The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Razgovory]

Agreed with CdM on all points.
Territorialization was a strategic mistake by ISIS. It's ultimately a form of self-containment.  Let's say they run the tables and bowl over both the Kurds and the Iraqi rump regime.  Then they will find themselves with a hostile Turkey on one front and 100,000 angry Iranian revolutionary guards on the other.

What was the alternative for them?

If they really want to form a state, the alternative is to not over-reach.

Which they may very well be doing, by the way. Are they really trying to take over the Kurds, or the southern, Shia dominated parts of Iraq?

Or just trying to purge what they've seized so far?

Yeah, I think you are right.  The problem probably came when they were joined by Iraqi Sunnis who wanted to push east to punish their enemies as oppose to the Syrian Sunnis who want to push west to topple Assad.

[Malthus]

7 year Australian boy poses with a severed head. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/12/australian-boy-severed-head_n_5670673.html?utm_hp_ref=world

In what may be one of the most shocking photos passed around on social media, a 7-year-old Australian boy is seen holding up a severed head in Syria.

"That's my boy," reads the caption reportedly posted by Khaled Sharrouf, a convicted terrorist who fled Australia to join the Islamic State militants waging war in Syria and Iraq.

Doesn't every parent want their son to get a head in life? 

[Viking]

7 year Australian boy poses with a severed head. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/12/australian-boy-severed-head_n_5670673.html?utm_hp_ref=world

Doesn't every parent want their son to get a head in life? 

I sincerely hope that rather than the US$2,000 stroller you regret not investing in a father-son Jewhad vacation.

[Malthus]

7 year Australian boy poses with a severed head. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/12/australian-boy-severed-head_n_5670673.html?utm_hp_ref=world

Doesn't every parent want their son to get a head in life? 

I sincerely hope that rather than the US$2,000 stroller you regret not investing in a father-son Jewhad vacation.

There is still time!

Also, a new use for the stroller, now that the kid is grown - handy portable head storage.

[Viking]

7 year Australian boy poses with a severed head. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/12/australian-boy-severed-head_n_5670673.html?utm_hp_ref=world

Doesn't every parent want their son to get a head in life? 

I sincerely hope that rather than the US$2,000 stroller you regret not investing in a father-son Jewhad vacation.

There is still time!

Also, a new use for the stroller, now that the kid is grown - handy portable head storage.

Isn't the Jewlish word for small wheeled foot propelled vehicle "Merkava"?

[Valmy]

Just a little father-son genocide.  Brings a family together.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Agreed with CdM on all points.
Territorialization was a strategic mistake by ISIS. It's ultimately a form of self-containment.  Let's say they run the tables and bowl over both the Kurds and the Iraqi rump regime.  Then they will find themselves with a hostile Turkey on one front and 100,000 angry Iranian revolutionary guards on the other.

how hostile is Turkey really given that they let in scores of those terrorists over the past few years.

[Viking]

Agreed with CdM on all points.
Territorialization was a strategic mistake by ISIS. It's ultimately a form of self-containment.  Let's say they run the tables and bowl over both the Kurds and the Iraqi rump regime.  Then they will find themselves with a hostile Turkey on one front and 100,000 angry Iranian revolutionary guards on the other.

how hostile is Turkey really given that they let in scores of those terrorists over the past few years.

Erdogan is in the Turkish Ikhwan, the Muslim Brothers are yet another group of secularized and impious muslims in the eyes of ISIS.

[grumbler]

The only way they can be stopped is if Obama accidentally pushes the wrong right button.

FTFY

[mongers]

More bombing please.

[Archy]

Since they are already troglodytes bomb them back to the Jurassic era

[Hansmeister]

Obama due to make a statement within the next few minutes on military action in Iraq:

http://www.reuters.com/

He's now said that this is going to take a long time to stop/defeat ISIS. Yep, prepare everyone for a long term campaign which will consist of assisting friendly forces on the ground with supplies, military equipment and air strikes. IMO they need to get very serious with air strikes, but perhaps that needs to wait until there are more ground forces to work with, which means resupplied and re-equipped Kurds and Iraqi forces.

Wasn't it just a three weeks ago Obama wanted Congress to repeal the Authorization to Use Force in Iraq?  I guess his little unicorn world is slowly getting destroyed by reality.

Well, even if Congress and the President do repeal that, they can't plan on when others may make war or other trouble, just because we're not interested anymore. In fact that's probably when others will make trouble because they think there may be no interest/response.

Well, yeah, but that was just three weeks ago, by that time ISIS had already occupied large parts of Iraq. The problem is that the WH seems to be utterly clueless and without anything even remotely resembling a plan or even an objective. Whether it is Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lybia, Israel, Egypt, or Ukraine what each of these have in common is that there is a total incoherence in the WH's approach.

[Valmy]

I am not sure if there really is a winning plan in any of those situations

Granted I am not asking anybody to make me POTUS.

[Sheilbh]

Erdogan is in the Turkish Ikhwan, the Muslim Brothers are yet another group of secularized and impious muslims in the eyes of ISIS.

However my understanding is that the Turkish hinterland has produced a fairly large number of foreign recruits for jihadi groups in the Middle East and (especially) the Caucus.

Oh, I would not put it past the House at all to simultaneously bitch about Obama The Tyrant abusing his executive powers, complain that he is weak and ineffective because he doesn't respond vigorously enough to ISIS, and at the exact same time categorically refuse to pass any meaningful authorization to take greater action.

It is annoying to see the same people who when Obama was considering action in Syria, warned that any arms and aid we give to 'moderate' rebels would probably end up benefiting extremists now saying if only Obama had acted in Syria for the moderates (suddenly no quotation marks in their opinion pieces) it could have prevented the rise of ISIS.

Obama wants to use force when the goals are finite, measurable and achievable.  Saving refugees on a mountaintop or preventing the Kurdish seat of government from being overrun fit those specific parameters.  While I felt the same about Syria, he apparently did not consider action there as fitting that definition.

Yep. I disagree with you on Syria but that's it.

Of course the risk is that they've now got money and arms. They only need to divert a fraction of their foreign supporters back to the rest of the West. The reports that they've sent representatives to various states in North Africa to recruit and perhaps whip up sentiment there is rather worrying.

I always thought the analogy of al-Qaeda to 19th century anarchists was pretty good. If so ISIS seem a little, worryingly Bolshevik to their merely terrorist predecessors.

Or just trying to purge what they've seized so far?

I think this is it.

It seems to me like there's probably two big impulses. One is to get oil - which the Kurds are sitting on - and the other is to secure their hinterland. If they've got Kurdish or Shia or even Christian villages in their Iraqi or Syrian territory then that's a potential fifth column (or point of dispute in any later border settlement). It's awful but I think there's a rational region to purge potential enemies whether they're other rebel groups or Sunni groups (like the remnants of the Baath who've been totally absorbed) or other ethnic or religious groups.It was also their approach in Syria. They would 'cleanse' an area before trying to move on.

My suspicion, though I could be wrong, is that they want to seize Kurdish oil fields, consolidate their holding on the Sunni parts of Iraq (as they have in Syria) and blow apart any sense of borders (remember that early picture they used a lot of their men shooting the Sykes-Picot border marker). It's helpful that in doing that last thing they can threaten Baghdad. If they succeed, great. If they just threaten, it may well lead Shia sectarian cleansing there which will further smash the border and increase their support among Sunnis.

[Sheilbh]

I am not sure if there really is a winning plan in any of those situations

Yeah. I mean a basic question that I don't think is easy to answer is should any 'Western' policy aspire to preserve Iraq and Syria as states?