May 2015 UK General Election Campaign.

[Liep]

YouGov exit poll has the Tories on 284 and Lib Dems on 31, which looks closer to the pre-election polling.

YouGov ‏@YouGov minutes ago
YouGov has not done an exit poll. A re-contact survey today simply gave us no reason to change our final numbers from yesterday.

[Barrister]

If the first one's right the Tories could form a government with the DUP

[Agelastus]

That first result doesn't look brilliant for Labour; that improved majority in Houghton and Sunderland South doesn't look like much more than the "incumbency advantage" at work.

[Sheilbh]

Rumour is that Ed Balls will lose his seat.

First result as ever is Sunderland South. Labour won 55% (4% swing from Tories), UKIP in second on 22% with Tories on 18%. Then the Greens on 3%. Then the Lib Dems on 2% with under 800 votes

My inclination is Labour needs to be doing a lot better than a 4% swing in Sunderland to be doing well.

[Sheilbh]

Ten minutes in and, with no real news to report, the BBC are in Day Today territory:

[Monoriu]

Exit poll is in
Tories - 316 (+10)
Labour - 239 (-19)
SNP - 58 (+52)
Lib Dem - 10 (-47)
UKIP - 2 (+2)

From the 2010 figures

SNP would win all but one seat in Scotland.

2010 exit poll was considered unbelievable and was extremely accurate. No one's sure if this will be the same or go down with 1970 and 1992 as a polling debacle

Come on make it happen 

[Liep]

A floor tile election map? BBC, please.

[The Minsky Moment]

Housing policy has little to do with the economy and more to do with planning.

Housing is arguably the single most impactful sector of the economy.  The fact that UK is running 100K construction units below target is a big problem.

[Sheilbh]

Three results from Sunderland, a safe Labour area, so far. Labour are getting a swing of about 4-5%. The UKIP vote is up to second or third and they're getting a swing of about 18%.

The Lib Dems are behind the Greens every time and losing their deposit

Honestly that looks consistent with the exit poll

Edit: Also if that exit poll's right, God knows what the fuck they'll do with this (plinth/human plinth):

[Ed Anger]

Anything the screws with Geordies and that hairy ape Brand is fine with me.

[Admiral Yi]

Miliband's freakishly long right arm frightens me.

[Sheilbh]

Electoral Calculus projection - they were also pretty accurate last time. Whatever happens someone's got egg on their face:


Also, hopefully a running total:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/tomchivers/this-is-how-much-deposit-money-the-lib-dems-have-lost-so-far

[Sheilbh]

RUMOURS GEORGE GALLOWAY WILL LOSE HIS SEAT!

[Agelastus]

RUMOURS GEORGE GALLOWAY WILL LOSE HIS SEAT!

At last...

[Sheilbh]

Cannot wait for his angry concession speech, mostly blaming the Jews.