Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

I thought they were planning to send old mothballed GDR T64s and 72s.

[The Larch]

The New York Times had a big profile on Schroeder the other day, he does not come off well at all.

I read somewhere that it was a good thing that his entire staff resigned when the war started, because that way nobody was there to tell him not to do that NYT piece, showing him in such a bad light.

[jimmy olsen]

AFP reporting that Germany will authorize tank transfers to Ukraine. I suppose it's gonna be Leo 1's - how useful are those in this day and age?

We have 100 Leo2 in storage that we are never going to use. We should send them over (although they're probably not very well maintained).

They should still move well and hit hard enough to be useful. Armor like tinfoil, but most of the firefights between tanks I've seen have been laughable. The Russians either flee, scatter or freeze up like 90% of the time.

They'll have to worry about enemy helicopters and arty, but even good tanks have to worry about those.

[Threviel]

Leo 1's can be used to free up T-64s and T-72s. They can be used in fortifications in Odessa for example, in place of better tanks that can then be sent to the front. Leo 1 can still more or less kill anything the Russians have and from a prepared position the lack of armour is not as big a hindrance.

This has the advantage of not complicating logistics to the front.

[Sheilbh]

I read somewhere that it was a good thing that his entire staff resigned when the war started, because that way nobody was there to tell him not to do that NYT piece, showing him in such a bad light.

A bit of a shame it took a huge profile in the NYT and international attention to prod the SPD into doing this.

Personally I'm not totally clear why he's not sanctioned - in terms of all the worry about the influence of oligarchs on Western politics, Schroeder seems like a bigger, more influential figure in politics. He's still on the board of those Russian companies and I've not seen any sign he's adjusted his position.

AFP reporting that Germany will authorize tank transfers to Ukraine. I suppose it's gonna be Leo 1's - how useful are those in this day and age?

We have 100 Leo2 in storage that we are never going to use. We should send them over (although they're probably not very well maintained).

That's good.

I said it a while ago on sanctions, before Scholz's speech, but it seems like Germany's approach again: resist doing something for long enough to erode trust and cause other countries to notice, then u-turn and do it when it's so late and following international pressure so you won't get any credit.

It feels like the worst of all worlds and it keeps happening.

[jimmy olsen]

Leo 1's can be used to free up T-64s and T-72s. They can be used in fortifications in Odessa for example, in place of better tanks that can then be sent to the front. Leo 1 can still more or less kill anything the Russians have and from a prepared position the lack of armour is not as big a hindrance.

This has the advantage of not complicating logistics to the front.

Maybe. They've captured 214 tanks so far according to Oryx. That's enough to equip five battalions IIRC.

Captured Russian hardware is being deployed by the Ukrainian forces in bigger and bigger volumes - here we see a T-72AV and a very modern T-80BVM tanks, both previously captured from the Russian army.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uc1vrn/captured_russian_hardware_is_being_deployed_by/

[Tamas]

Russia and Belarus will hold joint drills of their air forces and air defence forces in Belarus, Minsk's defence ministry said in a statement this morning. Reuters reports the drills will take place from 26-29 April. In the buildup to the invasion of Ukraine masses of Russian troops moved into Belarus under the pretext of joint military exercises.

In a separate development, Moldovan president Maia Sandu is to convene a meeting of the country's supreme security council this afternoon over incidents that took place in the breakaway Transnistria region – presumably a reference to the reports of the destruction of two radio towers this morning [see 8.08am]. Sandu will hold a press briefing at noon GMT after the meeting.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, said on a Russian talkshow broadcast online that the next phase of Russia's military intervention was crucial following security incidents outside the region. He cited the blasts that hit Transnistria, as well as Russian allegations of shelling of its border regions by Ukrainian forces.

I guess it is impressive that despite not having completely conquered a single major city in Ukraine yet, Russia is already setting up the next country to invade. Does not bode well for avoiding WW3 though.

[Malicious Intent]

I thought they were planning to send old mothballed GDR T64s and 72s.

None left. All heavy equipment from GDR times was either sold, gifted to allied nations or scrapped in accordance with the CFE treaty. I think the 2000+ old Strela 2Ms we gave to Ukraine were the only significant NVA weapon system we had left.

[Admiral Yi]

asoka

[celedhring]

So, Oliver Stone is in Barcelona to receive an award. He's given an interview to the local press and he's said... well... Oliver Stone things    "All NATO's fault, 2014 was a coup to deestabilize Russia, Putin cares for his people".

Now there's going to be a protest at the awards ceremony.

[Jacob]

The New York Times had a big profile on Schroeder the other day, he does not come off well at all.

I read somewhere that it was a good thing that his entire staff resigned when the war started, because that way nobody was there to tell him not to do that NYT piece, showing him in such a bad light.

What were the main takeaways from the NYT profile of Schroder?

[The Larch]

The New York Times had a big profile on Schroeder the other day, he does not come off well at all.

I read somewhere that it was a good thing that his entire staff resigned when the war started, because that way nobody was there to tell him not to do that NYT piece, showing him in such a bad light.

What were the main takeaways from the NYT profile of Schroder?

I haven't read it entirely yet, this is what I got so far:

- He's good, personal friends with Putin, and prides himself of that.
- He's unrepentant of his commitment to the failed "Change through trade" traditional German policy towards Russia.

It also gives more info on the background for the NordStream pipelines, and how they were developed.

Here's the link if you want to take a look: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

[Sheilbh]

I haven't read it entirely yet, this is what I got so far:

A couple of points that seemed striking to me:

A section of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline during construction in the Baltic Sea in 2011.

"Industry eventually came and said we need more, possibly a lot more, gas," Mr. Schröder recalled. "We don't just need the pipeline because we need more gas. We also need the pipeline because of the difficulties with the pipeline in Ukraine."

"Why should we have objected as a government?" he added. "It never occurred to anyone that this could become a problem. It was just a way of procuring gas for Germans, for Germany's heavy industry, and also for the chemical industry, with fewer problems and disruptions."

Mr. Schröder and Mr. Putin backed the project early on and set up working groups to discuss industry and security.

This is wildly untrue. All of the complaints from Poland, from Ukraine and from other German allies where there from the start. It was an unhelpful phrase and probably added to the sense of Poland over-reacting but Sikorski (Anne Applebaum's husband and Donald Tusk's then foreign secretary - and now an MEP) gave his speech about Germany's energy policy with Russia being "a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact" while Schroeder was in office.

Also interesting that he admits one of the objectives of the pipeline that Ukraine said would create risk for them by removing them from Russia's energy relationship with Europe, was to remove Ukraine from that relationship.

Even as Mr. Putin was massing troops on the Ukraine border last fall, Mr. Schröder visited the Russian leader in Sochi, one of Mr. Putin's favorite retreats, across from the Black Sea coast that Russian forces are now trying to rip from Ukraine.

A cellphone photograph that Mr. Schröder showed me from that visit shows the two men smiling at each other, Mr. Putin in red hockey gear and Mr. Schröder in a light blue shirt and blazer. Asked what they talked about, he told me, "Soccer."

Mr. Schröder distanced himself from the war, though not from Mr. Putin. I asked about the by-now notorious atrocities in Bucha, a Kyiv suburb. "That has to be investigated," Mr. Schröder said, but added that he did not think those orders would have come from Mr. Putin, but from a lower authority.

I think it's really difficult to maintain - after ten years of the same tactics in Syria and the wars in Chechnya - that Putin is somehow distant from the war crimes in Ukraine. It seems like a playbook at this point.

Finally this line stood out:

He was tempted. On his 60th birthday, a year earlier, his biographer, Reinhard Urschel, had asked him what he wanted to do after leaving office. "Make money," Mr. Schröder had replied.

Has any group of politicians in Europe disgraced themselves out of office as much as the proponents for the Third Way? Schroeder here, Blair shilling for Kazakshtan and Azerbaijan, Renzi going to conferences in Saudi to big up the Saudi "neo-renaissance".

I don't know why but it feels like in their pusuit of money at the end of their term they've all gone further than more standard social democrats at the same time: Brown, Jospin, Prodi. But also further than the normal centre-right former leader who ends up on the board of maybe a few big multinationals or domestic corporate champions. I was a big believer in the Third Way leaders but they all seem to have actively sought out the dodgiest money available

[DGuller]

My one memory of Schroeder is when Putin was showing him around the Kremlin, freshly renovated with in-your-face opulence that would make even Trump complain about the lack of taste and subtlety.  The look on Schroeder's face was one of a child who just visited the candy store for the first time.  He could've just been polite, but in hindsight I think it was a genuine reaction, and one that revealed his depth as a person.

[Admiral Yi]

Anyone know what kind of bank he's making?