The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

7 year Australian boy poses with a severed head. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/12/australian-boy-severed-head_n_5670673.html?utm_hp_ref=world

[CountDeMoney]

Mad Max: Beyond Kindergarten

[KRonn]

Obama due to make a statement within the next few minutes on military action in Iraq:

http://www.reuters.com/

He's now said that this is going to take a long time to stop/defeat ISIS. Yep, prepare everyone for a long term campaign which will consist of assisting friendly forces on the ground with supplies, military equipment and air strikes. IMO they need to get very serious with air strikes, but perhaps that needs to wait until there are more ground forces to work with, which means resupplied and re-equipped Kurds and Iraqi forces.

Wasn't it just a three weeks ago Obama wanted Congress to repeal the Authorization to Use Force in Iraq?  I guess his little unicorn world is slowly getting destroyed by reality.

Well, even if Congress and the President do repeal that, they can't plan on when others may make war or other trouble, just because we're not interested anymore. In fact that's probably when others will make trouble because they think there may be no interest/response.

[The Minsky Moment]

Under War Powers, President could deploy forces for 90 days even absent AUMF.  And I can't imagine it would be difficult to get further authorization for the sorts of things he is contemplating, even with the pack of fractious clowns in Congress. 

[derspiess]

Under War Powers, President could deploy forces for 90 days even absent AUMF.  And I can't imagine it would be difficult to get further authorization for the sorts of things he is contemplating, even with the pack of fractious clowns in Congress. 

Depends on public support.  What sorts of things do you think he's contemplating?

[Berkut]

Under War Powers, President could deploy forces for 90 days even absent AUMF.  And I can't imagine it would be difficult to get further authorization for the sorts of things he is contemplating, even with the pack of fractious clowns in Congress. 

Oh, I would not put it past the House at all to simultaneously bitch about Obama The Tyrant abusing his executive powers, complain that he is weak and ineffective because he doesn't respond vigorously enough to ISIS, and at the exact same time categorically refuse to pass any meaningful authorization to take greater action.

And then sue him no matter what he does.

[Viking]

Under War Powers, President could deploy forces for 90 days even absent AUMF.  And I can't imagine it would be difficult to get further authorization for the sorts of things he is contemplating, even with the pack of fractious clowns in Congress. 

Oh, I would not put it past the House at all to simultaneously bitch about Obama The Tyrant abusing his executive powers, complain that he is weak and ineffective because he doesn't respond vigorously enough to ISIS, and at the exact same time categorically refuse to pass any meaningful authorization to take greater action.

And then sue him no matter what he does.

Your training is complete young padwan, welcome to the Liberal side.

[KRonn]

Under War Powers, President could deploy forces for 90 days even absent AUMF.  And I can't imagine it would be difficult to get further authorization for the sorts of things he is contemplating, even with the pack of fractious clowns in Congress. 

Depends on public support.  What sorts of things do you think he's contemplating?

Public pressure against intervening in Syria added to Pres Obama not intervening, but I don't think there will be that pressure against intervening against ISIS. I think the opposite will be true and that the pressure is to take action of some kind, especially to help the Kurds and overall to assist in stopping ISIS. I don't see any desire to put troops in but even for an air campaign there will have to be some special forces in working with the Kurds and Iraqis on the ground, and some of those US troops are certainly already there. British SAS troops are there as well, at least being reported as such.

[CountDeMoney]

Obama wants to use force when the goals are finite, measurable and achievable.  Saving refugees on a mountaintop or preventing the Kurdish seat of government from being overrun fit those specific parameters.  While I felt the same about Syria, he apparently did not consider action there as fitting that definition.

[The Minsky Moment]

Agreed with CdM on all points.
Territorialization was a strategic mistake by ISIS. It's ultimately a form of self-containment.  Let's say they run the tables and bowl over both the Kurds and the Iraqi rump regime.  Then they will find themselves with a hostile Turkey on one front and 100,000 angry Iranian revolutionary guards on the other.

[derspiess]

Agreed with CdM on all points.
Territorialization was a strategic mistake by ISIS. It's ultimately a form of self-containment.  Let's say they run the tables and bowl over both the Kurds and the Iraqi rump regime.  Then they will find themselves with a hostile Turkey on one front and 100,000 angry Iranian revolutionary guards on the other.

What was the alternative for them?

[Berkut]

Agreed with CdM on all points.
Territorialization was a strategic mistake by ISIS. It's ultimately a form of self-containment.  Let's say they run the tables and bowl over both the Kurds and the Iraqi rump regime.  Then they will find themselves with a hostile Turkey on one front and 100,000 angry Iranian revolutionary guards on the other.

What was the alternative for them?

If they really want to form a state, the alternative is to not over-reach.

Which they may very well be doing, by the way. Are they really trying to take over the Kurds, or the southern, Shia dominated parts of Iraq?

Or just trying to purge what they've seized so far?

[derspiess]

Agreed with CdM on all points.
Territorialization was a strategic mistake by ISIS. It's ultimately a form of self-containment.  Let's say they run the tables and bowl over both the Kurds and the Iraqi rump regime.  Then they will find themselves with a hostile Turkey on one front and 100,000 angry Iranian revolutionary guards on the other.

What was the alternative for them?

If they really want to form a state, the alternative is to not over-reach.

Which they may very well be doing, by the way. Are they really trying to take over the Kurds, or the southern, Shia dominated parts of Iraq?

Or just trying to purge what they've seized so far?

That's a valid point.  I guess it's just hard to stop when you've had so much success.  They probably think they can conquer and either force-convert or kill all non-Sunnis in the region.

[Grinning_Colossus]

Yeah, I very much doubt that they're thinking rationally. They think they're the Rashidun Caliphate reborn, and that, just as God once led the armies of Islam to victory over Rome and Persia, so he will again.

[The Brain]

The only way they can be stopped is if Obama accidentally pushes the wrong button.