Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-26

[mongers]

Anyone know what name and vintage these maxim like HMGs are:

Ukrainian servicemen attend air defence drills in Chernihiv region Ukraine [File: Gleb Garanich/Reuters]

[grumbler]

Anyone know what name and vintage these maxim like HMGs are:

(snip)

Ukrainian servicemen attend air defence drills in Chernihiv region Ukraine [File: Gleb Garanich/Reuters]

That looks like a Soviet WW2-era Maxim machine gun, the PM M1910/30 (which was based on a Maxim gun).

Here's another view:

[The Minsky Moment]

I shall never forget the way
Russians botched the offensive that day
Whatever they do and whatever they try
In the 21st century the drones will fly
So we do not care that they have got
The Maxim gun and we have not

[Zoupa]

Seems there are localized counter offensives happening all over the Zaporizhzhya front. The sudden loss of Starlink seems to have taken the russians completely off guard.

They even managed several crossings of the Hachur river, which is seriously remarkable in 2026.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting very long read in the Guardian on the intelligence in the run-up to the invasion:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia

[DGuller]

Interesting very long read in the Guardian on the intelligence in the run-up to the invasion:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia

What an interesting, but also depressing, read.  I'm glad Zelensky rose to the occasion since those times, but this article completely confirms my contemporary read that he was disastrously incompetent in the runup to war.  A lot of Ukraine's military catastrophes throughout the war go back to failure to protect the south of Ukraine, and I can't help but think that having more than one day to prepare for the war could've shored it up.

[Tonitrus]

Yeah...I am not sure I found the arguments in the article of "mass panic" if Ukraine bought into the warnings to be very compelling ones...especially with the benefit of hindsight.

But at the same time, we shouldn't be proud of the "we're sorry bro, but you're gonna die" attitude we/the US had either.  It is not far better than the portrayed German/French "we refuse to believe it" take.

When we saw invasion seemed inevitable, I think we should have offered Ukraine the "how many troops/aircraft will you allow us to do "joint training/air defense exercises" in your country" approach.

[Bauer]

What I find disappointing in the early going of this war is how Ukraine only received trickles of what they needed.  At first if was anti tank weapons and some anti air only.  Then ok I guess you need some vehicles and tanks.  Then ok I guess maybe some missiles, etc.

How does gradually ramping up Ukraines ability to defend itself benefit anyone, it only helped create a prolonged stalemate with more soldiers dying.

[Tonitrus]

Yep, that was arguable the second failure after the first failure of actually trying to prevent the war.

If we accept that proactively trying to prevent an invasion was not viable, as soon it was clear that Ukraine was not going to fall inside a couple weeks, we should have flooded them with everything possible while Russia was still reeling from their initial failures.

[Sheilbh]

But at the same time, we shouldn't be proud of the "we're sorry bro, but you're gonna die" attitude we/the US had either.  It is not far better than the portrayed German/French "we refuse to believe it" take.

I think there is a bit of a difference. But I'd just add on this point that one of the French intelligence chiefs was fired for their intelligence failures which is a healthy bit of accountability we seem incapable of here.

[Tonitrus]

Your guys were on our side as "believers". 

I wasn't over there when the actual invasion kicked off, but I still was when Russia had the major exercise the spring/summer prior (where they pre-staged a lot of equipment).  I think my Brit colleagues (especially the older heads) took more seriously than even we did that shit was bound to happen at some point.

[Sheilbh]

Fair

I just meant more generally about the lack of consequences.

I've mentioned before but I think the Salisbury attack in 2018 transformed public opinion but also opinion within the British state about quite what Putin would/could do.

[Tonitrus]

Historically, I don't think we usually punish our intelligence folks in cases where the bad outcome happens to other people...those usually end up being "learning opportunities".

On that report's topic of us "believing what the Russians were telling us" about their military capabilities, I would argue it is more along the lines of "believing what the Russian military was telling the Russian leadership" about their capabilities.  They were just as fooled as we were. 

But the Russian military was mostly untested since 2008.  Pounding Islamists and innocent civilians in Syria doesn't count.  And the post-Maidan chaos in Ukraine/Donetsk didn't really either.