Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

I would be very surprised if this turns out to be a Ukrainian hit.

If it does turn out to be a Ukrainian hit my support would drop from 100 to 98.

The Amnesty International report didn't move my needle.

[DGuller]

Another reason I'm doubting Ukrainian involvement is that a car bomb is a method of assassination that's very likely to kill innocent bystanders.  So far Ukrainian operations have been very careful to avoid any civilian casualties, even when they're blowing up ammo dumps.

[Sheilbh]

I suppose the other possibility would be Ukrainian nationalists in Russia. I imagine pre-war and certainly pre-2014 there'd be plenty of Ukrainians living in Russia.

I've no idea what happened but it wouldn't be the first time that you have an imperial war coming home even without actual coordination.

[DGuller]

Car bomb doesn't seem like something a pissed off Ukrainian would pick up as a hobby.  It seems to require great organization to me.

[Razgovory]

I'll be fascinated to see how Ukraine recovers.
From a modern perspective with how seemingly fragile our economies are it's bizzare to consider how the world managed in ww2 and if not recovered at least got back to normal looking operation soon after.

Prediction: Large amounts of American aid will be stolen.

[Sheilbh]

Car bomb doesn't seem like something a pissed off Ukrainian would pick up as a hobby.  It seems to require great organization to me.

It's only the other possibility - it doesn't seem very likely.

Although while I've no idea, car bombs don't seem that sophisticated - they've been pretty common tools by terrorist groups in the past (IRA, FLN, OAS, ETA etc). Especially if the regime felt fairly secure and that Russia itself was very safe and utterly untouched by the war.

[Razgovory]

What is our position on this Dugin attempted assassination (and killing of his probably innocent of any serious crime daughter), assuming Ukraine is behind this it seems like straying from "reasonable" armed opposition into terrorism (which is a blurry line to begin with, I know.)

I'm very disappointed with whoever failed.

[Malthus]

What is our position on this Dugin attempted assassination (and killing of his probably innocent of any serious crime daughter), assuming Ukraine is behind this it seems like straying from "reasonable" armed opposition into terrorism (which is a blurry line to begin with, I know.)

Some sort of infighting among the Russians seems just as likely.

So far, Ukraine hasn't indulged itself in assassinations. If it was to start, why pick this guy? Plenty of more significant targets.

[Josquius]

Details are sketchy but apparently 2-3 suspected Russian operatives engaged in some sort of "chemical attack" on a military facility of Albania. I'm very confused about this as it makes almost no sense, so will have to see what news develops.

False flag false flag?

[Admiral Yi]

I vote oligarch/mafia turf war.

[viper37]

So far, Ukraine hasn't indulged itself in assassinations.

They drone striked generals on the battlefield, but not politicians/civilian supporters of Putin.  So yeah, I'm disinclined to believe this to be an Ukrainian opp, official or not.

The logistics of making and planting a car bomb isn't complicated, it's having the target that requires some form of organization.  ETA, IRA would have had cells following a specific target, identifying his itinerary so they could plant a bomb at the right spot.  Al-Queida, or ISIS would have simply picked a target to maximize the damages in a crowded area.  I doubt there would be such Ukrainian resistance cells active in Russia right now, totally autonomous from the government and acting in such a way.

A false flag operation by Russia... That just seems way too convenient, way too conspiracy-ish.  I don't know.  Maybe there's a turf war like Yi says.

[The Brain]

I don't think it's a Ukrainian job, for several reasons. And since I don't trust Russia as far as I can throw it this is unlikely to change regardless of whatever evidence the Russians might present.

[Josquius]

Reading about the car bomb I would agree it doesn't seem like Ukraines doing.
The target is a bit too connected for it to be a false flag too - unless he has fell out with Putin and is getting the blame for the Ukraine disaster?
My theory would be Russian dissidents. Its not about Ukraine winning the war or not for them. Its about Russia becoming a fascist dictatorship and wanting to push back (likely for a different flavour of shit?)

[Tamas]

Cannot it simply be a first sign of Putin losing his absolute grip on power and the dukes of his realm starting to fight out future succession?

[grumbler]

Of all the major figures having public orgasms over Russian fascism, Alexander Dugin seems like the softest target.  My leading guess is that the bomb was planted by a Russian dissident group and that Dugina was not the intended target.