Militarization of South China Sea & East China Sea. Six Wars Necessary

[dps]

I was being sarcastic.  This seems like a classic example of penny wise, pound foolish.  The more China tries to claim some coral reefs hundreds of miles out at sea, the more her neighbors align against her, bringing in the US.

Oh, sorry.  My sarcasm detector must be on the fritz.  And I wasn't being sarcastic--if the Chinese get what they want, they'll just want more.

[Berkut]

I was being sarcastic.  This seems like a classic example of penny wise, pound foolish.  The more China tries to claim some coral reefs hundreds of miles out at sea, the more her neighbors align against her, bringing in the US.

Oh, sorry.  My sarcasm detector must be on the fritz.  And I wasn't being sarcastic--if the Chinese get what they want, they'll just want more.

Indeed. This is the classic liberal error - assuming that other actors are motivated by the same things that we are - China doesn't care about how they are perceived in the Western sense of wanting to be seen as a fair or equitable actor that can be trusted.

This is right up there with Clintons "We will just hit the reset button!" idea vis-a-vis Russia.

They want to be feared. This may not be the best way to go about that, but it is foolish to think they are fools - they are not.

[jimmy olsen]

So what consequences will this ruling have in the end? The tribunal can't enforce it. China will ignore it and won't even lose face internally thanks to nationalist pride. Duterte's campaign was partially financed by China, so he will downplay the whole thing and keep it quiet.

Looks like China will just continue to build islands and militarize the shit out of the region.

The US navy will continue to sail through it, revealing it for the farce it is.

[Razgovory]

I was being sarcastic.  This seems like a classic example of penny wise, pound foolish.  The more China tries to claim some coral reefs hundreds of miles out at sea, the more her neighbors align against her, bringing in the US.

Oh, sorry.  My sarcasm detector must be on the fritz.  And I wasn't being sarcastic--if the Chinese get what they want, they'll just want more.

Indeed. This is the classic liberal error - assuming that other actors are motivated by the same things that we are - China doesn't care about how they are perceived in the Western sense of wanting to be seen as a fair or equitable actor that can be trusted.

This is right up there with Clintons "We will just hit the reset button!" idea vis-a-vis Russia.

They want to be feared. This may not be the best way to go about that, but it is foolish to think they are fools - they are not.

They want to be feared but they are also wary about being encircled, which is exactly what will happen if they keep up this silly bullshit.   We in the US can fight another cold war.  I don't think China can.

[viper37]

We in the US can fight another cold war.

Well, it was a big boost for Hollywood.
Jason Statham could play a British-american recon marine intent on getting his revenge from the Chinese Kung fu master that killed his best friend in a tournament.
Channing Tatum as a fighter pilot unable to cope with the stress of fighting a Chengdu J-20 over the South China Sea who ultimately finds his way and shoots the bastards down.

It worked against the Russians last time.  Merely 4 years after these weapons of mass cultural destruction were unleashed on the world, they collapsed.  Nowadays, since movies travel much faster, I'm expecting 50% more efficiency.

[Kleves]

Hollywood's too afraid of China to make any movie critical of the PRC.

[Valmy]

Hollywood's too afraid of China to make any movie critical of the PRC.

I was about to say Viper is insane if he thinks Hollywood is going to piss off its largest market like that

[jimmy olsen]

Hollywood's too afraid of China to make any movie critical of the PRC.

I was about to say Viper is insane if he thinks Hollywood is going to piss off its largest market like that

I wonder what would happen if we actually go to war with them and win. They just ignore it and don't make any movies about it?

[Valmy]

I wonder what would happen if we actually go to war with them and win. They just ignore it and don't make any movies about it?

There will be a tragic love story highlighting how both sides were really right and it was all just a big misunderstanding.

[viper37]

I wonder what would happen if we actually go to war with them and win. They just ignore it and don't make any movies about it?

There will be a tragic love story highlighting how both sides were really right and it was all just a big misunderstanding.

Two friends, caught on opposite side of the conflict, along with their family.  Could make a great mini-series

[grumbler]

I wonder what would happen if we actually go to war with them and win. They just ignore it and don't make any movies about it?

There will be a tragic love story highlighting how both sides were really right and it was all just a big misunderstanding.

So, basically, Pearl Harbor?

[Valmy]

So, basically, Pearl Harbor?

The Chinese would not have bombed that hospital in this movie. Instead they would have dropped medicine.

[CountDeMoney]

So, basically, Pearl Harbor?

The Chinese would not have bombed that hospital in this movie. Instead they would have dropped traditional Chinese medicine.

"What the fuck?  Is that a bag of eviscerated spleens from endangered sea turtles?  For headaches, herniated discs and better boners?"

[The Minsky Moment]

So what consequences will this ruling have in the end? The tribunal can't enforce it. China will ignore it and won't even lose face internally thanks to nationalist pride. Duterte's campaign was partially financed by China, so he will downplay the whole thing and keep it quiet.

Looks like China will just continue to build islands and militarize the shit out of the region.

The consequences are that China and the Philippines will do a deal, and the deal will be more favorable to the Philippines than it would have been without the ruling.

What is really at issue are the economic exploitation rights to the South China Sea.  It is inevitable that the PRC will be dominant because their consumers will generate most of the demand, and their producers and companies are the largest and most capable of development of all the countries in the SE Asia region.  What international law does, in conjunction with diplomacy, is provide some measure of counterweight when the PRC seeks to go beyond that and run absolutely roughshod over the rights of the smaller states.  And here it has succeeded.  The fact that it appears that Duerte intends to leverage the ruling to do a deal is WAD.  And the State Department official statement reflects that.

[The Minsky Moment]

This seems pretty simple to me.

1. China does not want a war, first and foremost. They are almost certainly unwilling to actually fight over any of this.
2. China does want to get absolutely as much as they can without getting into a war.
3. This means that China will keep pushing until such point that they think more pushing will result in shooting.

This is very basic aggressor behavior.

That's true, their approach on this has been overly aggressive and un-Dengist.  And has very much rebounded in their disadavantage not just in terms of the this ruling but the extraordinary US-Vietnam rapprochement and the possible return of the US Navy to the Philippines.

But context matters.  This isn't Taiwan where there is a fundamental conflict of interest.  From the US perspective, our maritime interests remain bound up in the principle of freedom of the seas.  The PRC accepts that principle - indeed it is even greater concern to them due to the extent their economy relies on the free flow of goods across international shipping lanes.  So there is a consistency of fundamental interest even if there is potential conflict on details - a situation similar that say of the US and Britain in Latin America in the late 19th century.  That doesn't mean bad behavior should be reinforced.  But it does mean the ultimate goal should be to reshape the behavior into constructive diplomatic bargaining, with the undertstanding of the reality that the PRC is a rising power that has a legitimate expectation of assuming a higher profile in the bordering sea regions (just as the US does in the Caribbean).