Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

My feeling is that Putin's support is more of the "yeah, whatever, as long as I don't have to die for this shit" variety.

Well, obviously.  But Russia doesn't need 20 million new recruits in the next year.  Dragging 50 000 of the poorer Russians wouldn't hurt him much.  Even if it has to go to 100 000, it still wouldn't hurt him much.

The material losses hurt more, but it all depends on what China can resupply Russia with.

I don't think Russia can conquer all/most of Ukraine, like I expected at first, but I think it can hold on the eastern part and the coast and is certainly able to create mayhem elsewhere even if they ultimately get beaten. 

It's not like they really seem to care about their own losses, so long as they destroy Ukrainian infrastructures and kill their civilians, it's all good for them.

[Jacob]

Yeah at this point, Russia's main goal is probably to inflict as much pain as possible to maintain their intimidation factor and self-respect. "Don't mess with Russia. We don't care how much we hurt ourselves, we're going to make you suffer... so why not just give us what we want?"

[Josephus]

The Ukraine is losing the war in the east, and once Russia captures the Donbas, I believe there will be pressure on Zelynskyy to make a deal. As was said, in previous posts, Ukraine cannot carry this on for much longer. Question is is Z. getting good advice from the USA, who may want the war to go as long as possible because of the financial cost to Russia.

[Barrister]

The Ukraine is losing the war in the east, and once Russia captures the Donbas, I believe there will be pressure on Zelynskyy to make a deal. As was said, in previous posts, Ukraine cannot carry this on for much longer. Question is is Z. getting good advice from the USA, who may want the war to go as long as possible because of the financial cost to Russia.

???

Remember the Americans were urging Zelenskyy to flee - the famous "I need ammunition, not a ride".

Lend-Lease is only just kicking in.  No reason to think Ukraine can't go on the offensive soon (and they are near Kherson already).

[Jacob]

No thing is a sure thing, and I'm feeling more apprehensive now than I did when Russia was just doing one clownish thing after another. But I reckon it is entirely premature for Ukraine to throw in the towel, unless there's something we don't know.

At the same time we should give them as much as we possibly can.

[Admiral Yi]

Question is is Z. getting good advice from the USA, who may want the war to go as long as possible because of the financial cost to Russia.

This comment triggered my American defensiveness.

[The Minsky Moment]

The Ukraine is losing the war in the east, and once Russia captures the Donbas, I believe there will be pressure on Zelynskyy to make a deal. As was said, in previous posts, Ukraine cannot carry this on for much longer. Question is is Z. getting good advice from the USA, who may want the war to go as long as possible because of the financial cost to Russia.

I don't think Zelensky is relying on the USA for that kind of advice and I don't think he is getting that advice. The US certainly has an interest in seeing Russia waste away its combat power and stores of equipment, but a lot of that damage has already been done.  And the USA also has an interest in a resolution to the conflict that stabilizes the world economy and allows the focus to return to Asia-Pacific.

The more significant tension is that between Zelensky who for his own domestic political reasons can't appear overly compromising to Russia, and European NATO nations who want to support him but are desperate to restore the energy markets back to sanity.

[Zoupa]

[The Minsky Moment]

The Ukraine is losing the war in the east

I see no concrete evidence in support of that proposition.  The Russians scraped together every scrap of combat power and supporting firepower they could muster, concentrated it on a narrow front for several months, and eked out a few miles of territory at unknown cost in men and material.  Ukranian forces avoided encirclement and appear to have retired in good order.  In the meantime, Ukraine chipped away at the weakened Russian positions in the more strategically important south and made incremental territorial gains of their own. 

Looks like stalemate to me.

EDIT: thanks Zoup for the more succinct visual representation of the point.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - there was a lot of reporting on the seriousness of the Russian advance in Luhansk. It may be significant. But it took several a couple of months of grinding urban fighting to take an area the size of Surrey.

And crucially as MM says - the Ukrainian forces appear to have managed to retreat successfully.

I've seen a lot of comments around the "fighting to the last Ukrainian" trope - especially from people who I think should know better like Gerard Araud - but the reality is there's no sign the Ukrainian desire to fight has reduced. If anything it is expanding. There are increasing reports of partisan activity in occupied parts of Ukraine which seems to be covering larger geographic areas. Given that, I think the job of the West is to provide the arms that are necessary - but this will mean the Ukrainian forces will need time to attack because they'll be moving from the equipment they know into looking more like a 21st century NATO armed force. We will need to help manufacturers expand production because it's clear that not only do we need to support Ukraine but having burned through our own training and reserve equipment we need to re-arm ourselves too.

[Admiral Yi]

Great map.

[Grey Fox]

Ukraine forces are very close to get the Crimean bridge into MLRS range.

[Tonitrus]

And we were worried about apocalyptic Iranian clerics having nukes... 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-war-crimes-moscow-399e2ab964f1ec10f1d7e7ff150f8766

...plus the usual platitude "the US did lots of bad things, so why are you mad that we are?"

MOSCOW (AP) — A top Kremlin official warned the U.S. Wednesday that it could face the "wrath of God" if it pursues efforts to help establish an international tribunal to investigate Russia's action in Ukraine, while the Russian lower house speaker urged Washington to remember that Alaska used to belong to Russia.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin, denounced the U.S. for what he described as its efforts to "spread chaos and destruction across the world for the sake of 'true democracy.'"

"The entire U.S. history since the times of subjugation of the native Indian population represents a series of bloody wars," Medvedev charged in a long diatribe on his Telegram channel, pointing out the U.S. nuclear bombing of Japan during World War II and the war in Vietnam. "Was anyone held responsible for those crimes? What tribunal condemned the sea of blood spilled by the U.S. there?"

[Jacob]

Well Russia's "wrath of god" has been pretty feeble so far.

They promised all kinds of hell for Finland and Sweden applying to NATO. It's been pretty light so far.

[Tonitrus]

Yeah, I think they are deathly afraid of any real/direct "intervention" from the West, and are hoping that over-the-top bluster will keep us out...the 'ol, "they won't do anything if they think we might actually be nutzo" routine.  Probably because aside from the nuclear factor, our airpower and other capabilities would beat the holy crap out of them.