Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

I expect we'll see a couple of more turns of Trump gesturing at stabbing Putin in the back and offering hope to Ukraine, but ultimately he'll withdraw aid from Ukraine and pressure it to give up territories currently occupied by Russia.

Yeah. So I think this is where I agree and then diverge. I think that is what Trump would do as a deal - my view is I don't think Russia would accept it, because they've got ambitious war goals and they think they're winning. So from that I think Trump will try to pressure Russia into accepting that deal - and ultimately his only leverage there is Ukraine.

Totally agree on the wider European point - again I think the Poles and Macron have been doing some of the more advanced thinking (and, in the case of the Poles, spending) on this. But I'm not really sure how wide that European commitment is - Britain's absolutely in but not willing to spend, Germany tentatively in and not willing to spend etc.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I am: so incredibly scared. 

You say that now, but wait till Elon finds Languish.

Yeah.  When he pays BvS $14 billion for Languish just to shut i8t down, we will all be so screwed!

What a payday for whoever owns languish then, though. Is it BvS?

I do, but considering he still owes me severance that is orders of magnitude less than that, I don't think it will happen.

[Jacob]

Yeah. So I think this is where I agree and then diverge. I think that is what Trump would do as a deal - my view is I don't think Russia would accept it, because they've got ambitious war goals and they think they're winning. So from that I think Trump will try to pressure Russia into accepting that deal - and ultimately his only leverage there is Ukraine.

Totally agree on the wider European point - again I think the Poles and Macron have been doing some of the more advanced thinking (and, in the case of the Poles, spending) on this. But I'm not really sure how wide that European commitment is - Britain's absolutely in but not willing to spend, Germany tentatively in and not willing to spend etc.

You don't think Putin will accept essentially freezing the conflict to build up his attack forces, gambling on Ukraine being starved of support (i.e. Trump not sending support, European nations getting less focused due to internal disintegration and/or "it's not a war right now, it's over")?

[Sheilbh]

You don't think Putin will accept essentially freezing the conflict to build up his attack forces, gambling on Ukraine being starved of support (i.e. Trump not sending support, European nations getting less focused due to internal disintegration and/or "it's not a war right now, it's over")?

No I don't think so.

I could be totally wrong - but my read is that he thinks he's winning already. Western support is not stepping up sufficiently, Russia's economy is bad (but fossil fuel earnings from Europe are at a record high since the invasion), Russia's steadily advancing at a grinding cost. I think his calculation is that he'll get closer to his war aims (which are more maximalist than freezing the conflict now) by just carrying on than by trying to do a deal of some sort now.

That might shift - the economy is also a war economy with lots of problems in non-core sectors, they might need to go further on mobilisation and so far Putin has been very step-by-step on that. But as I say I think from his pov there's no reason to stop.

[Jacob]

In that case, the Ukrainian play might be to be amenable even to a stupid deal, counting on Putin to reject it and - hopefully - maximize American support as part of the pressure Trump will try to put on Putin.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - and I think that's what's happening (and I think Ukraine's been planning for it for a while and framing their willingness to talk - because other Western allies have been pushing for clarity on that).

[Barrister]

My expectation is that Trump's goal is to surrender Ukraine to Russia, and the "negotiation" is just part of the general charade.

So look - I don't think Trump cares one whit about Ukraine.  I don't think he even cares about their Rare Earth Minerals.

But I do think he knows that a Russian take over of Ukraine would look very bad for the USA and for him personally, and will take certain steps to make sure that doesn't happen.

Trump would be quite happy to just have a ceasefire and "freeze" the conflict - but Russia seems to have no interest in that.  As such, he's (I think) forced to begrudgingly continue to support Ukraine.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

nah, that paper with 'peace in our time' is more important to Trump. And the tech-siloviki don't give a shit who rules Ukraine. Both groups hate the EU.

So they'll sell out and cause maximum misery cause they know it'll destroy NATO and seriously weaken the EU, which is already quite impotent because it slowwalks defence and is filled with second and thirdrate spineless politicians without strategic vision (probably because they didn't play enough Victoria, EU and HOI)

[Jacob]

... maybe that's what the Greenland and Canada and Panama annexations are about? If he gives up on Ukraine it'll look bad. But if he hands Ukraine to Russia but adds Greenland, Canada, and the Panama canal to the US then he's still strong and tough and he won more than Russia won.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

... maybe that's what the Greenland and Canada and Panama annexations are about? If he gives up on Ukraine it'll look bad. But if he hands Ukraine to Russia but adds Greenland, Canada, and the Panama canal to the US then he's still strong and tough and he won more than Russia won.

yep, spheres of influence.

[frunk]

I think the most likely deal is cease fire at the current borders with the US withdrawing from NATO.  Putin will act like it's very generous to stop the conflict while never giving up on his maximalist claims.  After a brief or long pause (depending on conditions) the conflict will resume, likely to Russia's advantage.

[Jacob]

I think that's what Trump is after, yes. Sheilbh argues that Russia will not accept this. It also leaves Ukraine the decision of whether to continue fighting with whatever European support it can gather.

[Jacob]

Statement from France, Germany, Poland, Italy, and UK:
 

https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/3lhzazrhul22m

[DGuller]

My expectation is that Trump's goal is to surrender Ukraine to Russia, and the "negotiation" is just part of the general charade.

That's what I always suspected as well, and still do.

[Josquius]

I think the most likely deal is cease fire at the current borders with the US withdrawing from NATO.  Putin will act like it's very generous to stop the conflict while never giving up on his maximalist claims.  After a brief or long pause (depending on conditions) the conflict will resume, likely to Russia's advantage.

Key there will be the tariffs (wonder if that's where trump got his obsession?) .
A pause in fighting right now would be to Ukraines advantage. They could benefit a lot more from a chance to take a breather and rebuild.
Russias main weakness at the moment and where it is slowly being defeated is in its economic collapse.
If the world keeps to the sanctions on Russia, including the oil prices, peace with all those troops returning home expecting a reward could even be harmful.
I don't trust Trump on this though. He will undermine the sanctions and open the door for neutral and Russia leaning countries to ignore them.