Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Habbaku]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

Taiwan is much more tied into the world economy than Ukraine, however.

Really? Ukraine produces 100 million tonnes of grains a year, 75% of which is exported, much to the Middle East were it feeds 10s of millions.

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/twn

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr

[Berkut]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

Taiwan is much more tied into the world economy than Ukraine, however.

Really? Ukraine produces 100 million tonnes of grains a year, 75% of which is exported, much to the Middle East were it feeds 10s of millions.

The Ukraine's total exports are under $50 billion a year, most of it in raw materials.

Taiwan exports nearly $350 billion a year, most of which is high end electronics and telecommunication equipment.

Sometimes people matter more than money.

Also, if by the Middle East you mean Egypt and Turkey, then Ukraine sends about 4% of its exports to Egypt. 5% to Turkey. No more than 1-2% to any other ME country. Most of their exports go to Russia and Germany and other European countries, not the Middle East.

ME coutries and their share of Ukrainian exports:

Turkey: 5%
Egypt: 4%

No other ME country gets more than about 1% of Ukraines $50B in exports.

Europe, however, gets about 50% of the Ukraines exports (that is counting Russia). China gets about 8%.

So yeah....Ukraine is not going to disrupt the world economy even a fraction of what Taiwan would, and in much less immediately critical areas. Much, much less.


This is a pretty cool site, btw, if anyone is interested in this kind of data:


https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/twn

[Maximus]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

Taiwan is much more tied into the world economy than Ukraine, however.

Really? Ukraine produces 100 million tonnes of grains a year, 75% of which is exported, much to the Middle East were it feeds 10s of millions.

The Ukraine's total exports are under $50 billion a year, most of it in raw materials.

Taiwan exports nearly $350 billion a year, most of which is high end electronics and telecommunication equipment.

Sometimes people matter more than money.

If that were true we wouldn't be depending on economic arguments for whether to help Ukraine.

[Valmy]

Well it is rarely a people vs money thing entirely. Economic dips do kill people.

[DGuller]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

I suspect that Taiwan was always part of the plan, though it wouldn't surprise me if Xi were shrewd enough to use Vlad as a trial balloon, and keep his part of the plan conditional on the Western response.  It would explain the rather arbitrary timing of this Sudeten crisis in Ukraine, if it was based on the timing of Xi's plans on Taiwan.

[Zanza]

I'm most curious about the German response, but also the West in general.

Germany will just join EU sanctions, which will not be as harsh as some hawks might want - and not just due to Germany. Germany will also not start Nordstream 2 (for now) but also not export weapons to Ukraine. German foreign policy is fairly predictable, not sure where your curiosity comes from. Gas is important,but it's not the end of all considerations.

[Sheilbh]

So if they attack we're looking at:

However massive sanctions the EU and US are ready to actually apply, including not opening Nordstream - and with possible impacts on natural gas to the EU either from Russian responses or from "simple" transportation issues.

However much you believe Russia has or does not have the ability to influence internal instability in Western countries, I expect they'll dial it up as much as possible.

The other tracks within Europe, I think, are reassuring eastern European allies. I think NATO still matters and is a deterrent, but we need to ensure that the Baltics, Poland and Romania feel that way - also obviously Sweden and Finland though at less direct risk.

And preparing for a refugee crisis - if it's a full scale attack. I think estimates are up to 5 million displaced people. I imagine the main impact would be Poland initially. But if it's a full invasion there will be refugees.

I think the US and Japanese government did a deal so Japan is re-routing their long term LNG supplies to Europe if necessary.

We'll find out how stiff Ukranian resistance actually is.

And we'll see how much Western powers are willing to support Ukraine to harden their resolve.

Yeah I think these are key. I think Ukraine now is not the Ukraine of 2014 - but I don't know and they may be facing a far more serious attack (with a more far-reaching purpose).

So yeah....Ukraine is not going to disrupt the world economy even a fraction of what Taiwan would, and in much less immediately critical areas. Much, much less.

Although - Uraine is a big agrcultural producer. It's certainly a top ten wheat producer and, because of other reasons, we already have food prices at their highest level in decades. Add in disruption to a top ten agricultural producer and I think that could have a huge impact - especially because food shortages/huge increases in the price of food are hugely destabilising in lots of the world where the main job of the state is providing subsidies. There's obviously been many revolutions over the years that are immediately preceded by a spike in food costs.

Ukraine on its own might not matter much to the world economy - in the context of incredibly high inflation in food, the consequences of a war in Ukraine could be pretty dramatic and widespread which would effect the world economy far more than Ukraine itself.

[mongers]

So an attack within the next 48 hours?



At what point do I need to consider changing the thread title to 'War in Europe' ?

[Admiral Yi]

I still don't think they're going to invade.

Pretty surreal situation.

[mongers]

I still don't think they're going to invade.

Pretty surreal situation.

You said it Yi.

It's bloody weird to be even talking about the possibility (probability?)

[Jacob]

The food point - especially in context of rising inflation on basic staples - is a good one. It probably won't be the best time for countries with precarious stability to be relying on the global market to feed their populations.

I did a quick google (as in, I didn't really vet the source) and found this map which purports to show USDA data on net food importers and exporters (2017). With a global market place, of course, populations in food exporting countries may well feel some of the same pressure, but I expect it'd be less.

As an aside, I couldn't (quickly) find a more precise indication of how bit a proportion of China's food is imported, but it seems China is the world's 6th largest importer of feed (another quick google). Maybe a bunch of those are high value status items, but even so if China does start a big mess over Taiwan they better hope the population is okay with more expensive food, that Russia has enough to export, and that China can maintain a good relationship with (and open sea-lanes to) South America.

I do wonder if there is any good publicly available data on food self-sufficiency where "keep the population from starving" is separated out from "provide the population with desirable foreign foods"?

[Jacob]

I still don't think they're going to invade.

Pretty surreal situation.

Yeah, I'm going to disbelieve it for until at least a little while after it's an actual fact. It'll be a bit of "I can't believe they actually did it" if they do for sure.

[HVC]

So an attack within the next 48 hours?



At what point do I need to consider changing the thread title to 'War in Europe' ?

No.  If it happens the west will huff and puff, send arms and words of support and then let it be. Sanctions will happen but I don't know how effective they'll be. Russia already has a relatively small economy and non resource trade with the west is pretty minimal. And the west will still need gas's so that won't change. 

[Syt]

One commenter mentioned that unlike Crimea 2014 there seems to be little in Russian domestic media to prepare the population for conflict (though that was a few weeks ago). But of course Putin could be pursuing a different approach this time.

[The Larch]

Something concerning regarding the US intelligence brief is that it describes the potential military action in rather stark terms. We're not talking about special forces doing surgical operations, little green men or the Donetsk & Lugansk folks misteriously finding massive Russian arms caches in the middle of the forest. They're talking about all out, old school war. Aerial bombings, missile attacks and full invasion. That is terrifying if true. I really hope it's overblown, otherwise it'll be human drama on a level unseen since the Balkan Wars.