Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I'll be fascinated to see how Ukraine recovers.
From a modern perspective with how seemingly fragile our economies are it's bizzare to consider how the world managed in ww2 and if not recovered at least got back to normal looking operation soon after.

[DGuller]

There is a rubber band effect when it comes to post-war recoveries.  Just because people couldn't do economic activity temporarily during the war doesn't mean that they forgot how to do it.  They may still struggle with the loss of capital investments, and all the other dislocations and disruptions, but that can be fixed a lot quicker than lack of human capital can be fixed.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. There is also an uncomfortable angle of war as a historical force that is part of state formation/consolidation etc.

I think that's already definitely part of this war because I think it would have gone differently in 2014. I think part of why Ukraine fights now is that since 2014 there's been a far more solid sense of Ukraine and national identity, including at the elite levels - so the divides that Russia played on through the 90s and 00s weren't there in the same way.

I think there's something similar happening in how the war is fought. A lot of the doubt that Ukraine could survive an invsaion was basically a doubt around their state capacity - it was too corrupt, too divided  etc. It's a state that's now fighting a war for survival.

This could be totally wrong but I think post-war Ukraine will look different than pre-war (and especially pre-2014) Ukraine. Of course the same forces could have an impact in Russia but I don't think there's much sign of that.

[Maladict]

If Ukraine at some point cobbles up enough strength for a major offensive, would they go for Crimea first?
It seems harder to defend for Russia than the Donbas, and harder for Ukraine to claw back through negotiation alone.

[Josquius]

If Ukraine at some point cobbles up enough strength for a major offensive, would they go for Crimea first?
It seems harder to defend for Russia than the Donbas, and harder for Ukraine to claw back through negotiation alone.

Harder to resupply for sure but quite a narrow front to defend.

[Sheilbh]

If Ukraine at some point cobbles up enough strength for a major offensive, would they go for Crimea first?
It seems harder to defend for Russia than the Donbas, and harder for Ukraine to claw back through negotiation alone.

I don't think so, but I think Crimea is key to supplying Russia's forces in the South.

[Malthus]

Well of Ukraine wasn't going to fight for Crimea there wasn't that much we could do directly. Would have been nice if we could have started switching off the Russian gas at that point though.

I wouldn't have expected the West to take military action. I would rather have expected them to treat Russia as a pariah state. Instead, they slapped some toothless sanctions on them and went right back to business as normal.

Hell, we still fail at treating Russia as a pariah state now.

I get that the hope was to give a carrot and a stick, hope that keeping Russia in the fold would allow us some influence over them, that they will see good behaviour is rewarded.

Problem is, the current Russian government just sees such carrots as weakness, compromise as cowardice, and both as an opportunity to take more for itself. A mistake I can see the West perhaps making again - hell, in this very thread, we see people arguing about how we have to give Putin carrots in order to end this thing. The implicit assumption is that Russia, like any rational nation, wants to end conflict and get back to peace.

There is no evidence Putin's Russia sees that as a desired goal. What they appear to want, to judge by their actions, is to put the Russian/Soviet empire back together again, by any means necessary. They simply lack the teeth to do it, but that won't stop them trying.

A carrot may buy you a truce - for a bit, allowing Russia to rearm, lull some victims, and try again. There will be no peace until Russia is so debilitated by war that it cannot threaten its neighbours, or Putin is dead and a new leader arises with different goals. Unfortunately, with the best will in the world, it is taking a lot of people a long time to understand that Russia is not like an ordinary nation and under its present government it cannot be deflected from its goals by the promise of peace with some face saving sops.

Europe allowing itself to become dependent on Russian gas was, with the benefit of hindsight, the height of stupidity. Crimea should have sounded the warning knell.

[Valmy]

I don't think you had to be some kind of prophet back in 2005 or so to know that relying on the friendship of Putin and Russia was a bad idea. I think that was clear to us back on languish at the time which is why we were so annoyed at Germany's Shroeder for being Russia's stooge.

It was always a bad idea and everybody knew it.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah it's predictable and predicted which is why every US administration (and many European allies) expressed concerns about increasing dependence on Russian gas since W was in office.

Also worth noting that in the case of Germany in particular the volume of imports and reliance on Russia actually increased after 2014.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Details are sketchy but apparently 2-3 suspected Russian operatives engaged in some sort of "chemical attack" on a military facility of Albania. I'm very confused about this as it makes almost no sense, so will have to see what news develops.

[The Larch]

Car bomb attack in Moscow against Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin. Apparently she's been confirmed to be dead.

[mongers]

Car bomb attack in Moscow against Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin. Apparently she's been confirmed to be dead.

There's a photo of him standing beside the bombed car, apparently he and she left the event in separate cars.

[jimmy olsen]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1560743445748076546

I have now verified the geolocation done by
@brt30495
 of this video that appears to show an ATACMS loaded HIMARS in Ukraine.

It is confirmed to be in Ukraine.

I cropped the video and will not be sharing the location for OPSEC purposes.

However, people in the comments are disagreeing and saying that it is actually the new PrSM system.

[OttoVonBismarck]

What is our position on this Dugin attempted assassination (and killing of his probably innocent of any serious crime daughter), assuming Ukraine is behind this it seems like straying from "reasonable" armed opposition into terrorism (which is a blurry line to begin with, I know.)

[DGuller]

What is our position on this Dugin attempted assassination (and killing of his probably innocent of any serious crime daughter), assuming Ukraine is behind this it seems like straying from "reasonable" armed opposition into terrorism (which is a blurry line to begin with, I know.)

His daughter was sanctioned herself for her own actions, so she probably wasn't so innocent.  I would also caution against assuming that any act on Russia's soil is indeed carried out by Ukraine, given Russia's habit of organizing false flag attacks, and especially given the heightened alarm about planned Russian false flag attacks recently.  Ukraine hasn't targeted Russian individuals before, and you'd think that they would pop their cherry on someone more important if they do decide to go there.