Mass Death Sentences in Egypt

[Razgovory]

They killed a lot of protesters taking power, why would you expect a more subtle approach now?

[DGuller]

They killed a lot of protesters taking power, why would you expect a more subtle approach now?

It's hard to be subtle when you're seizing power, you don't yet have control of the secret police to quietly disappear troublemakers.

[grumbler]

At best Sisi succeeds in getting on top of Egypts economic problems and he's a new Nasser. At best Egypt will be a very managed democracy, but I think even then a military dictatorship is more likely. At worst I think another mass revolt is likely, clashing with a far more repressive state than the MB or even Mubarak. It's striking that the Army, which is the last and only trusted national institution in Egypt, have thrown their credibility behind Sisi. This was apparently against the advice of his backers in the Gulf who wanted a civilian to run for President with Sisi as the power behind the throne and the Army able to remove them if there were protests again. As it is there's no veil. If Sisi fails then the Army has failed.

Exactly.  This is the Tsar taking personal command of the Russian Army in September, 1915. 

[grumbler]

Given that situation I didn't get the need for a coup. My view was you shouldn't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake and the Army will no have responsibility for Egypt's economy which is dysfunctional for reasons way beyond Morsi.

It's not about the Brotherhood being vindicated - I'm not even sure what from. They were incredibly incompetent and are a very conservative, very narrow Islamist party. But I was a relatively convinced neo-con and I still, kind-of, am.

I agree that one shouldn't interrupt an enemy while making a mistake, and that one has to let the Islamists ride their economies down in flames, to discredit them as rational rulers.  To overthrow them, as the Egyptian military has, simply allows the Islamists to escape from their trap.  When the economy hits bottom, it will be the military holding the bag, not the Islamists.  The fable that the Islamists would have stopped the disaster had they not been overthrown will gain traction.

[The Brain]

Paris is worth a mass death sentence.

[PJL]

Given that situation I didn't get the need for a coup. My view was you shouldn't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake and the Army will no have responsibility for Egypt's economy which is dysfunctional for reasons way beyond Morsi.

It's not about the Brotherhood being vindicated - I'm not even sure what from. They were incredibly incompetent and are a very conservative, very narrow Islamist party. But I was a relatively convinced neo-con and I still, kind-of, am.

I agree that one shouldn't interrupt an enemy while making a mistake, and that one has to let the Islamists ride their economies down in flames, to discredit them as rational rulers.  To overthrow them, as the Egyptian military has, simply allows the Islamists to escape from their trap.  When the economy hits bottom, it will be the military holding the bag, not the Islamists.  The fable that the Islamists would have stopped the disaster had they not been overthrown will gain traction.

I expect the backers will make sure the economy doesn't hit rock bottom. In return of course for actions that will please them.

[alfred russel]

I agree that one shouldn't interrupt an enemy while making a mistake, and that one has to let the Islamists ride their economies down in flames, to discredit them as rational rulers.  To overthrow them, as the Egyptian military has, simply allows the Islamists to escape from their trap.  When the economy hits bottom, it will be the military holding the bag, not the Islamists.  The fable that the Islamists would have stopped the disaster had they not been overthrown will gain traction.

Your strategy hasn't worked so well in Iran.

[grumbler]

I agree that one shouldn't interrupt an enemy while making a mistake, and that one has to let the Islamists ride their economies down in flames, to discredit them as rational rulers.  To overthrow them, as the Egyptian military has, simply allows the Islamists to escape from their trap.  When the economy hits bottom, it will be the military holding the bag, not the Islamists.  The fable that the Islamists would have stopped the disaster had they not been overthrown will gain traction.

Your strategy hasn't worked so well in Iran.

Disagree completely.  The regime is Iran is seen by pretty much every educated person (outside Iran as well as in it) as corrupt and hypocritical.  That's pretty much the definition of my strategy working well.

[grumbler]

I expect the backers will make sure the economy doesn't hit rock bottom. In return of course for actions that will please them.

I don't think that the backers have that kind of money.

[PJL]

I expect the backers will make sure the economy doesn't hit rock bottom. In return of course for actions that will please them.

I don't think that the backers have that kind of money.

Well if they don't, then nobody does. But I doubt Egypt is so badly done that a 20-30 billion pound loan at favourable rates can't solve the issue.

[alfred russel]

I agree that one shouldn't interrupt an enemy while making a mistake, and that one has to let the Islamists ride their economies down in flames, to discredit them as rational rulers.  To overthrow them, as the Egyptian military has, simply allows the Islamists to escape from their trap.  When the economy hits bottom, it will be the military holding the bag, not the Islamists.  The fable that the Islamists would have stopped the disaster had they not been overthrown will gain traction.

Your strategy hasn't worked so well in Iran.

Disagree completely.  The regime is Iran is seen by pretty much every educated person (outside Iran as well as in it) as corrupt and hypocritical.  That's pretty much the definition of my strategy working well.

I am sure that makes Egyptians feel better. "Lets go for the grumbler strategy. When the Islamists run our country into the ground and destroy any semblence of freedom over the next 30 years, educated people will recognize them as corrupt and hypocritical."

[Malthus]

I agree that one shouldn't interrupt an enemy while making a mistake, and that one has to let the Islamists ride their economies down in flames, to discredit them as rational rulers.  To overthrow them, as the Egyptian military has, simply allows the Islamists to escape from their trap.  When the economy hits bottom, it will be the military holding the bag, not the Islamists.  The fable that the Islamists would have stopped the disaster had they not been overthrown will gain traction.

Your strategy hasn't worked so well in Iran.

Disagree completely.  The regime is Iran is seen by pretty much every educated person (outside Iran as well as in it) as corrupt and hypocritical.  That's pretty much the definition of my strategy working well.

I am sure that makes Egyptians feel better. "Lets go for the grumbler strategy. When the Islamists run our country into the ground and destroy any semblence of freedom over the next 30 years, educated people will recognize them as corrupt and hypocritical."

30 years? A mere flash in the pan for grumbler. 

[Ed Anger]

Paris is worth a mass death sentence.

I laughed. 

[Sheilbh]

Your strategy hasn't worked so well in Iran.

The Muslim Brotherhood aren't the same as the Iranian regime. Nowhere near.

In the 18 months that the MB were in power the Khomeini regime had fully established the Islamic Republic, wiped out most domestic opponents, purged the universities and been invaded by Iraq.

As I said at the time of the coup the Brotherhood either didn't want to establish a dictatorship, or were as incompetent in that as everything else.

[grumbler]

Well if they don't, then nobody does. But I doubt Egypt is so badly done that a 20-30 billion pound loan at favourable rates can't solve the issue.

I believe that it is.  Such a loan would delay the day of reckoning, perhaps, but still wouldn't avoid it.  What Egypt needs is jobs, not cash.