May 2015 UK General Election Campaign.

[Admiral Yi]

More than Spain, Ireland, or Iceland?  Don't think so.

More than the entire Eurozone, which was your comparitor.

[alfred russel]

The Tories didn't take over until 2010, which would be a better starting point. But I don't think post 2010 the financial sector has really been a drag.

[The Minsky Moment]

More than Spain, Ireland, or Iceland?  Don't think so.

More than the entire Eurozone, which was your comparitor.

This has been forgotten by many but the German banking sector took a big hit because the landesbanken were so weak - one of the biggest, WestLB, completely folded.

The UK banking sector did take an employment hit but I think it is a bit of a misunderstanding to view the crisis as concentrated in banking.  The crisis was really one of high private indebtedness levels - the banks got into trouble because they were in the middle when the music stopped or because in some cases they were badly overleveraged themselves.  And they were the mechanism that transmitted the macro impact of the crisis - freezing of the credit system - on all sectors.

If the Tories want to embrace the narrative that the banks were at the heart of the crisis they could raise that as a distinguishing factor.  But politically that could be a problem for them as they are just as complicit in the pre-crisis financial system as Labor.

[Gups]

But I'd been impressed by their management of the economy

This is what I don't get.
If you look at UK GDP/cap from 2008 - 2014, the UK did about as good as the aggregated Eurozone.  (that is GDP/cap by end of 2014 was still slightly lower than the 2008 level).  But the UK has an independent central bank that took vigorous action and the ECB didn't so really one should expect better performance from the UK.  If there was some masterful management by the Tories the numbers don't show it.  If anything -  as with the US.- given historically low public borrowing rates and existing infrastructure needs, a little more money could have been allocated there in the last couple years.  Also housing policy remains a disaster.

Unemployment has been kept low. There was a reversal of policy after 2011on infrastructure spending, which was the correct thing to do. Housing policy has little to do with the economy and more to do with planning.

[The Minsky Moment]

Unemployment has been kept low.

Passive voice.  "has been kept low". By whom and by how?
One could just as well say that unemployment has stayed low because productivity has plummeted.

[Admiral Yi]

Passive voice.  "has been kept low". By whom and by how?

By the Canadian.  He's the one who allowed real wages to fall.

[Liep]

Are there supervisors at all those ridiculously small and awesome polling stations?

[Grey Fox]

10pm poll closing time?

Vancouver people are weeping.

[Sheilbh]

Are there supervisors at all those ridiculously small and awesome polling stations?

Yeah. Normally two or three.

A friends polling station is the Kagyu Samye Dzongkha Tibetan Buddhist Meditation Centre. I'm jealous.

Typical IT problems means some people in Hackney and Dorset who were in time and received polling cards weren't actually registered. Also Darlington forgot to put UKIP onvthe ballot

[Sheilbh]

Exit poll is in
Tories - 316 (+10)
Labour - 239 (-19)
SNP - 58 (+52)
Lib Dem - 10 (-47)
UKIP - 2 (+2)

From the 2010 figures

SNP would win all but one seat in Scotland.

2010 exit poll was considered unbelievable and was extremely accurate. No one's sure if this will be the same or go down with 1970 and 1992 as a polling debacle

[Liep]

I found a Channel 4 stream. 7+ hours of election comedy? Can it be done? I'll probably turn it off soon.

[Sheilbh]

In Scotland Labs, Libs, Tories and Nats all think that exit poll is wrong.

YouGov exit poll has the Tories on 284 and Lib Dems on 31, which looks closer to the pre-election polling.

If the first one's right the Tories could form a government with the DUP

[Barrister]

Exit poll is in
Tories - 316 (+10)
Labour - 239 (-19)
SNP - 58 (+52)
Lib Dem - 10 (-47)
UKIP - 2 (+2)

From the 2010 figures

SNP would win all but one seat in Scotland.

2010 exit poll was considered unbelievable and was extremely accurate. No one's sure if this will be the same or go down with 1970 and 1992 as a polling debacle

Why is it so

[Sheilbh]

Why is it so

All the polls have roughly had Labour and Tories level-pegging. For the Tories to have achieved that they'd have needed a last minute swing beyond the margin of error in all previous polls (shy Tories? English nationalists?).

It'd be the first election since 1983 when the sitting government won more seats. And the collapse of the Lib Dems is astonishing.

Everyone expects the SNP to do well. But them winning 58 out of 59 seats would be astonishing.

YouGov exit poll in full:
CON 284 MPs
LAB 263
LIBS 31
SNP 48
UKIP 2

[Agelastus]

Exit poll is in
Tories - 316 (+10)
Labour - 239 (-19)
SNP - 58 (+52)
Lib Dem - 10 (-47)
UKIP - 2 (+2)

From the 2010 figures

SNP would win all but one seat in Scotland.

2010 exit poll was considered unbelievable and was extremely accurate. No one's sure if this will be the same or go down with 1970 and 1992 as a polling debacle

I find that exit poll impossible to believe, to be honest.