Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

So no drinking water for Crimea from the reservoir, their prepared defense works on the east bank of the Dnipro flooded. Major ecological disaster on territory formally claimed by Moscow. The only potential upside from this action is they don't have to worry about an amphibious assault across the Dnipro for the next couple of weeks, can shift a few units around.

[Duque de Bragança]

Seems like a panicky decision following the "totally repulsed" Ukrainian offensive or force recon of the past days. 

[Legbiter]

But glorious Gerasimov personally repulsed the feeble hohol attacks yesterday, destroying 500 Leopards 20 French tanks 1500 Bradleys and 21 F-16s. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Also he sank 4 aircraft carriers and captured 3 imperial eagles.

[grumbler]

And beat up Chuck Norris.

[Barrister]

Interesting Twitter thread by a guy whose bio says he's a NPR science reporter.  Since Musk got rid of legacy blue checks can't be certain, but seems to check out.

Anyways he points out the Russians were doing a shitty job managing the dam in the first place and a structural failure can't be ruled out.  Includes a bunch of satellite imagery.

https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665959437981429762

Or (and this is just me speculating) the Russians might have planned for a smaller, more controlled breach, but the existing damage caused a more general collapse.

[Zanza]

You all read how Russia is cleverly circumventing the oil sanctions by selling to India. The problem with that is that they are paid in rupees, which was even said to show a weakening of the dollar. Which are not really convertible or useable outside India. But India does not really sell anything that Russia needs. So all they get for their oil is evergrowing bank accounts in Indian banks...

[Josquius]

Interesting Twitter thread by a guy whose bio says he's a NPR science reporter.  Since Musk got rid of legacy blue checks can't be certain, but seems to check out.

Anyways he points out the Russians were doing a shitty job managing the dam in the first place and a structural failure can't be ruled out.  Includes a bunch of satellite imagery.

https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665959437981429762

Or (and this is just me speculating) the Russians might have planned for a smaller, more controlled breach, but the existing damage caused a more general collapse.

Sounds very possible.
I've heard it theorised they wanted to wash away Ukrainian positions on the sandbars but ended up wrecking their own fortifications too.

[Jacob]

You all read how Russia is cleverly circumventing the oil sanctions by selling to India. The problem with that is that they are paid in rupees, which was even said to show a weakening of the dollar. Which are not really convertible or useable outside India. But India does not really sell anything that Russia needs. So all they get for their oil is evergrowing bank accounts in Indian banks...

There's no way for them to convert those rupees to dollars?

[Barrister]

You all read how Russia is cleverly circumventing the oil sanctions by selling to India. The problem with that is that they are paid in rupees, which was even said to show a weakening of the dollar. Which are not really convertible or useable outside India. But India does not really sell anything that Russia needs. So all they get for their oil is evergrowing bank accounts in Indian banks...

There's no way for them to convert those rupees to dollars?

I guess this is where the Swift sanctions come in.

[HVC]

I'm sure there are more then a few Indian companies willing to be middlemen.

[crazy canuck]

I'm sure there are more then a few Indian companies willing to be middlemen.

Currency swaps can get a bit risky - even when not dealing with the obvious additional risks present in these circumstances.

[HVC]

I'm sure there are more then a few Indian companies willing to be middlemen.

Currency swaps can get a bit risky - even when not dealing with the obvious additional risks present in these circumstances.

Wouldn't it be easier to buy and sell the goods Russia needs?

[Zanza]

There's no way for them to convert those rupees to dollars?

There sure is, it is just a question of the price. There is little demand for rupees as you cannot spend them outside of India. There is few interesting investment opportunities inside India and not that many Indian goods or services to buy. That's why India has a significant trade deficit as well. So if you have billions of rupees and little demand, you can of course sell them. But certainly not at the normal exchange rate. You would have to heavily discount it, which means Russia gets much less hard currency for its oil than the sale price of that oil suggests.

[Razgovory]

Wait, rupees are real?