Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Grinning_Colossus]

Yes. For now. 

[Syt]

I slightly confused by the suggested Russian charge across southern Ukraine, even if they get there in good order and 'take' trans-denistra, which they already occupy (14th army??) they still end up with a narrow strip of land sandwiched between Moldova and SE Ukraine with limited access to the sea via a river.   

Wouldn't something a little bigger make more sense, given the effort involved and likely repercussions ?

Well, once that Moldovian strip is part of Russia, it would make sense to secure access to it by occupying the Eastern and Southern Ukraine to ensure access. A purely defensive measure, of course, to protect supply routes from the fascists in Kiev, to restore order in those anarchic provinces, and to protect the local Russians from prosecution. Yes, it would remove Ukraine from sea access, but they don't have a navy anymore, anyways, do they?

At least that's what would make sense in a game like Europa Universalis.

[Solmyr]

We should invite Putin to play Languish EU MP. At least nobody can complain that he doesn't engage in PvP.

[Grey Fox]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/24/world/europe/3-presidents-and-a-riddle-named-putin.html?hp&_r=0#/#time315_8525

Interesting piece on crazy Putin.

[derspiess]

http://rt.com/news/tymoshenko-calls-destroy-russia-917/

Yulia

[Queequeg]

I'm increasingly convinced that there's little/no realistic hope for Ukraine to become a functional, whole, democratic and economically successful nation.  Ukraine's population has done nothing but decline since 1991, and pensions now account for 18% of GDP and that's inevitably going to go up.  It's just not going to be able to survive the upheaval caused by EU economic reforms that are going to de-industrialize the economy but there's really no chance whatsoever that the EU or America will provide Marshall Plan-esque comprehensive investment, or that Ukraine's demographic, geographic or insanely corrupt political situation would make such foreign investment successful.   

[Valmy]

Now that you put it that way Spellus maybe we should just let the Russians take the whole thing.  It could be a poison pill.

[PJL]

I'm increasingly convinced that there's little/no realistic hope for Ukraine to become a functional, whole, democratic and economically successful nation.  Ukraine's population has done nothing but decline since 1991, and pensions now account for 18% of GDP and that's inevitably going to go up.  It's just not going to be able to survive the upheaval caused by EU economic reforms that are going to de-industrialize the economy but there's really no chance whatsoever that the EU or America will provide Marshall Plan-esque comprehensive investment, or that Ukraine's demographic, geographic or insanely corrupt political situation would make such foreign investment successful.   

The thing that really shocked me about how bad Ukraine's economy is, is that it's GDP per capita is lower than Belarus and Kazakhstan. Hardly a good sign.

[Queequeg]

Frankly speaking I don't think that's a completely horrible idea.  This will be a substantial drain on Russian resources and continue to completely alienate themselves from the global community.  They'll sacrifice all hopes of modernization and economic integration so they could gain some measure of control over Eastern European Ohio. 

[Queequeg]

The thing that really shocked me about how bad Ukraine's economy is, is that it's GDP per capita is lower than Belarus and Kazakhstan. Hardly a good sign.

Kazakhstan has a lot of natural resources, a well-educated population that is almost entirely secular and has close economic ties with both China and Russia.  Belarus is really surprising though. 

[Queequeg]

Integrating Ukraine in to NATO sounds like a completely, totally horrible idea though.  Article 5 would mean that we'd automatically be involved if Eastern Ukraine ever tried to rebel against a Svoboda-esque nationalist party in Kiev. 

[Admiral Yi]

Integrating Ukraine in to NATO sounds like a completely, totally horrible idea though.  Article 5 would mean that we'd automatically be involved if Eastern Ukraine ever tried to rebel against a Svoboda-esque nationalist party in Kiev.

?  Does Article 5 involve internal security matters?

[Queequeg]

Russian tanks would roll in to Kharkiv with the first shot fired. 

[Barrister]

Integrating Ukraine in to NATO sounds like a completely, totally horrible idea though.  Article 5 would mean that we'd automatically be involved if Eastern Ukraine ever tried to rebel against a Svoboda-esque nationalist party in Kiev.

You've been listening to too much RT.  Svoboda stories are vastly overblown.

[Queequeg]

I'm talking 10-15 years from now after the near-inevitable disorders caused by economic reform.