Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Valmy]

Not sure how reliable it is but wasn't there intel Russia planned to start riots and use civilians trying to flee Kiev in a panic as part of their strategy for taking it?

I saw a YouTube video today but a guy called bald and bankrupt I sometimes watch. British guy who seems quite off but who travels to interesting Eastern block places... And had to flee Kiev as a refugee.

It struck me how very covid this whole thing is. Not hollywood at all. No last chopper out of saigon. Its so very... Lazy. Resigned. Going through the motions.

'Life should be cinematic' - what an odd notion.

I mean, it's not like there haven't been lots of cinematic moments in this war. "Russian warship, fuck off", etc. There's lots of material for a major Hollywood production 20 years down the line.

If the Ukrainian military sold shirts saying that I would probably buy some 

Anyway I keep hoping to hear the the Russians are halting and negotiating a cease fire but it looks depressingly like they are doubling down on this wasteful and horrible war.

[KRonn]

The Russians are not very good at trying to look like the good guys.

Why would they? Would they gain more international support for their invasion and future annexation of Ukraine?  Would Ukrainians be more acceptive of their invasion?  Would it reduce the sanctions we inflict on them?

I don't think Putin really cares about that.  Many dead Georgians could attest to that.

Georgians, Chechens, probably others I'm not remembering right now. And Putin gets away with it! I hope this time is quite different as it seems to have a lot more attention and worldwide anger. Perhaps much more serious talk of war crimes which will be a deafening crescendo if Putin's forces go on a similar blood bath as in the past. And it seems they're starting to do just that.

[Jacob]

Fog of war, grains of salt, propaganda is part of the field of battle, and all that - but according to the Kyiv Independent, the Ukrainian Airforce - along with ground forces - is reporting to have destroyed a Russian convoy of up to 800 vehicles near Bashtanka in Southern Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498799589100605444?t=qluzlLFa0TVrJsrlGg3CCg&s=19

Hoping to see confirmations of this.

[jimmy olsen]

Confirmed equipment losses

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Russia - 423, of which: destroyed: 177, damaged: 8, abandoned: 107, captured: 131

Ukraine - 156, of which: destroyed: 56, damaged: 4, abandoned: 41, captured: 53

[viper37]

The Russians are not very good at trying to look like the good guys.

Why would they? Would they gain more international support for their invasion and future annexation of Ukraine?  Would Ukrainians be more acceptive of their invasion?  Would it reduce the sanctions we inflict on them?

I don't think Putin really cares about that.  Many dead Georgians could attest to that.

Georgians, Chechens, probably others I'm not remembering right now. And Putin gets away with it! I hope this time is quite different as it seems to have a lot more attention and worldwide anger. Perhaps much more serious talk of war crimes which will be a deafening crescendo if Putin's forces go on a similar blood bath as in the past. And it seems they're starting to do just that.

I still don't see Ukraine surviving without direct military intervention by western/NATO countries, as brave as they are.

[KRonn]

Fog of war, grains of salt, propaganda is part of the field of battle, and all that - but according to the Kyiv Independent, the Ukrainian Airforce - along with ground forces - is reporting to have destroyed a Russian convoy of up to 800 vehicles near Bashtanka in Southern Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498799589100605444?t=qluzlLFa0TVrJsrlGg3CCg&s=19

Hoping to see confirmations of this.

Yeah, lots of propaganda coming out on both sides. Russia doesn't have air superiority everywhere, but they have tougher anti-air assets in areas they control which restricts the Ukrainian air force from trying to do things like hit that miles long convoy in the north. That's according to an article I read today, that even though Russia doesn't have air superiority, it doesn't mean Ukraine's air force can operate very well.

[KRonn]

The Russians are not very good at trying to look like the good guys.

Why would they? Would they gain more international support for their invasion and future annexation of Ukraine?  Would Ukrainians be more acceptive of their invasion?  Would it reduce the sanctions we inflict on them?

I don't think Putin really cares about that.  Many dead Georgians could attest to that.

Georgians, Chechens, probably others I'm not remembering right now. And Putin gets away with it! I hope this time is quite different as it seems to have a lot more attention and worldwide anger. Perhaps much more serious talk of war crimes which will be a deafening crescendo if Putin's forces go on a similar blood bath as in the past. And it seems they're starting to do just that.

I still don't see Ukraine surviving without direct military intervention by western/NATO countries, as brave as they are.

Me neither.   I guess unless it gets too nasty, too much publicity on civilians being hit for example, and the Russian military or other top government officials convince/force Putin to call it off. A long shot but I have think that many top Russian officials and military officers are not happy about this and the effect it's having. Much more severe than with Putin's previous campaigns, or so it seems.

[jimmy olsen]

This has to be the Russian army's worst week since 1945
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498797330593722379

U.S. and European officials estimate that Russia has lost about 2,000 service members so far, according to the New York Times

[KRonn]

I've seen many reports of Russian soldiers not having any idea they were to invade Ukraine. They were just doing training. But given the activity, numbers of troops on the border and the saber rattling, it's surprising if accurate. It does seem that maybe the Russian forces didn't have clear plans on how to invade, more like Putin's forces expected to be greeted with open arms while just driving in. Seen reports of Russian soldiers thinking that and being quite surprised!

[Razgovory]

I also feel sorry for the Russian soldiers who are forced to fight a war they were not prepared for.  Conscripts thrown into the meat grinder are victims too.

[Valmy]

I also feel sorry for the Russian soldiers who are forced to fight a war they were not prepared for.  Conscripts thrown into the meat grinder are victims too.

Hell I felt bad for all the poor bastards who signed up for the National Guard and then got sent to Iraq for a year. These conscripts are many times more screwed.

[mongers]

I also feel sorry for the Russian soldiers who are forced to fight a war they were not prepared for.  Conscripts thrown into the meat grinder are victims too.

Yes and we've seen a lot of instances of Russian soldiers not being ready to shot Ukrainian civilians who confront them.
I think the West should establish a vital 2nd front in undermining the linkage between the Russians solders/military and Putin's regime.
Everything needs to be done to encourage Russian empathy with their Ukrainian neighbours, at this state in the crisis it's only the dissatisfaction of the Russian military that will topple Putin, which should now be the West's end goal.

However once Russian units get fully into urban combat against determined Ukrainian soldiers/militias, then compassion is going to evaporate and nearly everyone and everything will become a target in the brutal battle to survive.

[Zanza]

Some Russian stocks are traded as ADR at LSE. Sberbank dropped by 98%, Gazprom and Rosneft by like 50-60%.

Buy the dip?   

[Syt]

Meanwhile, ex-chancellor Schüssel is still on the board of Lukoil. His reasoning, last I heard, was that Lukoil wasn't a state controlled company, and so there's no reason to resign.

[Jacob]

Some Russian stocks are traded as ADR at LSE. Sberbank dropped by 98%, Gazprom and Rosneft by like 50-60%.

Buy the dip?   

Someone must be, I guess.

I guess the question is how quickly and severely the Russian economy implodes. I suppose they'll be okay with fuel for their military, unfortunately, no matter what.