Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

Very impressive.  I had never heard Luxembourgeois before.  Sounds like less grumpy German. 

Is it related to Dutch?

Related to Dutch yes, but German is closer, as it is a German dialect. But then German and Dutch are related. 

Sounded to me like a Dutch person speaking German with a French accent.

Edit: from his wiki page: "Crowther was born in Luxembourg to a British father and German mother. He learned Spanish and Portuguese in college, studying at King's College London where he graduated with Hispanic Studies."

[Syt]

Originally posted (by accident) in the what's wrong with media thread:

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1496115593149358081

[celedhring]

We can't allow a meme gap!

[Legbiter]

Bit underwhelming of the Russians to formally take over areas they already control.

[Tamas]

Apparently Putin has requested his Parliament to authorise using Russian forces abroad whatever that means, and there is already talk from them on "defending territorial integrity" of the two "republics". I think Sheilbh was right Putin wanted to wait and see the reaction, and after recovering from the shock of the massive hits delivered by the EU and the UK, he is moving ahead already.

[Sheilbh]

That's a bit of a backward thinking though isn't it. The threat of violence should make them submit then?

If we're not willing to fight and put the lives of our own people on the line - which I think is the right decision, we shouldn't do that - then I'm not sure it's right to supply weapons that are unlikely to result in "victory" or independence when we know it will likely result in the sort of crimes against civilians that we've seen in Syria and saw in Chechnya.

OTOH, Norway, Qatar and Algeria must really be happy now.

My understanding is the UK has quite a lot of gas that could be accessed through fracking if we so wished. Regrettably it would involve removing a tree that is up to 70 years old and threatening the alleged habitat of an endangered bat

We can always subsidize energy in the EU as we have a working economy. What's Russia's alternative? Becoming dependent on China as customer? After huge investments in New pipelines in that direction...

Yeah - and absolutely should invest massively in energy in the EU.

But I think they are trying to build more pipelines to China and I think that is exactly where they'll end up. It's still a striking indication of trust between them that they've moved so much of their Eastern forces to Ukraine. In terms of the day after impacts I think it's probably the start of Russia slowly but inevitbaly moving into a "Chinese sphere" as a bit of a dependant.

[Josquius]

But if Ukraine isn't a real country how can it be abroad?

[Sheilbh]

Originally posted (by accident) in the what's wrong with media thread:

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1496115593149358081

Although.... Doesn't that make Putin's argument for him?

[Tamas]

That's a bit of a backward thinking though isn't it. The threat of violence should make them submit then?

If we're not willing to fight and put the lives of our own people on the line - which I think is the right decision, we shouldn't do that - then I'm not sure it's right to supply weapons that are unlikely to result in "victory" or independence when we know it will likely result in the sort of crimes against civilians that we've seen in Syria and saw in Chechnya.

If they are willing to fight for what they believe is their national interest, what is the bigger crime? Giving them the means to fight, or refusing to help, deciding their  fate for them ourselves?

[Sheilbh]

If they are willing to fight for what they believe is their national interest, what is the bigger crime? Giving them the means to fight, or refusing to help, deciding their  fate for them ourselves?

But there's a difference between "they" who are willing to do the fighting and civilian residents of Kyiv who'd face a similar fate to residents of Grozny or Idlib. We know that and I'm not sure we should help build that fire in that scenario.

As I say I've no issue with vast amounts of support right now or for Ukraine to defend itself.

[The Brain]

If we let the Ukrainians fight unarmed we can get back to sucking that sweet Russian gas cock quicker. Funny how that works.

[Tamas]

If they are willing to fight for what they believe is their national interest, what is the bigger crime? Giving them the means to fight, or refusing to help, deciding their  fate for them ourselves?

But there's a difference between "they" who are willing to do the fighting and civilian residents of Kyiv who'd face a similar fate to residents of Grozny or Idlib. We know that and I'm not sure we should help build that fire in that scenario.

As I say I've no issue with vast amounts of support right now or for Ukraine to defend itself.

But why is it up to the UK/West to decide for Ukrainians whether being second class ethnic minority citizens in a brutal police state for 50+ years is preferred over a 5-10 years national resistance followed by independence? Especially when the national interests of Ukrainians and the West align - namely, in Ukrainians' armed resistance to Russia.

[The Brain]

The UK can volunteer to be annexed by Russia. Set an example like.

[Sheilbh]

But why is it up to the UK/West to decide for Ukrainians whether being second class ethnic minority citizens in a brutal police state for 50+ years is preferred over a 5-10 years national resistance followed by independence? Especially when the national interests of Ukrainians and the West align - namely, in Ukrainians' armed resistance to Russia.

It's up to the UK or West to decide whether to arm partisans are not. And my point in part is I'm not sure there's much reason for thinking it would just be a 5-10 years of national resistance followed by independence (and if it is it'll be national resistance of the type we've seen in Syria).

My view roughly is - if we're in a war on the same side (i.e. WW2) = yes. If we think there's a reasonably good chance of success or limited reprisals against civilians = yes. If we're not fighting, we don't think there's a decent chance of success and we think there'll be significant reprisals against civilians = no.

[Jacob]

My view roughly is - if we're in a war on the same side (i.e. WW2) = yes. If we think there's a reasonably good chance of success or limited reprisals against civilians = yes. If we're not fighting, we don't think there's a decent chance of success and we think there'll be significant reprisals against civilians = no.

My thinking is "the worse the invasion is for Putin's Russia, the less likely he is to escalate further". Therefore, arm Ukraine and continue to do so.