Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

Could be, indeed. The current crisis level seems like a bit of an overkill if its main purpose is to drive the Minsk agreements... but who knows at this point?

The situation may have taken a life of its own.

Yeah - that's the thing. 100,000 troops is a big move if all you get is Minsk. I'm not sure if that's enough to sell domestically for Putin.

Especially with all of the attention. I still think there may be something in talking about Russia's treaty and kicking it into the long grass so there's another forum for talks on overarching security architecture of Europe etc (Macron, at least, loves that sort of big thinking idea - so I'm sure he can be sold on it). Of course it's unlikely to result in anything but it lets junior ministers get bogged down on the detail and gives everyone a way out.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Yeah - that's the thing. 100,000 troops is a big move if all you get is Minsk. I'm not sure if that's enough to sell domestically for Putin.

Especially with all of the attention. I still think there may be something in talking about Russia's treaty and kicking it into the long grass so there's another forum for talks on overarching security architecture of Europe etc (Macron, at least, loves that sort of big thinking idea - so I'm sure he can be sold on it). Of course it's unlikely to result in anything but it lets junior ministers get bogged down on the detail and gives everyone a way out.

I can't comment on Macron — very interesting.

As for Putin's domestic audience, I don't know a single Russian who believes this invasion is "imminent." The majority of people seem to trust he knows what he's doing as part of a bigger "game." Ukraine isn't really on an average Russian person's mind most of the time — over the last decade, this has all become white noise. I'm part of a few WhatsApp groups with my fellow Russians, literally no one is discussing this crisis beyond sharing some memes.

[Tamas]

TBF the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand didn't make many public ripples either while in the background A-H fairly quickly decided this would be the time to defend themselves against Serbian aggression.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

TBF the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand didn't make many public ripples either while in the background A-H fairly quickly decided this would be the time to defend themselves against Serbian aggression.

"No one wanted the war. The war was unavoidable." (Barbara W. Tuchman in her book The Guns of August on World War One)

[Solmyr]

Ukrainians may not be Russians, but they're still Eastern Europeans, so that means that in their minds nothing is as it seems.  There has to be a Byzantine plot behind everything.

Those damn Byzantines really fucked up Eastern Europe, didn't they?

[Tamas]

Ukrainians may not be Russians, but they're still Eastern Europeans, so that means that in their minds nothing is as it seems.  There has to be a Byzantine plot behind everything.

Those damn Byzantines really fucked up Eastern Europe, didn't they?

I blame Turks and Mongols to be honest.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ukrainians may not be Russians, but they're still Eastern Europeans, so that means that in their minds nothing is as it seems.  There has to be a Byzantine plot behind everything.

the past few years have proven that things aren't much better in the West.
Wasn't a penchant for conspiracy theories linked to the feeling of the populace that they don't have any influence on government?

[crazy canuck]

I can see an American and British tripwire of troops being strung across the middle of Ukraine within 5-10 days of a conflict starting.

No chance. I think the dilemma is that once Russia "resolved" the Ukraine question to their satisfaction the only targets left are the Baltic States, and I have little doubt the same shit-stirring would then commence there. But that doesn't mean anyone wants to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. So I'd assume Plan A is to prevent Russia from starting shit with Ukraine, since they might succeed. Plan B I'd imagine is to turn it into a decades-long quagmire into them by supporting the defence and then if need be the insurrection. I don't think there is any point for direct involvement, and even less appetite for it.

Yeah, I don't think there is anyone the US or NATO is going to put troops into Ukraine at this point.

Canada deployed a small contingent of special forces troops just a couple of days ago.  It is not clear what their role is there.

[crazy canuck]

TBF the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand didn't make many public ripples either while in the background A-H fairly quickly decided this would be the time to defend themselves against Serbian aggression.

"No one wanted the war. The war was unavoidable." (Barbara W. Tuchman in her book The Guns of August on World War One)

Listening to a discussion about this on the CBC this morning, the main threat seems to be miscalculation - and particularly on the part of Putin.

[crazy canuck]

Ukrainians may not be Russians, but they're still Eastern Europeans, so that means that in their minds nothing is as it seems.  There has to be a Byzantine plot behind everything.

the past few years have proven that things aren't much better in the West.
Wasn't a penchant for conspiracy theories linked to the feeling of the populace that they don't have any influence on government?

And storming the US capital buildings.  The Byzantines have much to answer for.

[viper37]

Canada deployed a small contingent of special forces troops just a couple of days ago.  It is not clear what their role is there.

It's an increase over the previous troops in the area and the country specifically.  They are there to train their military forces.

[Jacob]

Canada deployed a small contingent of special forces troops just a couple of days ago.  It is not clear what their role is there.

Officially I believe it's to prepare evacuation plans for diplomatic staff in case the conflict escalates.

[mongers]

It feels odd saying this, but Putin's Russia is likely to invade Ukraine and within the next week or so.

[Admiral Yi]

Just heard on BBC radio that Biden "thinks Russia will invade Ukraine."

[Tamas]

In a show of Western solidarity (NOT), Orban is planning to visit Putin on 1st February, allegedly to discuss the upcoming (severely delayed and insanely debilitatingly expensive) nuclear power plant, and the gas shipments. Probably it's time for him to receive updated orders directly from his handler before the war with Ukraine begins.