Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[alfred russel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1542468576917028864

Russia published its statistics on the economy for May.

Lets compare May 2022 with May 2021.

Cars: -96.7%
Trucks: -39.3%
ICE motors: -57%
Pass. train wagons: -59.8%
Fiberglass cables: -80.8%
Fridges: -58.1%
Washing machines: -59.2%
AC electric motors: -49.9%
Excavators: -60%

Western sanctions seem to bite.

Did they give the numbers on items they might be substituting production into, like artillery shells and body bags?

[Sheilbh]

I think one of the reasons for the popularity of Johnson, Duda, the Baltic leaders etc in Ukraine is in large part driven by grasping the importance of the symbolic and the gesture in this moment. You need military supplies obviously, but in a war like this for national survival - big statements and gestures matter. Such as Duda's trip to Ukraine (with the Baltics leaders) which was the first for a foreign leader or Johnson doing a walkabout in Kyiv interacting with normal Ukrainians. I remember reading Macron's reluctance to go to Kyiv in April was that there was nothing practical to announce - which I think missed the point.

I think the EU and VDL especially aboslutely gets this and have been at the forefront in understanding and positioning Ukraine's struggle as European. But I've not seen any greater example of why gestures and symbols matter than the Rada installing the EU flag which is incredibly moving. I don't think a President of the Commission will ever have watched a ceremony like it - and it's just a flag being moved but it is so important:
https://twitter.com/MattiMaasikas/status/1542762739143254016?s=20&t=cZ2DhyOFSMgFwWpNO63uJQ

[The Minsky Moment]

Did they give the numbers on items they might be substituting production into, like artillery shells and body bags?

I don't think it's feasible to retool washing machine assembly factories en masse to produce artillery shells in the time scale of this invasion.

That said, I think we can assume that military related production has gone up considerably, as the total production in the manufacturing sector is down "only" 3.2%.

Can't get more detail as the English website of the federal statistics service wouldn't load.   
The Russian one seems to be accessible though: https://rosstat.gov.ru/

[The Minsky Moment]

But I've not seen any greater example of why gestures and symbols matter than the Rada installing the EU flag which is incredibly moving. I don't think a President of the Commission will ever have watched a ceremony like it - and it's just a flag being moved but it is so important:
https://twitter.com/MattiMaasikas/status/1542762739143254016?s=20&t=cZ2DhyOFSMgFwWpNO63uJQ

Outstanding.
However, I think the next tranche of Western aid should include some suits and ties for the deputies. 

[Josquius]

But I've not seen any greater example of why gestures and symbols matter than the Rada installing the EU flag which is incredibly moving. I don't think a President of the Commission will ever have watched a ceremony like it - and it's just a flag being moved but it is so important:
https://twitter.com/MattiMaasikas/status/1542762739143254016?s=20&t=cZ2DhyOFSMgFwWpNO63uJQ

Outstanding.
However, I think the next tranche of Western aid should include some suits and ties for the deputies. 

What needs to come out of this war in order of priority

1: Free Ukraine
2: Putin removed
3: The mandatory suit and tie uniform of politics sent the way of powdered wigs and frills.

[Josquius]

2 more Brits captured and to go on trial. One of whom isn't even a soldier but an aid worker.

They've really stopped even pretending to obey international law.

BBC News - Two more captured Britons charged by pro-Russian rebels, say reports
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62015954

[Crazy_Ivan80]

2 more Brits captured and to go on trial. One of whom isn't even a soldier but an aid worker.

They've really stopped even pretending to obey international law.

BBC News - Two more captured Britons charged by pro-Russian rebels, say reports
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62015954

It'll only result in a hardening of attitudes against the Russians, especially with those people still wavering. (I consider the 'Zupporters" across the political spectrum as lost anyway and in need of a good shaving. As the collabos they are)

[HVC]

Russian Olympic hockey goalie drafted intotnhe army for daring to leaving the Moscow team to go to the flyers.

[Jacob]

Russian Olympic hockey goalie drafted intotnhe army for daring to leaving the Moscow team to go to the flyers.

... but is he safely in the US, or did they grab him before he left the country?

[HVC]

They nabbed him in Russia, unless we're talking about another guy

https://nypost.com/2022/07/02/philadelphia-flyers-goalie-prospect-ivan-fedotov-detained-in-russia-for-alleged-military-evasion/

[Razgovory]

Lysychansk has fallen.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Lysychansk has fallen.

The ukrainians likely managed to get out though, so they can fight another day

[Jacob]

So what's that... close to 80 days to close a pocket the size of London, more or less, and less than half a percent of Ukrainian territory? Achieved by concentrating essentially all of the available might of the Russian Federation?

I suppose it's progress of a sort for Putin's Russia, but it's certainly significantly less than envisioned at the outset of this phase of the war.

Russia was smashed at Kyiv and in the North. Then they were going to take all of Donbas in a massive pincer, closing the pocket. The size of the pocket was greatly reduced several times and at this point it doesn't even represent the remainder of the Donbas. And it took them a couple of months while sustaining heavy losses.

Yes, I too would like to see Russian forces completely routed from Ukrainian territory and every inch lost to the invader is a real loss. But this does not seem like a great Russian victory to me.

It may be this shows irreversible Russian gains, but I don't think that's a sure thing at all.

[HVC]

Reports of a Ukrainian missile  strike on residential area of Belgorod.

[Josquius]

So what's that... close to 80 days to close a pocket the size of London, more or less, and less than half a percent of Ukrainian territory? Achieved by concentrating essentially all of the available might of the Russian Federation?

I suppose it's progress of a sort for Putin's Russia, but it's certainly significantly less than envisioned at the outset of this phase of the war.

Russia was smashed at Kyiv and in the North. Then they were going to take all of Donbas in a massive pincer, closing the pocket. The size of the pocket was greatly reduced several times and at this point it doesn't even represent the remainder of the Donbas. And it took them a couple of months while sustaining heavy losses.

Yes, I too would like to see Russian forces completely routed from Ukrainian territory and every inch lost to the invader is a real loss. But this does not seem like a great Russian victory to me.

It may be this shows irreversible Russian gains, but I don't think that's a sure thing at all.

In Russias favour however they've wiped out a lot of Ukraines best troops in doing this. Further fractions of a percent won't be so well defended.
The question is has Russia lost more of their top troops in the profess.