

Citizen List/ Riskær Party - more or less personal vehicle for iconoclastic former Left politician Klaus Riskær-Pedersen (fraud convictions, prison sentences, entrepreneur adventures, wacky statements).

Hard Line - militant xenophobes, organized by the guy who went to Sweden to trigger riots. Fond of Quran burnings and the like.