Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Syt]

The Ghost of Tsushima hangs over Russian naval operations.

 

[Berkut]

That is a long damn time for some infantry to be sitting around on a ship.

I'm guessing they put the infantry on board later.

Oh yeah. I guess that would make sense... 

[celedhring]

Even if they carried the marines onboard, they have probably been on shore until now.

[The Minsky Moment]

Over a country the size of Ukraine this will require many soldiers. Each city that falls will require occupation forces--perhaps permanently. Scale wise given the size of the comparative economies and military forces, this is maybe four or five times "worse" for Russia than the interminable U.S. occupations of Iraq/Afghanistan combined, and because Putin arguably has even less room to back out than an elected American President, I don't really see how Russia gets out of this situation.

I agree with this assessment - effectively, the war is already lost.  The Russian army can level more cities and march troops across the ruins but they can't hold the whole country.

Again the only logical end game is an eventual pull-back to a crescent of territory running along the Black Sea coast  to an expanded eastern enclave.  But that is an objective that could have been achieved with less costly means while retaining some fig leaf of a propaganda narrative.

[Habbaku]

https://twitter.com/peterliakhov/status/1499341576518217730

Russian investment expert goes on the news and toasts to the death of the Russian stock market while an incredulous propaganda reader news caster watches in horror.

[The Minsky Moment]

My point is that China could do that much better than Russia. Because China  - unlike Russia - is not just a big gas station (or sweatshop in China's case), but a vibrant, fairly self-sufficient economy that makes most of what it needs itself, while at the same time being highly integrated in global supply chains, which allows China to inflict pain on its adversaries in a way Russia is not able.

I am not so sure about that . . .
China's economy remains highly reliant on exports so sanctions would do a ton of damage - the country does not generate any near the demand to absorb production.

China is far from self-sufficient in energy and imports nearly all its soybeans from the US and Brazil.  The ties with Russia with help with oil, gas, and grains, but if oil stopped flowing from the Middle East it would be problematic.  Note that China is vulnerable to naval blockade and interdiction so that even if ME producers are willing to supply in theory, in practice China may not be able to access that supply.

While China is obviously extremely important to global supply chains, in a war situation it may be easier to convince the public to accept the pain of delayed or pricier smart phone upgrades than higher gas and commodities prices.  There is also an industrial-labor lobby in the US and other Western countries that would be happy to take advantage of situation to push for reshoring of manufacturing.

[The Minsky Moment]

Incidentally, Putin's recent TV speech says the invasion is "proceeding as planned".

Standard military planning dictates placing and then halting masses of heavy vehicles on key roads to prevent the roads from running away.

[Sheilbh]

I've seen two reporters in Russia say they had a phone call from a Ukrainian number with this message: "Hi, I'm Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. My country has never attacked yours. I'm asking you to take your sons back."

Not sure how widespread but if two reporters got it, it must be fairly common. It seems like another fairly impressive bit of propaganda by the Ukrainians.

[Syt]

MOSCOW, March 3. /TASS/. Ukraine had been working on the creation of nuclear weapons for quite some time, and the United States was aware of that but posed no hindrances, the chief of Russia's intelligence service SVR, Sergey Naryshkin, said in a statement on Thursday.

"According to the Russian Defense Ministry Ukraine has retained the technological potential for making nuclear weapons. Its capabilities are far greater than Iran's or North Korea's. Moreover, according to some evidence the SVR has obtained Ukraine did conduct certain work in this direction," the statement reads.

Naryshkin stressed that both Russia and the United States knew about that.

"However, the US posed no obstructions to such plans. On the contrary, it was ready to 'lend a shoulder' to Ukraine, apparently hoping that Ukrainian missiles armed with nuclear warheads would be aimed eastwards, not westwards," he stressed.

The SVR director recalled that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky had told the Munich Security Conference Ukraine might reconsider its non-nuclear status.

"However, there followed no reaction from the leaders of the EU countries. The Europeans, usually so much worried about threats to their security, this time turned a deaf ear to Zelensky's warning. Apparently, they preferred not to take it seriously enough. How wrong they were! Those threats were not just empty talk or a spontaneous blunder by a politician a little bit carried away with an illusion of impunity.".

I'm looking forward to their lengthy presentation of evidence in front of the UN Security Council.

[The Brain]

Maybe Russian officials should just shut their mouths. They appear to have the IQ of one of the lower vegetables.

[Zanza]

Unlikely they will bother with a lengthy explanation.  They will just claim something else next week. Their goal is confusion so that nothing is considered the truth anymore.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's weird because Russia had been at the forefront of disinformation in the digital age but it feels like their own propaganda is stuck in the 80s in terms of sophistication.

[The Brain]

Probably no one dared tell Putin about the internet.

[Jacob]

It's weird because Russia had been at the forefront of disinformation in the digital age but it feels like their own propaganda is stuck in the 80s in terms of sophistication.

I think what Putin's Russia has been good at is identifying propaganda and social weaknesses in other actors, and leveraging those. Now that the landscape of internal weaknesses is changing, their playbooks look outdated. And being good at sowing chaos and doubt doesn't really help with positively spreading a message (or with military planning).

[crazy canuck]

It's weird because Russia had been at the forefront of disinformation in the digital age but it feels like their own propaganda is stuck in the 80s in terms of sophistication.

I think what Putin's Russia has been good at is identifying propaganda and social weaknesses in other actors, and leveraging those. Now that the landscape of internal weaknesses is changing, their playbooks look outdated. And being good at sowing chaos and doubt doesn't really help with positively spreading a message (or with military planning).

Has Tucker Carlson changed his tune or is he still spouting pro Russian gibberish?  My fear is that while all of us recognize this, I am not sure it is accepted across the political divide.