The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Duque de Bragança]

I suppose you mean it to contain and possibly destroy Daesh?  Because having Assad in full power and predictably engaging in a vindicative purge after the end of the war won't solve the illegal migrant crisis, unlike Putin says, far from it.
May be good against Daesh, which Assad used to get rid of the limited non-radical opposition.

Daesh controlling territory in Syria makes it easier for them to spread. Your migrant problem could get a LOT worse.

Not saying it could not get worse, but Assad's credentials against Daesh aren't exactly brilliant, with all the previous double dealings.
Wall Street Journal (sorry) claims Assad even fans Refugee crisis

http://www.wsj.com/articles/assad-regime-inflames-refugee-crisis-1442014327

TRIPOLI, Lebanon—As hundreds of thousands of refugees flee Syria for Europe, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad has been coming down hard on those who have stayed behind, particularly people viewed as potential threats.

Ahmed al-Hamid is one of them. The 37-year-old doctor said security agents picked him up in late 2013 for his role establishing field hospitals in opposition areas in Homs and Damascus. After six months in jail—where he said he was beaten with batons and whips while strapped to boards—Dr. Hamid was released by a sympathetic judge. Last year, he fled to nearby Lebanon, joining an exodus of professionals, dissidents and others who were driven out for being on the wrong side of the Syrian regime.

"There is no order, per se, but all conditions are being put in place so that people do not dare go back," says Dr. Hamid, a stocky man with a shaved head.

Refugees from Syria's multisided civil war have fueled Europe's migrant crisis. More than half the nearly 400,000 who have arrived in Europe by sea so far this year are Syrian, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency.

The West has focused largely on those fleeing Islamic State and its atrocities, but Mr. Assad's regime hasn't relented with the intimidation and force it has used since the start of the conflict more than four years ago: detention, torture and mandatory drafting into the army for military-age men, along with starvation and an aerial bombing campaign of opposition-held areas. His government has also offered subtle incentives to leave, such as an easier time obtaining a Syrian passport and less hassle booking flights to foreign countries.

SYRIA SHATTERED


The regime's tactics are pushing out its opponents and those perceived hostile to Mr. Assad, while friendlier groups are rebuilding from the wreckage of war. The cumulative results are broader demographic change designed to tighten Mr. Assad's hold over the few places he still controls.

Many Syrians say the Assad regime, along with the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, is specifically targeting Syria's Sunni Arab majority. Syria's rebels are mostly Sunni, while those defending the regime are mainly members of Mr. Assad's Shiite-linked Alawite minority and Shiite foreign fighters.

Only two pro-regime Shiite villages remain in northern Idlib province after Mr. Assad lost an air base there this week to the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. Both Mr. Assad and his main allies in the war—Hezbollah, Iran and Russia—appear intent on maintaining control over Damascus and a corridor of territory connecting the capital with the Mediterranean coast via Homs.

U.S. officials have expressed concern that Russia is positioning itself to take a more active role defending President Assad from rebel assaults, but Moscow has denied such allegations, saying it is only airlifting military cargo and humanitarian aid to Syria.

In Damascus, the demographic changes aimed at surrounding Mr. Assad with regime-friendly groups are increasingly visible. Many residents say parts of the city's historic quarter are now unrecognizable because of the growing presence of Iran-trained Syrian Shiite militiamen and their families.

Several predominantly Sunni areas around Damascus have been recently recaptured by the regime and its allies, prompting most residents who are seen as sympathetic to the opposition to flee. Syrian officials say they are proceeding with an ambitious urban renewal plan that seeks to construct better housing and infrastructure, and that there are no broader efforts to repopulate cities with people friendly to the regime.

"Our current preoccupation is people's return," said Homs governor Talal al-Barazi, who was appointed by Mr. Assad. "Demographic changes in any area are forbidden."

A 27-year-old mechanical engineer and opposition activist, who asked not to be identified because his family remains in the eastern suburbs of Damascus, estimates that only 500,000 civilians are left in the area. That's about one-third the number from two years ago, when the regime was blamed for a major chemical weapons attack on the area.

Since then the regime has kept up its bombardment of the area. In August, 556 people, including 123 children, were killed in regime airstrikes on the area, according to tallies released by local medics.

The activist arrived in Beirut last month after paying to be smuggled out through a tunnel that connects the eastern suburbs with Damascus. Many Syrians who come to Lebanon are looking to move on to Europe. And those who had settled temporarily in Tripoli are doing the same.

Since the start of the conflict in Syria, this northern Lebanese city transformed into a "second Homs" for many natives of the Syrian city. Located just about 70 miles from Tripoli, Homs is close by but remains a distant dream for many Syrians.

"It's impossible to go back," said Saeed Al-Sowas, a Homs native living in Tripoli. "Even those who remain inside now feel like strangers in their homeland."

Mr. Sowas, 25 years old, who now works in a barber shop in Tripoli, says he can count at least 40 of his friends and acquaintances, mostly Homs natives, who left Tripoli for Europe since the start of this summer. He plans to join them in Europe by the end of September. He was able to obtain a Syrian passport for $1,100, a sum that he said included bribes.

The Sowas family home is in central Homs, a heavily damaged area that remains largely abandoned after the regime regained it from rebels in May 2014.

In Damascus, authorities last month began implementing a plan to build new housing units, and have started razing predominantly Sunni areas designated as illegal slums. A ceremony last month inaugurated a section of the reclaimed land for a park dedicated to the late dictator Kim Il Sung of North Korea, which has long cooperated with Syria on military and trade affairs. As many as 150,000 people living in the slums risk being displaced. Similar slums in the city occupied by Alawites weren't affected by the regime's housing plan.

Two weeks ago, the Homs city council approved a major reconstruction program for Baba Amr and two adjacent neighborhoods, Mr. Barazi said in an interview. He said the rebuilding plan will be covered by a new special decree to be issued by Mr. Assad shortly. The project, which calls for the creation of housing units for 65,000 people, will start in 2016 and take three to four years to complete.

Dr. Hamid came from Baba Amr, one of the first Homs neighborhoods to be recaptured by the regime in early 2012 in an incursion that killed hundreds of civilians. Among them: Dr. Hamid's father and one of his sisters.

Today, the neighborhood is encircled by a wall and regime security forces. Mr. Barazi, the governor, said only 5% of the neighborhood's original 41,000 inhabitants have returned, mostly because the neighborhood was destroyed by fighting. Many residents say only select Sunni families—vetted by the security forces—are allowed back, in addition to some Alawites and Shiites, who are seen as aligned with the regime.

Dr. Hamid and others say Syria's newly simplified passport-application process is another way the regime is helping rid the country of its enemies. Before an April decree by Mr. Assad, Syrians applying for a passport needed letters from security agencies and proof of completed military service; applicants could wait months, even years, for their application to wend its way through Syria's bureaucracy. Under the new decree, prerequisites have been waived, and people who aren't a target of security services have been able to get passports within a month.

The decree set the passport fee at $400, but Dr. Hamid said he had to pay another $2,600 in bribes to finally obtain his because he is still wanted by some security agencies in Syria. He said he had been trying for almost a year before the decree—even with bribes—but was still unable to obtain a passport.

Now, it's just a matter of when he will leave Lebanon, and where he will go. His mother and eldest brother are in Saudi Arabia. His youngest brother has been in Sweden for over a year. A sister who had remained in another Homs neighborhood left this week and has arrived in Greece via Turkey. He plans to follow before the end of this month, when high tides are expected to make the sea journey more dangerous. "The plan," says Dr. Hamid, "is for us to meet in Sweden one day."

It's only the WSJ, so other sources would be nice.

[Valmy]

What I am really hoping for is that the US is willing to concede this one to Russia and actually let them do the dirty work NATO should have been doing.

I would assume that if Assad can be resurrected with Russian backing while the US makes a backroom deal on turning a blind eye to it, then 100% Russian influence on the country can be avoided.

Russia is welcome to have 100% 'influence' over any Middle Eastern nation he chooses. Talk about a poison pill.

[KRonn]

I'm sure that Putin will look into ways of keeping the refugee stream going as long as it leads to problems and disunity within the EU.

Heh, yep. Certainly none of them are heading to Mother Russia.

[KRonn]

What I am really hoping for is that the US is willing to concede this one to Russia and actually let them do the dirty work NATO should have been doing.

I would assume that if Assad can be resurrected with Russian backing while the US makes a backroom deal on turning a blind eye to it, then 100% Russian influence on the country can be avoided.

Russia is welcome to have 100% 'influence' over any Middle Eastern nation he chooses. Talk about a poison pill.

Really, that's no bargain. While I welcome Russia to intervene on Assad's side to prevent another failed mid east terrorist state, I think they'll face a tough insurgency for a long while. Consider that the US with tens of thousands of troops and air support took weeks or more in clearing out some insurgent held Iraqi strongholds, ISIS is a lot stronger and more well armed.

[Syt]

It seems that since Russia started transferring equipment to Syria, and since Putin started his calls for having a united front against IS, fighting has quieted down in Eastern Ukraine, with the separatists suddenly adhering to the ceasefire. 

[Tamas]

It seems that since Russia started transferring equipment to Syria, and since Putin started his calls for having a united front against IS, fighting has quieted down in Eastern Ukraine, with the separatists suddenly adhering to the ceasefire. 

[Eddie Teach]

He had to cancel vacations for the army.

[Archy]

I think eastern Ukraïne will also be my holiday destination next year. I hear it's fabulous.

[Syt]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34294640

BREAKING: US seeks Russia military talks on Syria

President Obama would like to hold military talks with Russia on Syria, and hopes they could take place "very shortly", his Secretary of State John Kerry has said.

The US has been concerned about Russia's increased military presence in Syria.

"We're looking for ways in which to find a common ground," said Mr Kerry.

Moscow has meanwhile said that any request from Syria to send troops would be "discussed and considered".

"But it is difficult to talk about this hypothetically," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added.

[mongers]

Just seen John Kerry interviewed in London; who'd have thought Russia will be providing the boots on the ground that the European/Americans were to worried about providing. 

[Admiral Yi]

Just seen John Kerry interviewed in London; who'd have thought Russia will be providing the boots on the ground that the European/Americans were to worried about providing.

Almost everyone. 

[Tonitrus]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/russia-decries-shelling-embassy-syria-150921160048570.html

Russia decries shelling of its embassy in Syria
Russian foreign ministry calls for "concrete action" in the wake of Sunday's attack on its embassy compound.
21 Sep 2015 21:31 GMT | War & Conflict, Middle East, Syria, Russia


The Russian foreign ministry has blamed an attack on its Damascus embassy compound on 'anti-government gunmen' [Associated Press]
Russia has said that a shell landed on the grounds of its embassy compound in Damascus, without inflicting any casualties.

The mortar landed on the embassy's territory around 9am on Sunday morning and caused no damage or injuries, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Monday.

"A large labelled fragment of the shell was later extracted from the earth by Syrian mine clearance specialists," the ministry's statement added. "Efforts are now being taken to find out how this shell came across to militants."

The ministry blamed the "criminal attack" on "anti-government gunmen" who it claims fired the shell from Jobar, a district of the Syrian capital.

'Clear position'

The ministry called for "concrete action," adding: "We expect a clear position over this terrorist attack from all members of the international community, including regional parties."

The attack comes at a time when Russia has been criticised for increased military involvement in Syria, where it is a staunch ally of embattled President Bashar al-Assad.

The Russian government has admitted to having military advisers on the ground in Syria and delivering surface-to-air missiles and combat aircrafts to Syrian government forces, as well as refortifying a government-controlled military base near the coastal city of Latakia.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin reiterated his country's support for Assad's forces on Sunday. Speaking on Russian television, Putin said the Syrian government "is trying to maintain its own statehood".

Foreign involvement

The Russian foreign ministry's statement claimed the groups behind the attack were acting at the behest of "foreign sponsors", although it did not clarify which countries. No groups have claimed credit for the shelling at this time.

Rebels have denounced the ongoing Russian military buildup in Syria. Speaking to Reuters, one group, Jaish al-Islam, claimed to have carried out a missile attack on a military base in Latakia being used by Russian soldiers.

Abu Ghaith al-Shami, spokesperson for the Free Syrian Army-aligned Alwiyat Seif al-Sham militia, told Reuters that rebels' regional backers may also increase their involvement.

"As for the states that support us, ... I think there will be a change in their attitude towards us, via support, or perhaps a political shift," the spokesperson said.

[Razgovory]

Just seen John Kerry interviewed in London; who'd have thought Russia will be providing the boots on the ground that the European/Americans were to worried about providing.

We should send sunscreen or something.

[jimmy olsen]

People chose to live in modern Europe instead of a neo seventh century hell hole? I'm shocked!

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/09/22/442520787/the-flood-of-syrian-refugees-puts-isis-on-the-defensive

The Flood Of Syrian Refugees Puts ISIS On The Defensive

SEPTEMBER 22, 2015 1:52 PM ET

As more Syrian refugees board rickety boats on the Turkish coast, the Islamic State is cranking up its propaganda campaign.

The refugee crisis is also becoming a crisis for ISIS, as Syrians reject the group's claim that the so-called caliphate offers a safe haven, and the refugees instead opt for the dangerous journey to Europe.

In recent weeks, ISIS has put out almost a dozen videos with messages that denounce the refugees, threaten them with the horrors of living among "unbelievers" and plead with them to join the caliphate.

"The idea that they are not heading to 'ISIS land' is a slap in the face," says Alberto Fernandez, who ran the State Department's counterterrorism communications unit before recently joining the Middle East Media Research Institute, or MEMRI.

"They are leaving because their relatives were killed by Assad," he says of the refugees. "That's the ISIS demographic, but the people brutalized by Assad are not turning to ISIS."

And that has rattled the group, according to Fernandez. The media coverage of the refugee exodus is impossible to ignore even in areas under ISIS control, he notes.

"You can't avoid heart-wrenching pictures of people going West," he adds. It is an affront to the basic ISIS ideology, he says, for a militant group that believes it is a sin for Muslims to live in inclusive Western societies.

For these ideological militants, "real Muslims" must become part of ISIS, and "if you are trapped in the West, go kill someone," says Fernandez, describing the basic message of the Islamic State. The rejection by so many Syrians has prompted ISIS to try to counter the narrative.

The Soufan Group, a security consulting think tank based in New York, translated the titles of the recent videos, which include:

— Dear Refugees, Hear It From Us

— And He Will Replace You With Other People

— Advice To The Refugees Going To The Countries Of Disbelief

— Would You Exchange What Is Better For What Is Less

— Warning To The Refugees Of The Deceptions Of The Crusaders

The titles reflect "the group's confusion as to how to exploit the issue, or at least limit the damage to its image," according to the Soufan Group's most recent report.

"This is very unusual, in terms of so many on one topic in a short time frame," says Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, an analyst at the Middle East Forum, a think tank based in the U.S.

Tamimi says one reason for this propaganda barrage is ISIS wants to get back into the media spotlight, but "they also want to counter the idea that they are responsible for the crisis."

The overwhelming rejection of the caliphate is a serious blow, says Aron Lund, editor of Syria in Crisis, a website published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"It considers itself a caliphate and the only legitimate Islamic government," says Lund.

The majority of Sunni Muslims who oppose President Bashar Assad's regime also reject the ISIS hard-line ideology. No amount of propaganda videos can counter the image of desperate Syrian families on the move with their children, willing to sacrifice everything on the gamble for a better future in Europe.

"If you look at the people who have left Syria in the past few years, it's the best people," says Fernandez. These are people who aspire to a middle-class life."

More than 4 million Syrians have fled the country since the war began in 2011 and nearly 8 million are displaced inside the country. Together, these 12 million Syrians account for more than half of the country's prewar population of about 23 million.

"It is an emptying of the best elements, the people who are the dreamers. The middle is being emptied out," Fernandez says.

[Caliga]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/russia-decries-shelling-embassy-syria-150921160048570.html

Russia decries shelling of its embassy in Syria
Russian foreign ministry calls for "concrete action" in the wake of Sunday's attack on its embassy compound.
21 Sep 2015 21:31 GMT | War & Conflict, Middle East, Syria, Russia

In other news, Germany is FURIOUS that Polish troops attacked a radio station in Gleiwitz on the German-Polish border.