Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Malthus]

Integrating Ukraine in to NATO sounds like a completely, totally horrible idea though.  Article 5 would mean that we'd automatically be involved if Eastern Ukraine ever tried to rebel against a Svoboda-esque nationalist party in Kiev.

No, as Article 5 applies to foreign invasions - not internal revolts.

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

[Queequeg]

Integrating Ukraine in to NATO sounds like a completely, totally horrible idea though.  Article 5 would mean that we'd automatically be involved if Eastern Ukraine ever tried to rebel against a Svoboda-esque nationalist party in Kiev.

No, as Article 5 applies to foreign invasions - not internal revolts.

Russia has already proven that it believes it has carte blanche to defend "ethnic Russians" from pretend violence.  Imagine real violence?

[Malthus]

Integrating Ukraine in to NATO sounds like a completely, totally horrible idea though.  Article 5 would mean that we'd automatically be involved if Eastern Ukraine ever tried to rebel against a Svoboda-esque nationalist party in Kiev.

No, as Article 5 applies to foreign invasions - not internal revolts.

Russia has already proven that it believes it has carte blanche to defend "ethnic Russians" from pretend violence.  Imagine real violence?

So what you are really saying is that we'd automatically be involved if Russia suddenly decided to invade Ukraine on some trumped-up pretext - which is of course true: protecting members against invasion being the whole point of an alliance like NATO.

[Queequeg]

As previously stated, in my scenario the Ukrainian East would have legitimate grievances against Kiev, either cultural-linguistic or, almost certainly, economic.  I don't want human life to end on this planet so we can support the aspirations of 1/3rd of Ukraine to rule over another 1/3rd. 

[The Larch]

I read a bit on Ukranian economy the other day after seeing the quotes about it being in worse shape than Belarus. Apparently black economy is so out of whack that for several years the country hasn't been able to crunch realistic numbers to evaluate their macroeconomic performance. That coupled with corruption and the huge hit it took in 2008 explains the terrible numbers they have nowadays. Looking on the bright side, the potential for improvement is huge.

Also, Belarus' own numbers might not be exactly beliveable either.

[Queequeg]

Where's the improvement going to come from?

[The Larch]

Where's the improvement going to come from?

From improving governance, reducing corruption and receiving foreign investments.

[Queequeg]

Maybe we'll find a Ukrainian Cincinnatus who will win an election, not enrich himself, leave after 10 years, help bring up the birth rate and encourage immigrants (who will, for some reason, be willing to go to Ukraine), and there will be massive infrastructure and economic investment that will help to alleviate the pain from the effective deindustrialization of the Donbass.

But honestly?  None of those are likely; together they seem about as likely as me getting a date with Rooney Mara in the next 8 months. 

[The Larch]

The EU carrot has some success stories behind the former Iron Curtain under its belt, Ukraine might prove the biggest challenge yet but it shouldn't shrug from it, these guys have gone through hell because of it and they shouldn't be left out in the cold. Always thinking in long term, though. They're not going to turn into Poland in a couple of years.

Russia would have to stop acting like a huge dick some day, though.

[Queequeg]

Where's the improvement going to come from?

From improving governance, reducing corruption and receiving foreign investments.

Why are foreigners going to invest?  It's incredibly corrupt, labor is expensive, the labor force is small and shrinking, and there's massive political instability even without the threat of the Russians coming in.  You'd also have to ship everything across the entirety of Poland or else the Carpathians to reach European markets. 

And besides that, even if it works, the investment is going to be in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk.  The Donbass is going to be hit really, really hard and the money is going to go to the West.  It'd be really hard for a nation with a functional political establishment to pull that off, and Ukraine's is one of the worst in Europe and makes Russia's look competent. 

[The Larch]

Labour expensive? Average salary is around 300 €.

[Admiral Yi]

You'd also have to ship everything across the entirety of Poland or else the Carpathians to reach European markets. 

Now that we've made contact with them we can share the technology of: boat.

[Queequeg]

Then why would it be cheaper to produce things in Ukraine than, say, SE Asia? 

[Admiral Yi]

Then why would it be cheaper to produce things in Ukraine than, say, SE Asia?

SE Asia is the cheapest production locale in the world; yet we still find production miraculously occurring in other places.

[The Larch]

Why in the world would transportation be an issue? Trade already happens all over Europe through road and train, not even taking into account short range sea shipping.