The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[LaCroix]

"Had the requisite assistance started flowing two years ago, both Syria and Iraq would be in better places now," he writes. "Fantasy? Few in the administration — including at very senior levels — think so."

could the united states have afforded, domestically and internationally, to fully charge in with guns blazing? i'm not sure how much lukewarm assistance would have helped.

[Grinning_Colossus]

But I saw nothing wrong in punitive strikes for using chemical weapons, say, by blowing up all his shiny, new-and-not-yet-quite-paid-for Russian air defense systems. 

That seems to be it exactly. Modern Russian air defenses might have produced newsworthy American losses in an air war, and Obama didn't want to be blamed for it.

[jimmy olsen]

 Good breakdown of the ISIS offensive against the Kurds

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/iran-at-saban/posts/2014/08/11-pollack-isis-offensive-against-iraq-kurds

EDIT: CdM prempted me! How Rumsfeldian of him!

[CountDeMoney]

But I saw nothing wrong in punitive strikes for using chemical weapons, say, by blowing up all his shiny, new-and-not-yet-quite-paid-for Russian air defense systems. 

That seems to be it exactly. Modern Russian air defenses might have produced newsworthy American losses in an air war, and Obama didn't want to be blamed for it.

Modern Russian hardware crewed by Syrian conscripts? I'll take my chances.

[derspiess]

I don't see how sabotaging Obama ups Hillary's chances in the election.

Unless Obama's popularity gets a surge between now & 2016, her service in his administration could become a pretty big anchor for her. 

[CountDeMoney]

I wouldn't consider it sabotage;  it was known at the time she--and others in the administration--disagreed with the policy, hell, she had even put it out in her book.  None of this is exactly news, just pot stirring by a media that dorsn't have anything better to do until some Republican decides to redefine rape or something.

[derspiess]

The Army is now purging itself of that experience in order to return to a more classic role as they have done after each conflict since Korea. That way they ensure they make the same mistakes next time around. The Army is really run by idiots.

I remember in the mid-90s there were an awful lot of guys who attended CAS3 and other schools during Desert Storm and got promoted over guys who actually served in Desert Storm and had valuable combat experience.  And of course many of the latter left the Army.

[mongers]

We don't have a good track record in training foreign armies.

Then perhaps we should blame what ever military organization that trains and motivates these people.  I'm not a military man, I wouldn't know where such a command would be, what it's called, or who would staff it.  Perhaps Hans does.

Originally SF was supposed to do that, but they have scaled back their efforts in that realm to do more fun kinetic actions.  When they train foreign troops it is mostly foreign SOF elements.

That is one of the greatest deficits we have in our military because it means that those who do train foreign forces are often shanghaied into these roles and do a relatively poor job at it due to lack of competence or interest in the mission.  That was my experience in Afghanistan when I was an advisor.

The Army is now purging itself of that experience in order to return to a more classic role as they have done after each conflict since Korea. That way they ensure they make the same mistakes next time around. The Army is really run by idiots.

I think that's a little harsh on the Americans, the Iraqis military really self-sabotaged themselves under the incompetent Maliki rule. 

Iraq has apparently bought something like 140 helicopters in recent years, yet just 4 are based at an airbase and are supporting the Kurds in the Sinjar mountains and those have to split their time between COIN and rescue missions.

And in the recent Iraqi 'counter-offensive' against ISIS in north central Iraq, it was supported by just one helicopter.

Oh yes in Iraq after fucking it up for a few years they did fix the training program thanks to Patreus, though Iraq was not self-sustainable at the time we pulled out. They lacked higher-level capabilities that military planners assumed we would provide for several more years until they could sustain themselves, though I'm not confident we would've ever succeeded in that because of our inability to adapt doctrines to non western cultures.

In Afghanistan especially I was frequently frustrated because most senior leaders couldn't grasp that you can't simply translate US doctrine into Dari and then teach it to the Afghans.  I spent several months rewriting US doctrine on the fly while teaching the afghans as I saw what worked and what didn't work. All of that effort was abandoned when I left because my successors didn't care.  Now they contacted me because they hired expensive contractors for over $100,000 per year to teach them what I taught them back then, but they're simply doing a 1 for 1 translation of our doctrine which will never work.

It is those higher skill function where we fail so miserably because most of the senior leaders didn't really care because being an advisor is considered a detriment to promotion.

Thanks for the info, Hansie.

[Viking]

I always considered the true test of a democracy if the sitting leader who ousted the first leader by democratic means can get ousted by democratic means.

[Sheilbh]

Maliki has stepped down. Which is good.

[DontSayBanana]

Maliki has stepped down. Which is good.

Well, not good, but a better outcome than some were considering.

[Admiral Yi]

Unless Obama's popularity gets a surge between now & 2016, her service in his administration could become a pretty big anchor for her.

The people who dislike him for his foreign policy are never going to vote for Hillary anyway.  So she gains 3 votes from the Council on Foreign Relations and loses black and hipster votes for pissing on their boy.

[CountDeMoney]

The people who dislike him for his foreign policy are never going to vote for Hillary anyway.  So she gains 3 votes from the Council on Foreign Relations and loses black and hipster votes for pissing on their boy.

Nonsense.  I dislike his foreign policy, and I would vote for Hillary as she actually possesses one, albeit more Gore hawkism than Clintonian US-power-as-free-trade-guarantor.  Blacks and hipsters will just have to suck it up.

Obama's been a total flop on foreign policy save the Pacific pivot, and even that's been ignored for the last year because we're back to the same goddamned Muslims-on-monkey-bars reruns on HansyTV.

[DGuller]

Unless Obama's popularity gets a surge between now & 2016, her service in his administration could become a pretty big anchor for her.

The people who dislike him for his foreign policy are never going to vote for Hillary anyway.  So she gains 3 votes from the Council on Foreign Relations and loses black and hipster votes for pissing on their boy.

I disagree.  I think that significantly more than 50% of the population disagrees with Obama's foreign policy.  I may have to vote for Hillary in 2016, because frankly Republicans are still many years away from regaining sanity, but I really hope that Democrats come up with a worthier candidate than Hillary. 

In my mind, Hillary won't be able to press the reset button on Obama's foreign policy, she was an integral part of it.  She may see now where it's wrong, but I'm not at all convinced that she has the ability to make the right calls going forward, without the benefit of hindsight.

[Ed Anger]

I give Obama 10 extra credit points for the repeated use of the Hellfire missile as Isalmotard eraser. And not giving a fuck who dislikes it.