Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tamas]

A quote from the interview, which makes it very clear why we should stop taking a Russian defeat for granted.  It's the kind of foolishness that leads to bad policy decisions by our political leaders.

Wait people still take a Russian defeat for granted? Really? I stopped believing that after about a year. There's no way Russia is losing this war.

At the start of the war we were all talking about how we need to find a soft exit for Putin; something he can swallow and walk away with some pride.

Now we need to start doing the same for Zelenskyy.

This is the nonsensical defeatism I was talking about. At the weakest stage of Ukraine since the very start of the war, the Russians take a few villages in, what now, 3 weeks? And people act like a tank corp is racing toward Kyiv.

[Barrister]

Wait people still take a Russian defeat for granted? Really? I stopped believing that after about a year. There's no way Russia is losing this war.

At the start of the war we were all talking about how we need to find a soft exit for Putin; something he can swallow and walk away with some pride.

Now we need to start doing the same for Zelenskyy.

I'm definitely not taking a Russian defeat for granted.  I might not even think it the most likely outcome.

But it is definitely possible.

Putin's own behaviour is what perhaps makes it more likely - he just won't accept defeat, keeps doubling down.  That tactic does perhaps increase the chance of an overall Russian "victory", but absolutely increases the chance of a total Russian collapse too.  We've already seen a hint of it in Prigozhin's mutiny last year.

A complete Ukrainian victory, including liberation of the Donbass and Crimea, together with the fall of Putin, is definitely a possible outcome.

[Zoupa]

Blinken may say whatever, but the DoD and SecDef clearly said they don't allow it. So the diplomatic language is all nice and well, but State is not the one giving clearance on fire missions.

I don't understand this statement. The US military isn't operating the weapons in Ukraine, why would their clearance matter?  American foreign policy is conducted by the Department of State. State also runs the US arms export control regime. Blinken is the last word, unless the President intervenes.

Not sure if serious...

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Wait people still take a Russian defeat for granted? Really? I stopped believing that after about a year. There's no way Russia is losing this war.

At the start of the war we were all talking about how we need to find a soft exit for Putin; something he can swallow and walk away with some pride.

Now we need to start doing the same for Zelenskyy.

I'm definitely not taking a Russian defeat for granted.  I might not even think it the most likely outcome.

But it is definitely possible.

Putin's own behaviour is what perhaps makes it more likely - he just won't accept defeat, keeps doubling down.  That tactic does perhaps increase the chance of an overall Russian "victory", but absolutely increases the chance of a total Russian collapse too.  We've already seen a hint of it in Prigozhin's mutiny last year.

A complete Ukrainian victory, including liberation of the Donbass and Crimea, together with the fall of Putin, is definitely a possible outcome.

true, but I don't think the western politicians have to balls to back Ukraine to that extent.
I'll be gladly proven wrong when the Ukrainians raise their flags over Sevastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk, but atm I don't see it happening.

[The Minsky Moment]

Not sure if serious...

I'm not personally acquainted with Anthony Blinken.  But I believe based on his public conduct that he is a serious person.

[Zoupa]

His recent bar performance in Kyiv would suggest otherwise.

[Grey Fox]

Still aiming our collective gun at the wrong target.

[Tonitrus]

Putin's own behaviour is what perhaps makes it more likely - he just won't accept defeat, keeps doubling down.  That tactic does perhaps increase the chance of an overall Russian "victory", but absolutely increases the chance of a total Russian collapse too.  We've already seen a hint of it in Prigozhin's mutiny last year.

Unfortunately, I think the idea of a Russian internal collapse is pretty well gone.

Prigozhin was a fairly unique flash in the pan that was handled very crudely, but effectively.  There will not be another Prigozhin.

Russia may suffer economically, but I don't think so desperately that it will spark revolution.  Czarist Russia-like conditions are very far off.

I think Russia can lose...but it would require maximum effort from a united West.  Because this war is likely to be one of who-outlasts-who...and Ukraine cannot outlast without full support...if the aim is to grind Russia down to exhaustion. Or even to outlast Putin's lifespan (without regard to all the theories on his health).  But even that is a gamble, as any Putin successor will be obligated to carry the baton onward if they are to remain credible.

[crazy canuck]

A quote from the interview, which makes it very clear why we should stop taking a Russian defeat for granted.  It's the kind of foolishness that leads to bad policy decisions by our political leaders.

Wait people still take a Russian defeat for granted? Really? I stopped believing that after about a year. There's no way Russia is losing this war.

At the start of the war we were all talking about how we need to find a soft exit for Putin; something he can swallow and walk away with some pride.

Now we need to start doing the same for Zelenskyy.

Read up a few pages and you will see the discussion about whether we should even suggest a Russian defeat was not certain.

[crazy canuck]

Putin's own behaviour is what perhaps makes it more likely - he just won't accept defeat, keeps doubling down.  That tactic does perhaps increase the chance of an overall Russian "victory", but absolutely increases the chance of a total Russian collapse too.  We've already seen a hint of it in Prigozhin's mutiny last year.

Unfortunately, I think the idea of a Russian internal collapse is pretty well gone.

Prigozhin was a fairly unique flash in the pan that was handled very crudely, but effectively.  There will not be another Prigozhin.

Russia may suffer economically, but I don't think so desperately that it will spark revolution.  Czarist Russia-like conditions are very far off.

I think Russia can lose...but it would require maximum effort from a united West.  Because this war is likely to be one of who-outlasts-who...and Ukraine cannot outlast without full support...if the aim is to grind Russia down to exhaustion. Or even to outlast Putin's lifespan (without regard to all the theories on his health).  But even that is a gamble, as any Putin successor will be obligated to carry the baton onward if they are to remain credible.

Agreed

[crazy canuck]

Still aiming our collective gun at the wrong target.

If we had a collective gun we would not have to discuss the fact the West has fallen short of using it's collective guns.

[Josephus]

Putin's own behaviour is what perhaps makes it more likely - he just won't accept defeat, keeps doubling down.  That tactic does perhaps increase the chance of an overall Russian "victory", but absolutely increases the chance of a total Russian collapse too.  We've already seen a hint of it in Prigozhin's mutiny last year.

Unfortunately, I think the idea of a Russian internal collapse is pretty well gone.

Prigozhin was a fairly unique flash in the pan that was handled very crudely, but effectively.  There will not be another Prigozhin.

Russia may suffer economically, but I don't think so desperately that it will spark revolution.  Czarist Russia-like conditions are very far off.

I think Russia can lose...but it would require maximum effort from a united West.  Because this war is likely to be one of who-outlasts-who...and Ukraine cannot outlast without full support...if the aim is to grind Russia down to exhaustion. Or even to outlast Putin's lifespan (without regard to all the theories on his health).  But even that is a gamble, as any Putin successor will be obligated to carry the baton onward if they are to remain credible.

100 per cent. Unless Ukraine gets 100 per cent commitment from the west, and not just some guns here and there, they're not going to win any war of attrition.
And economically, I've read that Russia's economy is actually growing again.

here

[Tamas]

The very fact that Putin's long-term ally, Shoigu, had to be replaced with a communist-era economy-manager guy proves that the Russian economy is NOT doing well, whatever numbers they are cooking up.

[frunk]

But even that is a gamble, as any Putin successor will be obligated to carry the baton onward if they are to remain credible.

Considering how much of Russia has become concentrated with Putin in control as the war has gone on, I think it's very difficult to predict what will happen once he dies.

[Tamas]

But even that is a gamble, as any Putin successor will be obligated to carry the baton onward if they are to remain credible.

Considering how much of Russia has become concentrated with Putin in control as the war has gone on, I think it's very difficult to predict what will happen once he dies.

It's a quasi-tsarist quasi-feudal system with a total lack of a heir apparent. They are guaranteed to have a period of chaos. I am not saying that's definitely good for the world, but it will happen.