Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

So this isn't a particular point about Russia-Ukraine - but I thought this article was interesting. I don't have much of an issue with Macron's visit (though I think his comms still have issues), but one of the values of those types of trips is for leaders to try and assess each other's state of mind.

I was struck by this article with Macron finding Putin tougher and different from in 2019 - and it made me wonder about covid more generally. We all know the way that covid impacted our lives and those of people we know - for some there have been mental health or other challenges from isolation. I wonder if there might be a political side to that to. Politicians/leaders of almost all states are normally out and about - they're either doing lots of trips and meetings in their own countries, or they're on the summit/meeting circuit internationally. That will have largely stopped for the last couple of years and instead most leaders will have been primarily working with their own teams/leadership elite. The meeting other people and especially meeting other leaders has been far less common - and I think politicians are generally, by nature, people who thrive on that to some degree or other.

It makes me wonder if there'll be a covid impact. Perhaps China's the most extreme because of its zero covid stance and Xi will have been working more or less only with the leadership and not doing any overseas travel. But I imagine it plays a role everywhere to some degree particularly as it's coincided with those politicians exercising almost unprecedented powers over the lives of citizens. I have no answer on this I just wonder if there's a psychological element in the world's leadership (as there is everywhere else in society post-isolation) and what that means

In Moscow, Macron found a different, tougher Putin
By Michel Rose

PARIS, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin spent much of his marathon talks with France's Emmanuel Macron this week on the Ukraine crisis reciting grievances that date back to the end of the Cold War, two sources in the French leader's entourage said.

In the first detailed read-out on Monday's meeting in Moscow from the French delegation, the sources said Macron had been struck by how different Putin was to the man he had met in his summer residence on the French Riviera three years ago.

"(Putin) gave him five hours of historical revisionism," said one of the two sources, describing how the Kremlin leader laid out his belief that the West had broken commitments to Russia since 1997 with the enlargement of NATO to include former Soviet bloc states.

"So he goes on for hours rewriting history from 1997 on. He drowns you in these long monologues. And the president (Macron) kept on going back to the issues of the day," said the source.

The French comments came as Russia, which has massed more than 100,000 troops near its borders with Ukraine, held military exercises in neighbouring Belarus and the Black Sea and Western leaders renewed their warnings of a major conflict.

"These more than five hours of talks make us realise how different the Putin of today was to the Putin of three years ago," said the source, who was briefed on the contents of the Macron-Putin talks and spoke on condition of anonymity.

A Kremlin spokesman did not respond to questions submitted by Reuters about the French assessment of Putin's state of mind.

'TOTAL DISREGARD'

Putin himself has spoken of growing frustration at what he calls Western failures to heed Russia's security concerns.

"You know, we have tried to talk to them about avoiding certain actions for 30 years now. What we get in response is total disregard for our concerns," the Russian leader said at a joint news conference with Macron on Monday.

Putin's own actions make clear he has become more hawkish, including his crackdown on domestic opponents, the pressure on independent journalists, and now the massive military deployment near Ukraine.

But the Macron meeting marked a rare opportunity for a Western leader to spend an extended period of time in Putin's company and to gauge, eyeball-to-eyeball, his state of mind.

For the duration of their talks, the French leader, was alone with Putin, with no aides and only one interpreter.

Macron had travelled to Russia to try to calm tensions between Russia and Western states over Ukraine. Washington has said the Kremlin is preparing for an invasion of its smaller neighbour, though Moscow denies such plans.

According to the first French source, Putin returned repeatedly during the talks to the issue of the 1997 NATO agreement that paved the way for three ex-Soviet bloc states - Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic - to join the alliance.

Putin, the sources said, described the agreement as a betrayal of earlier promises from the alliance not to expand. NATO members deny any such promises were ever made.

Putin also dwelled on the 2014 Maidan Revolution - which saw the flight of a pro-Russian leader amid mass street protests - and on the 2019 election of Volodymyr Zelenskiy as Ukraine's president.

"He says it was a coup and that Zelenskiy is controlled by the United States," the first source said.

The election of Zelenskiy, who replaced a similarly Western-leaning president, was described by monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as fair and held with respect for fundamental freedoms.

After Monday's talks, Macron told his team that when he had hosted Putin in France in 2019, the Kremlin leader had seemed "less tough and less focused on history" than this time round, according to a second source.

It was not immediately clear what this evolution in Putin's state of mind might spell for Ukraine.

Macron told reporters as he flew out of Moscow he believed there was a real prospect for stopping escalation, though he said it was too early to point to any concrete undertakings from Russia to step back, and there were still real risks that armed conflict could break out.

Additional reporting by Tom Balmforth and Andrew Osborn; Editing by Gareth Jones

[Sheilbh]

Concerning reports that the US believes Putin has decided for military action and communicated that to the military. Separately Blinken has said an attack could come at any moment including during the Olympics.

The FCDO has just issued a travel advisory against travel to Ukraine and for British citizens to leave now.

Edit: EU also evacuating all non-essential staff.

Edit: If this is right, makes me slightly re-read Shoigu's comment in his press conference with Wallace today: "Unfortunately, the level of our cooperation [with the west] is close to zero and is about to cross the zero meridian and reach the negatives."

Apparently US telling citizens to get out in next 24-48 hours.

[Habbaku]

It's been nice knowing you all.

[Iormlund]

I've been wondering for a while if age and especially Covid might have had an effect on Putin's mental health. I can't really see an upside for his strategy.

[Jacob]

So if they attack we're looking at:

However massive sanctions the EU and US are ready to actually apply, including not opening Nordstream - and with possible impacts on natural gas to the EU either from Russian responses or from "simple" transportation issues.

However much you believe Russia has or does not have the ability to influence internal instability in Western countries, I expect they'll dial it up as much as possible.

It'll probably impact American domestic politics. I wonder how much that rabid right and GOP wiill align with Putin obviously vs just stab at Biden however they think damages him the most regardless of other implications vs actually pull together for national security reasons.

We'll find out how stiff Ukranian resistance actually is.

And we'll see how much Western powers are willing to support Ukraine to harden their resolve.

... those are the main questions in my mind.

[Iormlund]

I'm most curious about the German response, but also the West in general.

If we abandon Ukraine in order to avoid higher gas prices I could see Poland or the Baltics trying to get ahold of some nukes asap.

[Syt]

So if they attack we're looking at:

However massive sanctions the EU and US are ready to actually apply

It seems besides Hungary, Austria is also cautioning against harsh sanctions.

[The Brain]

It's not the Balkans this time.

[PJL]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

[Habbaku]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

Taiwan is much more tied into the world economy than Ukraine, however.

[mongers]

Given Putin's rather in aspic view of history and where we are on it's 'track' , I think he his version of Russia, might be about to be taught some real history, I can see an invasion of Ukraine turning into Putin's Vietnam.

There are some parallels, going into a country to support a 'side' that's not representative of the population (Catholic Diem / Russian seperatists ), entering with a clear opinion of their own military superiority vs the untrained 'ill-equipped' locals, which will quite possibly lead them into a quagmire* that lasts years.

Also what happens when a Russian offensive stalls or gets stuck on Kharov or Kiev and from a Western view we're faced with a humanitarian crisis worse than Sarajevo?


*quite possibly they'll get trapped like the Germans did in the pre/post winter melt.

[mongers]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

Taiwan is much more tied into the world economy than Ukraine, however.

Really? Ukraine produces 100 million tonnes of grains a year, 75% of which is exported, much to the Middle East were it feeds 10s of millions.

[The Brain]

ME countries won't fight for Ukraine.

[Berkut]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

Taiwan is much more tied into the world economy than Ukraine, however.

Really? Ukraine produces 100 million tonnes of grains a year, 75% of which is exported, much to the Middle East were it feeds 10s of millions.

The Ukraine's total exports are under $50 billion a year, most of it in raw materials.

Taiwan exports nearly $350 billion a year, most of which is high end electronics and telecommunication equipment.

[mongers]

I think the biggest fallout of this isn't going to be in Europe but in Asia. Depending on how the West responds to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, it could well embolden China in doing the same versus Taiwan (which is certainly less internationally recognised as a country than Ukraine).

Taiwan is much more tied into the world economy than Ukraine, however.

Really? Ukraine produces 100 million tonnes of grains a year, 75% of which is exported, much to the Middle East were it feeds 10s of millions.

The Ukraine's total exports are under $50 billion a year, most of it in raw materials.

Taiwan exports nearly $350 billion a year, most of which is high end electronics and telecommunication equipment.

Sometimes people matter more than money.