Ebola and other Epidemics, Inadequate Healthcare Threatens Millions

Started by mongers, March 23, 2014, 04:48:59 PM

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PJL

Quote from: Liep on October 21, 2014, 03:10:14 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 03:09:07 PM
Quote from: Liep on October 21, 2014, 02:59:36 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 02:57:11 PM
My prediction. 60,000 dead before it's controlled (will take a year for cumulative deaths to stabilise).

Are we making a pool?

It's not just a guess, it's a prediction based on the total cases & deaths so far, with various calculations. It'll end up infecting about 1.6 million according to my model (but once vaccination programs are up and running  the death rate will fall dramatically) by the end of 2017.

Of course this is just reported cases & deaths, and it could be that both figures could be ten times worse.

So it's a guess.

It's a calculated guess..

Barrister

Quote from: derspiess on October 21, 2014, 03:00:45 PM
Quote from: Liep on October 21, 2014, 02:59:36 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 02:57:11 PM
My prediction. 60,000 dead before it's controlled (will take a year for cumulative deaths to stabilise).

Are we making a pool?

I guess we are now.  I'll take 70,000.

I'll take 70,001.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Liep

Quote from: Barrister on October 21, 2014, 03:13:10 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 21, 2014, 03:00:45 PM
Quote from: Liep on October 21, 2014, 02:59:36 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 02:57:11 PM
My prediction. 60,000 dead before it's controlled (will take a year for cumulative deaths to stabilise).

Are we making a pool?

I guess we are now.  I'll take 70,000.

I'll take 70,001.

Poor choice, you're out when someone calls 70,002.
"Af alle latterlige Ting forekommer det mig at være det allerlatterligste at have travlt" - Kierkegaard

"JamenajmenømahrmDÆ!DÆ! Æhvnårvaæhvadlelæh! Hvor er det crazy, det her, mand!" - Uffe Elbæk

alfred russel

Quote from: Barrister on October 21, 2014, 03:13:10 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 21, 2014, 03:00:45 PM
Quote from: Liep on October 21, 2014, 02:59:36 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 02:57:11 PM
My prediction. 60,000 dead before it's controlled (will take a year for cumulative deaths to stabilise).

Are we making a pool?

I guess we are now.  I'll take 70,000.

I'll take 70,001.

I'll take 420,420.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Admiral Yi

Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 03:09:07 PM
It's not just a guess, it's a prediction based on the total cases & deaths so far, with various calculations. It'll end up infecting about 1.6 million according to my model (but once vaccination programs are up and running  the death rate will fall dramatically) by the end of 2017.

Of course this is just reported cases & deaths, and it could be that both figures could be ten times worse.

I thought vaccines were supposed to prevent infection.  You make it sound like they prevent infected people from dying.

crazy canuck

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 21, 2014, 05:22:30 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 03:09:07 PM
It's not just a guess, it's a prediction based on the total cases & deaths so far, with various calculations. It'll end up infecting about 1.6 million according to my model (but once vaccination programs are up and running  the death rate will fall dramatically) by the end of 2017.

Of course this is just reported cases & deaths, and it could be that both figures could be ten times worse.

I thought vaccines were supposed to prevent infection.  You make it sound like they prevent infected people from dying.

Vaccines are designed to prevent infection and in some cases if the vaccine is administered soon after an infection it can also help by jumpstarting the production of antibodies to fight the infection.

Josephus

Quote from: Grey Fox on October 21, 2014, 02:37:24 PM
Quote from: KRonn on October 21, 2014, 02:25:53 PM
Well, at least it's a start. Have airport personnel  checking for signs of Ebola, though hospital staff are sometimes wrong. Besides, what if a person has Ebola but is not yet symptomatic?

Then it's basically's Schroeders Ebola.

:lmfao:
Civis Romanus Sum<br /><br />"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011


mongers

Quote from: Barrister on October 21, 2014, 03:13:10 PM
Quote from: derspiess on October 21, 2014, 03:00:45 PM
Quote from: Liep on October 21, 2014, 02:59:36 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 02:57:11 PM
My prediction. 60,000 dead before it's controlled (will take a year for cumulative deaths to stabilise).

Are we making a pool?

I guess we are now.  I'll take 70,000.

I'll take 70,001.

You know if we had a journalist on the board, they might take this out of context and write a headline something like "Sick internet trolls, bet on Ebola death toll"  - Daily mail calls for minimum 2 year jail sentence for internet sickos.   :P
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Josephus

Civis Romanus Sum<br /><br />"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011

jimmy olsen

Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 02:57:11 PM
My prediction. 60,000 dead before it's controlled (will take a year for cumulative deaths to stabilise).

200,000 cases in West Africa by Christams, minimum.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

jimmy olsen

It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

garbon

Doctor in NYC being tested for ebola who had been in west africa, then apparently "quarantined" himself at home in Harlem.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

derspiess

Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 21, 2014, 07:45:54 PM
Quote from: PJL on October 21, 2014, 02:57:11 PM
My prediction. 60,000 dead before it's controlled (will take a year for cumulative deaths to stabilise).

200,000 cases in West Africa by Christams, minimum.

MERYYR CHRISTAMS
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

derspiess

Quote from: garbon on October 23, 2014, 04:03:20 PM
Doctor in NYC being tested for ebola who had been in west africa, then apparently "quarantined" himself at home in Harlem.

Wonder how he got into the country.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall