Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Caliga]

Poland is probably the new France.

Are folks in Poland worried about all this, Mart?

[Razgovory]

Merkel is citing the NATO-Russia Founding Act in opposing placing NATO troops in Eastern Europe:

http://www.dw.de/no-permanent-nato-troop-presence-in-eastern-europe-merkel-says/a-17897288


Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.

Yeah.  My sentiments exactly.

[DGuller]

Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.

So we're permitted to violate the agreement because someone else did?  That would just make us as bad as Russia.

[derspiess]

Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.

So we're permitted to violate the agreement because someone else did?  That would just make us as bad as Russia.

Eh no it doesn't.

[grumbler]

Problem is, Russia seems to have already violated that agreement.

So we're permitted to violate the agreement because someone else did?  That would just make us as bad as Russia.

Eh no it doesn't.

Whoosh

[Neil]

Georgia went, for the most part, under the public radar.

That's not even a little bit true.

[Ideologue]

Putin, I am sure, has no idea just how weak and incapable of meaningful response much of NATO has become...

The unfortunate hamstringer for NATO is its very strength:  the nuclear deterrent.  Unfortunately, having nothing of a credible conventional capability between "strong letter to follow" and "full attack conference" is that it allows for absolutely no graduated response in a crisis that leads to direct conflict.  There's no room built into the equation for time in developing a political resolution.

If the Russians try to march to Riga, our options are limited.  Which is why I said earlier in the thread, if he moves on NATO, that's the whole ballgame.  Hopefully the nuclear battlefield would be restricted to eastern Europe, but it is established doctrine that strikes on Russian soil would require in-turn retaliation.

If Putin believes that his actions would result in 1) nothing, or 2) a nuclear response, that's a high risk/high reward roll of the dice I believe he'd make.  Is Riga or Warsaw worth Paris, London or New York?

Serious question: in the early 2000s, we could have pretty handily won a nuclear war with Russia; is this still the case, or have they renovated their strategic forces so that they would at least continue to have a deterrent function in the face of a first strike?

[CountDeMoney]

Serious question: in the early 2000s, we could have pretty handily won a nuclear war with Russia; is this still the case, or have they renovated their strategic forces so that they would at least continue to have a deterrent function in the face of a first strike?

I believe that through the 90s and into the early 2000s, we actually helped finance the Russians to keep their arsenal secured and maintained and paid for their early decommissions, and they still maintain a shitload of their total arsenal at full readiness.  Even in the worse days of the post-Soviet era, they've always had a sizable number of nuclear forces ready to go.

Whether or not they're still pointing at the open ocean like they agreed on years ago, I don't know.

[Syt]

Whether or not they're still pointing at the open ocean like they agreed on years ago, I don't know.

[CountDeMoney]

Transparency, I has it.

[Martinus]

Poland is probably the new France.

Are folks in Poland worried about all this, Mart?

Yes, quite a lot. The consensus seems to be that Putin will not go that far. But I don't think anyone believes the NATO or the EU will help us if he does.

Personally, I'm planning to move if Russia invades any Baltic state and NATO, predictably, does not respond with a full military response. This will be a watershed moment.

[CountDeMoney]

I don't think you have anything to worry about, Marti.  I mean, if I were Polish, I wouldn't trust western Europe with my dry cleaning either, but NATO is NATO.

[Martinus]

I don't think you have anything to worry about, Marti.  I mean, if I were Polish, I wouldn't trust western Europe with my dry cleaning either, but NATO is NATO.

Well I guess we will see - if Russia invades a NATO state, wouldnt that be the first time NATO actually has to defend any member state's territory?

[CountDeMoney]

Yup.  The entire concept of the post-war collective security treaty model would be on the line.  There's no wiggle room, no goal-post moving of red lines, no outs.

[Razgovory]

I have the same worries as Mart.  That's why we need a military presence in the Baltic states.  There must be doubt in the mind of Putin or who ever comes after him. I don't have complete confidence in our allies and honestly I don't in the president if the Russians attempt to muddy the waters.  If we have troops there, we will be forced to fight.  Si vis Pacem Para bellum.