Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Liep]

White paint on red?! Outrageous.

[derspiess]

Now that dude I can see being a legit ethnic Russian separatist.  He probably has prior service in the old Soviet Army & either he or one of his buddies was waxing nostalgic with that CCCP painted emblem thingie.

[DGuller]

Now that dude I can see being a legit ethnic Russian separatist.  He probably has prior service in the old Soviet Army & either he or one of his buddies was waxing nostalgic with that CCCP painted emblem thingie.

Yeah, he doesn't quite strike me as a Russian conscript.

[Syt]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia.html

Putin Outlines 7-Point Plan for Ukraine Cease-Fire

KIEV, Ukraine — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia listed seven steps on Thursday that he said were necessary for a cease-fire in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Mr. Putin said he and the president of Ukraine, Petro O. Poroshenko, had a similar understanding about what was needed, and he urged Ukraine and the pro-Russian separatists in the east to reach a settlement at talks scheduled for Friday in Belarus.

The primary conditions on Mr. Putin's list are that the separatists halt all offensive operations and that Ukrainian troops move their artillery back out of range of cities and large towns in the rebel-held area.

Mr. Putin also called for Ukraine to cease airstrikes; the establishment of an international monitoring mission and humanitarian aid corridors; an "all for all" prisoner exchange; and "rebuilding brigades" to repair damaged roads, bridges, power lines and other infrastructure.
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His remarks came at a news conference during a state visit to Mongolia. After confirming that he had spoken with Mr. Poroshenko, Mr. Putin offhandedly mentioned that he had "sketched out" a peace plan during his flight from Moscow. An aide then handed Mr. Putin a notebook, from which he read the plan.

Mr. Putin offered his seven-point plan a day before the leaders of the NATO alliance, including President Obama, are scheduled to meet in Newport, Wales, with the crisis in Ukraine at the top of the agenda. The alliance was expected to announce at the meeting that it would create a new rapid reaction force for defending its members in Eastern Europe, along with other measures.

Mr. Putin said he expected Ukraine and the separatists to announce an agreement by Friday. The two-day NATO summit is scheduled to conclude that day.

Earlier on Thursday there was confusion about whether Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko had reached an agreement of their own. Mr. Poroshenko's office first issued and then retracted a statement saying that the two had agreed to a "lasting cease-fire." A spokesman for Mr. Poroshenko's office said the initial statement, posted on the presidential website, went too far in describing the results of a telephone call between the two leaders, and that the call had not produced a formal agreement. Following protocol, the spokesman did not give his name.

Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin's press secretary, said separately that Russia could not negotiate a cease-fire because it was not a party to the conflict, but that the opinions of the two presidents overlapped.

"Putin and Poroshenko did indeed discuss steps which could facilitate a cease-fire between the militias and the Ukrainian military," Mr. Peskov was quoted as saying by the news agency RIA Novosti. "Russia cannot physically agree on a cease-fire, as it is not a side in the conflict."

The West and Ukraine have accused Russia of providing arms and soldiers to support the separatists, an allegation that Mr. Putin has repeatedly denied.

Mr. Peskov said Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko had "continued discussion regarding the military and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine."

They discussed "what should be done primarily to stop the bloodshed" in southeastern Ukraine, Mr. Peskov said, suggesting that the two leaders had found common ground.

"The presidents' viewpoints on possible ways to overcome the grave and critical situation coincide to a considerable degree," Mr. Peskov said.

Vladislav Brig, the head of the political department for the rebels' Ministry of Defense in Donetsk, said in a telephone conversation that combat operations were continuing as usual.

"Nobody is holding negotiations about a cease-fire with the representatives of the Donetsk People's Republic," Mr. Brig said. "As long as there are Ukrainian soldiers on our territory, there will be no cease-fire."

He echoed Mr. Peskov's statements in saying that Russia could not negotiate for the rebels.

"The conversation was about measures for a cease-fire," Mr. Brig said. "Mr. Putin did not agree with Mr. Poroshenko about any cease-fire because Russia is not involved in this conflict."

Mr. Brig said the rebel leadership had not met to discuss the statement by Kiev.

Miroslav Rudenko, a member of the rebel Parliament, suggested that the cease-fire might be a trick, but also suggested an openness to negotiations.

"If the Ukrainian side will hold to their promises to cease fire, then we are prepared for a political side of the settlement," he told the Russian news agency Interfax.

President Obama, on a visit to Estonia on Thursday, suggested that the real test would be whether Moscow was willing to rein in the separatists and stop its military support for them.

"If, in fact, Russia is prepared to stop financing, arming, training, in many cases joining with Russian troops' activities in Ukraine and is serious about a political settlement, that is something we all hope for," Mr. Obama said at a televised news conference in Tallinn, the Estonian capital.

"We haven't seen a lot of follow-up on so-called announced cease-fires," Mr. Obama said after meeting with President Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia.

Mr. Obama's comments came as he began a day of private meetings with Baltic leaders and of public statements meant to reassure fretful allies — particularly those bordering Russia — that the United States and Europe were serious about defending them from a newly aggressive neighbor.

"There's an opportunity here — let's see if there's follow-up," Mr. Obama said. "No realistic political settlement can be achieved if effectively Russia says we are going to continue to send troops and arms and advisers."

Mr. Ilves said the Ukraine conflict and its wider impact on European security was "the question on everyone's mind."

"This is Russian aggression," Mr. Ilves said of Moscow's actions in eastern Ukraine. "Russia must admit that it is a party to the conflict and take genuine steps that will lead to a de-escalation of the conflict."

Mr. Obama's stop in Estonia came on the eve of a NATO summit meeting in Wales where members are expected to endorse a rapid-reaction force capable of deploying quickly to Eastern Europe, their strongest response yet to the situation in Ukraine. Over the weekend, Ukraine and NATO accused Russia of sending troops and armor over the border. European Union leaders then discussed a new round of sanctions against Russia, the fourth, that could be enacted within a week.

Russia has been escalating pressure on Ukraine, demanding that it grant some measure of autonomy to the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, where groups of armed militants have been demanding independence.

Until now, the administration in Kiev, the capital, has been reluctant to engage in such talks, arguing that the separatists are a Russian proxy force who do not represent the feelings of most of the people in the east.

But in recent days, the Ukrainian military has lost ground in the east. Ukraine has said the reverses were a result of the direct intervention of the Russian military. Russia denies sending men and arms across the border.

A shaky cease-fire reached in June between the government and the separatists collapsed after 10 days. Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko met in Minsk, Belarus, last week, but no results were announced from that meeting, and within days the separatists opened a new front along the coast of Ukraine.

[derspiess]

I'm thinking Ukraine should wait until all infrastructure & industry in Donbass is destroyed and then let them split away.

[Syt]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/nato-troops-to-take-part-in-military-exercises-in-ukraine-1409754651?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204190804580131663265158970.html

NATO Troops to Take Part in Military Exercises in Ukraine

WARSAW—Soldiers from the U.S. and some other North Atlantic Treaty Organization members will take part in military exercises in western Ukraine in mid-September despite the conflict with pro-Russia separatists in the country's east, Poland's defense ministry said Wednesday.

The Rapid Trident exercise will take place on Sept. 13-26 near Lviv and will include soldiers from Germany, the U.K., Spain, Poland and Norway.

Amid the conflict in Ukraine, NATO's eastern members, including Poland and the Baltic countries, have increased pressure on the alliance to increase its presence in the region.

In a move to assuage some of the region's concerns about its security and the NATO commitment, President Barack Obama was in Estonia on Wednesday ahead of the alliance's summit in Wales that starts on Thursday.

Both Poland and Estonia have asked for permanent military bases to be established in their countries.

Poland has since 2012 hosted a detachment with a handful of U.S. airmen, who coordinate regular military training, but has called for the U.S. to move thousands of soldiers permanently in the hope that their presence would deter Russia.

Some countries in the alliance have voiced their opposition to that for fear that it could provoke Moscow. The 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act says that NATO sees no reason for putting forces on the territory of new members.

The act has been cited by some officials in NATO countries as the obstacle to moving infrastructure to those former Soviet-bloc countries that joined NATO. For that reason, some of those countries see their membership of the bloc as incomplete.

Reassuring those members that Germany will come to their rescue if they are under attack, Chancellor Angela Merkel said this week that her administration wished to observe the NATO-Russia Founding Act.

Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, speaking at a press conference with Mr. Obama on Wednesday, said Russia has repeatedly violated the act and hence that the security situation has changed since 1997, when Boris Yeltsin was Russia's president.

"The NATO-Russia Founding Act has been violated by Russia. We continue to support the vision of that document, but its substance has changed dramatically, and I am confident that all of NATO's actions are and will be conducted in accordance with its international commitments as an alliance," he said.

[Barrister]

So there we go - another "frozen conflict", just like what Putin wanted.

Maybe it's the best Ukraine could hope for, now that Russia was mostly openly using it's heavy artillery and tanks, but still a sad day.

[grumbler]

Actually, yeah, Putin would want to distance himself from imagery like that.  While it's a decently effective domestic tool to wax nostalgic about the old Soviet Union days, if an actual return were to happen, the devil would be in the details.  Coming out smelling like roses in one regime change is tricky; two would be nigh impossible.

I have no idea what this post means.  Putin has stated openly that the fall of the USSR was the "greatest tragedy of the Twentieth Century."  He certainly doesn't distance himself from the memories and imagery of the USSR.

As far as "regime change" is concerned, I don't see why one would be needed in order to revert back to a socialist economy.  The existing regime could easily accommodate such a change; it has already centralized police, media, and infrastructure decision-making, so adding economics to the list isn't unthinkable.

[Syt]

RT reports that France won't be able to deliver the Mistral vessels that Russia had ordered. DETAILS TO FOLLOW.

[Razgovory]

Actually, yeah, Putin would want to distance himself from imagery like that.  While it's a decently effective domestic tool to wax nostalgic about the old Soviet Union days, if an actual return were to happen, the devil would be in the details.  Coming out smelling like roses in one regime change is tricky; two would be nigh impossible.

It's weird how them combine soviet imagery with the orthodox piety.  Soviet symbols are to the Russians as Confederate symbols are to Americans.

[celedhring]

Actually, yeah, Putin would want to distance himself from imagery like that.  While it's a decently effective domestic tool to wax nostalgic about the old Soviet Union days, if an actual return were to happen, the devil would be in the details.  Coming out smelling like roses in one regime change is tricky; two would be nigh impossible.

It's weird how them combine soviet imagery with the orthodox piety.  Soviet symbols are to the Russians as Confederate symbols are to Americans.

Nationalism has always been good at dealing with cognitive dissonance. I loved how somebody posted the other day a speech by Putin weaving a dolchstosslegende regarding how the 1917 Revolution made the Russians lose WWI, yet that same revolution ultimately created the regime whose power he wishes to regain.

[Syt]

Well, they are weird about them. Supposedly a separatist badge, combining Soviet and Tsarist flag. I think the only thing important for them about those insignia is that it conjures nostalgia about a strong Russia.

[Syt]

Blast from the past (2009), courtesy of EUOT:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/6480227/Russia-simulates-nuclear-attack-on-Poland.html

Russia 'simulates' nuclear attack on Poland

Russia has provoked outrage in Poland by simulating an air and sea attack on the country during military exercises.

The armed forces are said to have carried out "war games" in which nuclear missiles were fired and troops practised an amphibious landing on the country's coast.

Documents obtained by Wprost, one of Poland's leading news magazines, said the exercise was carried out in conjunction with soldiers from Belarus.

The manoeuvres are thought to have been held in September and involved about 13,000 Russian and Belarusian troops.

Poland, which has strained relations with both countries, was cast as the "potential aggressor".

The documents state the exercises, code-named "West", were officially classified as "defensive" but many of the operations appeared to have an offensive nature.

The Russian air force practised using weapons from its nuclear arsenal, while in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which neighbours Poland, Red Army forces stormed a "Polish" beach and attacked a gas pipeline.

The operation also involved the simulated suppression of an uprising by a national minority in Belarus – the country has a significant Polish population which has a strained relationship with authoritarian government of Belarus.

Karol Karski, an MP from Poland's Law and Justice, is to table parliamentary questions on Russia's war games and has protested to the European Commission.

His colleague, Marek Opiola MP, said: "It's an attempt to put us in our place. Don't forget all this happened on the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland."

Ordinary Poles were outraged by news of the exercise and demanded a firm response from the government.

One man, identified only as Ted, told Polskie Radio: "Russia has laid bare its real intentions with respect to Poland. Every Pole most now get of the off the fence and be counted as a patriot or a traitor."

Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, has tried to build a pragmatic relationship with the Kremlin despite widespread and vocal calls in Poland for him to cool ties with Moscow.

After spending 40 years under Soviet domination few in Poland trust Russia, and many Poles have become increasingly wary of a country they consider as possessing a neo-imperialistic agenda.

Bogdan Klich, Poland's defence minister, said: "It is a demonstration of strength. We are monitoring the exercises to see what has been planned.

Wladyslaw Stasiak, chief of President Lech Kaczynski's office, and a former head of Poland's National Security Council, added: "We didn't like the appearance of the exercises and the name harked back to the days of the Warsaw Pact."

The Russian troop exercises will come as an unwelcome sight to the states nestling on Russia's western border who have deep-rooted anxieties over any Russian show of strength.

With a resurgent Moscow now more willing to flex its muscles, Central and Eastern Europeans have warned of Russia adopting a neo-imperialistic attitude to an area of the world it still regards as its sphere of influence.

In July, the region's most famed and influential political figures, including Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel, wrote an open letter Barack Obama warning him that Russia "is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th-century agenda with 21st-century tactics and methods."

Moscow and Minsk have insisted that Operation West was to help "ensure the strategic stability in the East European region".

[Tamas]

RT reports that France won't be able to deliver the Mistral vessels that Russia had ordered. DETAILS TO FOLLOW.

lets hope it is true.

[frunk]

I'm really curious to what extent Snowden has played into all of these events.  The leaks, particularly those around Germany, seemed designed to split the western allies as much as possible.  It seems like Putin is pushing things much faster than would seem wise, particularly as far as raising the attention of the west, while the split is still fresh.