Militarization of South China Sea & East China Sea. Six Wars Necessary

[Valmy]

China's going to take those islands regardless.  Not worth risking a confrontation over.

Well yeah they invented those Islands.

It is all a bunch of posturing. Chill Cal despite what Timmay is leading you to believe there is not going to be anything of substance coming out of this farce.

[Berkut]

China's going to take those islands regardless.  Not worth risking a confrontation over.

Are you being serious?

[Ancient Demon]

Caliga doesn't seem to think international law is worth anything. I guess it's ok for anyone to claim vast swathes of open ocean and dot it with artificial islands to create new EEZs.

[grumbler]

China's going to take those islands regardless.  Not worth risking a confrontation over.

Are you being serious?

Of course he is serious.  Appeasement will bring Peace in Our Time.

[Berkut]

This seems pretty simple to me.

1. China does not want a war, first and foremost. They are almost certainly unwilling to actually fight over any of this.
2. China does want to get absolutely as much as they can without getting into a war.
3. This means that China will keep pushing until such point that they think more pushing will result in shooting.

This is very basic aggressor behavior.

[Ed Anger]

A huge mistake.  China should be allowed control of the South China Sea.

Another reason you shouldn't be a Kentucky Colonel.

[CountDeMoney]

Awww I wanted to hear what Vietnam and the Philippines thought of the ruling 

Doug Llewelyn will catch them out in the hallway before the commercial break.

[Malicious Intent]

So what consequences will this ruling have in the end? The tribunal can't enforce it. China will ignore it and won't even lose face internally thanks to nationalist pride. Duterte's campaign was partially financed by China, so he will downplay the whole thing and keep it quiet.

Looks like China will just continue to build islands and militarize the shit out of the region.

[LaCroix]

China's going to take those islands regardless.  Not worth risking a confrontation over.

let china have it, but pretend that we care so it doesn't scare southeast asia into thinking the US isn't on their side.

[Ancient Demon]

Nobody is suggesting the US start a war against China because of this, but there is an opportunity to make China pay a very heavy diplomatic and economic price for it's aggression. China may eventually get all the islands in the SCS, but let it be as costly to them as taking Crimea was for Russia, or even more so.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So what consequences will this ruling have in the end? The tribunal can't enforce it. China will ignore it and won't even lose face internally thanks to nationalist pride. Duterte's campaign was partially financed by China, so he will downplay the whole thing and keep it quiet.

that may not actually work. Nationalism you see. The Philippines may be a shithole but I doubt it's people will enjoy being chinese lapdogs. Trying to play it down may thus blow up in his face. And by combining nationalist and Duterte reasoning you may come to the conclusion that by playing it down (assuming he does) he's helping China stealing Philippine 'glory', making him a thief, making it okay to... well, you know

[Razgovory]

I don't see why China stops at these little islands.  Why not claim the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia as well?

[The Brain]

China's going to take those islands regardless.  Not worth risking a confrontation over.

No way. It's time to draw a line in the ocean.

[dps]

I don't see why China stops at these little islands.  Why not claim the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia as well?

I would assume that, in the highly unlikely case that they fulfill all of their current territorial ambitions, they will expand their claims.  But expanding their claims that much right now would be counterproductive.  Claim a few small islands?  Nearby countries like The Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc., might each individually decide that those islands aren't worth pissing China off over, and individually agree to abandon their own claims in favor of the Chinese.  But if the Chinese claimed those other countries in their entirety, I don't think any of them would be willing to just roll over and become Chinese provinces, plus it would give them a great deal of incentive to present a united front against China.

[Razgovory]

I was being sarcastic.  This seems like a classic example of penny wise, pound foolish.  The more China tries to claim some coral reefs hundreds of miles out at sea, the more her neighbors align against her, bringing in the US.